Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The EG main contract experienced significant fluctuations, first dropping sharply and then rebounding with a narrowing decline. However, due to the weak coal, the rebound amplitude of EG was less than that of other pure oil-based products. The main reasons were Trump's statement that the war was basically over and the news that the G7 planned to jointly release crude oil reserves to supplement the urgent shortage of crude oil in the market, which led to a significant adjustment in crude oil prices. Releasing strategic reserves can only reduce the slope of crude oil price increase, and the fundamental issue lies in the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the war has not completely stopped, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed normal navigation. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of market fluctuations [1]. - On the domestic supply side, the load of domestic ethylene glycol decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. In terms of overseas supply, as China imports a large proportion of EG from the Middle East, imports are expected to be further reduced under the influence of the Iranian situation. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the loads of polyester and weaving are gradually recovering. The continuous increase in raw material prices recently has also driven certain speculative demand and inventory reduction. The inventory pressure of various polyester products is not large, and the short - term price increase is relatively healthy. However, if the cost - side price remains high for a long time, attention also needs to be paid to whether it will have a negative feedback effect such as production reduction on the downstream [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,305 yuan/ton (a change of - 292 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 6.35%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,188 yuan/ton (a change of - 622 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 12.93%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 2 yuan/ton (a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous day) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 82 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 9 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 109 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 551 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No relevant information provided. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate No relevant information provided. Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 1.068 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons). The main ports continued to accumulate inventory last week, and the current inventory was still relatively high. According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 78,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 12,000 tons [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,764 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,663 yuan/ton (up 38 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis was - 114 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 58 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 955 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 93.5 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 11 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 3 tons. From February 9th to 23rd, the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China was 18.1 tons, and that at the secondary ports was 5.8 tons [1] - On the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol is at a high level. There is still a large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. Satellite plans to switch production in February. Attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase. Overseas supply pressure will ease around the end of February after the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, but it is still high from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have declined rapidly, and the rigid demand support has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [1][6][8] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the gross profit of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol production, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol. Data sources include Flush, Longzhong, and CCF [10][12][17] 3.3 International Price Difference - It shows the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), with data from Longzhong [20] 3.4 Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - It presents the sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the loads of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. Data sources are mainly CCF [21][26][27] 3.5 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory at East China ports, including overall and specific port inventories, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at East China ports. Data sources are CCF and Longzhong [30][33][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] 2. Core Views - In the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,733 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton or -0.16% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,625 yuan/ton (a change of -10 yuan/ton or -0.28% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -110 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -$56/ton (a month-on-month increase of $1/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -939 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 935,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 38,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 110,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 30,000 tons. From February 9th to 23rd, the planned total arrivals at the main ports in East China were 181,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 58,000 tons [1] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the domestic supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February, and attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will be alleviated around the end of February. The pressure from January to February is still high, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the spot basis of ethylene glycol in East China [6][8] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the gross profit of ethylene-based ethylene glycol, the gross profit of coal-based syngas ethylene glycol, the gross profit of naphtha-integrated ethylene glycol, the gross profit of methanol-based ethylene glycol, the total load of ethylene glycol, and the load of syngas-based ethylene glycol [10][14][16] 3.3 International Price Difference - The report includes a figure on the international price difference of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [19] 3.4 Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the sales of filament, the sales of staple fiber, the polyester load, the direct-spun filament load, the polyester staple fiber load, and the polyester bottle chip load [20][23][27] 3.5 Inventory Data - The report includes figures on the inventory of ethylene glycol in the ports of East China, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Ningbo Port, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol in the ports of East China [30][33][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The sharp rise of EG on Thursday was mainly due to positive market sentiment. Funds regarded the chemical industry as an undervalued long - allocation sector, leading to a joint increase in stocks and futures. The current price of the EG main contract is at a historical low, combined with the implementation of Saudi device maintenance and the fermentation of the news that the shipment volume from January to February will decrease, resulting in a significant increase [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that on the domestic supply side, the reduction of the syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol production load is at a high level. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of devices in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February, but the near - term arrivals are still concentrated. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in January have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load may decline rapidly, weakening the support of rigid demand [2]. - For trading strategies, the short - term view on a single position is neutral. The current price is in the historical low range, with some buying support, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February is still relatively large, which may improve after March. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. For inter - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3847 yuan/ton (a change of +158 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +4.28%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3678 yuan/ton (a change of +97 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +2.71%), and the basis of EG spot in East China was -109 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Not provided in the given content Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market analysis shows that the closing price of the EG main contract was 3689 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton or +0.41% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 3581 yuan/ton (a change of -14 yuan/ton or -0.39% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +2 yuan/ton) [1]. - The production profit data indicates that the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -83 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -6 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - made EG was -958 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -31 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 79.5 tons (a month-on-month decrease of -0.7 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (a month-on-month increase of +2.8 tons). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The overall supply - demand logic of the fundamentals is that on the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas - made load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is still rising at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply and weakening demand from January to February. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will be relieved after February, but the import volume contraction is slow, and the pressure in January is still high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans will be gradually implemented in mid - January, and the weaving load and polyester load may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - The strategies are as follows: for single positions, it is neutral in the short term and a short - side allocation in the medium term. The current price is not high, and there is certain buying support at the low level, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market increases, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large under the supply pressure, and the import volume contraction is slow, so the overall trend is weakening in a volatile manner. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605. For inter - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the ethylene glycol spot basis in East China, sourced from Longzhong and CCF, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][6][8] Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on ethylene - made EG gross profit, coal - based syngas - made EG gross profit, naphtha - integrated EG gross profit, and methanol - made EG gross profit are included. The data sources are Flush, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [10][14][15]. - Figures on the total EG load and the syngas - made EG load are included, with data from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][17] International Price Difference - The report contains a figure on the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Figures on filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle chip load are included, with data from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][23][24] Inventory Data - Figures on ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, and the combined inventory of Jiangyin + Changzhou Port and Shanghai + Changshu Port are included, with data from CCF and Longzhong, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [28][31][33]. - Figures on the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol at East China ports are included, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish allocation; EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread; long PTA short MEG [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG price dropped rapidly, but the basis rebounded. The intraday ethylene glycol market trended weakly, and polyester factories actively participated in price fixing at low levels. The spot basis in the market strengthened. The production profits of ethylene - made EG and coal - based syngas - made EG decreased. The inventory data from different sources showed different trends, and the main port was expected to continue accumulating inventory. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol was at a high level and continued to increase, and the overseas import pressure would ease after February. The demand was expected to weaken with the approaching Spring Festival. Overall, the market was expected to be weak in a volatile manner [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3674 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.16%), and the spot price in the East China market was 3595 yuan/ton (a change of - 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.18%). The spot basis in East China was - 112 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 77 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 4 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was - 927 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 79.5 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue accumulating inventory [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The EG market continued to accumulate inventory this week. The production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton. The domestic supply load of ethylene glycol has risen to over 70%, and the import pressure will ease after February. The downstream demand is weakening, and the polyester load has declined [1][2] - The current price is not high, but the downstream implicit inventory has reached a high level, and the inventory at the port is rising. The pressure of new production is large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large, so the rebound space is limited [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3846 yuan/ton, with a change of - 33 yuan/ton (- 0.85%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3698 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.40%), and the spot basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton (a net increase of 1 dollar/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton (a net increase of 24 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the given text Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined due to weakened profitability [2] Inventory Data - As of January 8, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from Monday. According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 844,000 tons (a net increase of 25,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 645,000 tons (a net increase of 28,000 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and inventory accumulation at the main ports is expected to continue [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - EG load has risen above 70%. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - On the supply side, as maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January. On the overseas supply side, the arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, the polyester load remains strong with low inventory, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. - The pressure of new production is large. As port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. The pressure of inventory build-up will be alleviated if short-term maintenance is implemented, but the pressure of inventory build-up from January to February is still large, and further production cuts are needed for balance [3]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - As maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January [2]. International Spread - No specific content provided. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Inventory at a low level, the polyester load remains strong, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - The arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view, month - spread, cost, device changes, downstream demand, and processing profit are rated neutral; spot and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view, month - spread, spot, import, and downstream demand, and supply - demand balance are rated neutral; device changes and processing profit are rated cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Core view and device changes, and import, and downstream demand are rated neutral; month - spread and spot, and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bearish; processing profit is rated cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - PTA: The near - end is tight, short - term supply - demand changes little, expected to destock in December. PXN at a high level reflects strong expectations, and investors should buy on dips [5][70] - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. High PXN valuation reflects expectations, short - term is expected to fluctuate, and investors should buy on dips [6][95] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The sustainability of the seasonal inventory - accumulation - driven rise needs to be observed, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][138] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 85%, 69%, and 74% respectively. New orders are weakening, and finished - product inventory is rising [9] - As of December 5, polyester load is around 91.8%, cash flow is at a low level, and average inventory is around 16 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not high and is slightly rising. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, polyester operating rate remains high, and overall cash flow performance is average [21] - Polyester overall profitability is average. The profits of filament POY and FDY are compressed, while staple fiber profitability is acceptable [22] - As of December 5, POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber inventories are 16.2, 26.8, 16.5, and 8.2 days respectively [32] - It is estimated that the polyester load in November and December will be 91% and 90% respectively. In the future, due to low inventory pressure and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [48] 3.2 PTA - PTA devices are under planned maintenance, with a significant amount of maintenance. YS Ningbo, Dahua, Hainan, Ineos, Nengtou, and Dushan 1 are under maintenance [51] - As of December 5, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 216.9 tons, slightly decreasing. Inventory pressure before the end of the year is not high [55] - PTA balance table shows little change, with the near - end tight. Short - term supply - demand and expectations are good, and the valuation has reacted. Investors should buy on dips [70] - The net short positions of foreign - controlled futures company seats have decreased [71] 3.3 PX - U.S. gasoline inventory has rebounded from the bottom, and gasoline cracking has declined from a high level [81] - Blending for gasoline is average, and short - process profitability in Asia has slightly improved [83] - The aromatics price spread between the U.S. and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread between the U.S. and Asia is 212 yuan, and the xylene price spread is 150 dollars. Xylene tariffs have been exempted [88] - Domestic PX load remains stable at 88.2%. Wushi Petrochemical has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has slightly decreased its load, Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. Asian load is 78.6%, and GS is reducing its load with a subsequent disproportionation shutdown plan [90] - The PX balance shows a loose supply - demand balance. PXN is around 280 dollars, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate. Investors should buy on dips [95] - The PX outer - inner price spread has stabilized, the PX 1 - 5 month - spread remains stable, and TA05 processing fee has slightly rebounded from the bottom [96] - Industrial chain profits have slightly recovered from a low level. Valuation is mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level, while PTA processing fee remains low. There is an opportunity to expand PTA processing fee after the demand off - season [105] 3.4 Ethylene Glycol - As of December 5, the total MEG load is 72.8%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance has increased, and coal - based units have restarted after maintenance [107] - Domestic MEG load is 72.95%, and syngas - based load is 72.5%. Sanjiang plans to reduce its load, Maoming Petrochemical has shut down, Sinochem Quanzhou is shut down, CNOOC Shell Phase 2 and Fude plan to conduct maintenance on the 8th, and Shenghong's 100 - ton unit will be shut down until Q2 2026. Coal - chemical maintenance units are restarting one after another [114] - MEG profits are compressed. Oil - based units remain in losses, and coal - based losses have increased. There is an increase in oil - based unit maintenance on the margin [115] - Overseas device maintenance and load reduction have increased. 11 - 12 - month imports are estimated to be 650,000 tons each month, and imports may decline in January - February [125] - As of December 8, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area is about 819,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons from last week. The actual arrival from December 1 - 7 is 163,000 tons, and the expected arrival from December 8 - 14 is 155,000 tons. Port inventory is expected to rise. Polyester factories' MEG raw material inventory days are 13.8 days [133] - There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate at a low level [138]