1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Maintain a neutral stance on domestic supplies, but keep an eye on cost changes due to low inventories and unexpected overseas operations [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of the main ports in East China increased this week [1] - In terms of supply, the domestic load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Overseas, the restart of some units has not gone smoothly, and the increase in EG imports has been lower than expected. In terms of demand, the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly alleviated, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build-up in August, with a lack of sustainability in the increase of port inventories, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - In July, there was a concentrated restocking at the terminal, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly alleviated. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 553,000 tons (an increase of 37,000 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 535,000 tons (an increase of 49,000 tons month-on-month). As of August 14, the total inventory of MEG in the ports of East China was 534,500 tons, an increase of 57,100 tons from Monday and 48,800 tons from Thursday of last week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - In July, the ethylene glycol (EG) price rose and then slightly declined, with the spot basis oscillating downward. The price was influenced by factors such as anti - involution policy expectations, coal price fluctuations, port inventory, and typhoon - affected shipping schedules [2][10]. - Domestic supply of EG is expected to increase. In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production, and the EG load steadily recovered in July, with the syngas - based load likely to further increase in August [3][13]. - Overseas supply shows different trends in various regions. The total EG imports from July to September are estimated to be 67, 60, and 65 million tons respectively, mainly due to the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia and Malaysia [4][37][38]. - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. The demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69]. - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, and in August, it is expected to have a slight build - up of about 8 million tons, with the East China port inventory expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. - The trading strategy suggests a cautious and bearish stance on the unilateral position due to weakening market sentiment and coal price decline. There are no suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period strategies [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EG Price and Basis Structure Review - In July, the EG price rose and then slightly declined, and the spot basis oscillated downward. The price was affected by macro - sentiment improvement, coal price rebound, and later by factors such as coal position limits, port low inventory, and oil price rebound [2][10]. EG Domestic Fundamental - **EG Subsequent Domestic New - added Capacity**: In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production. The 60 - million - ton Sichuan Zhengdakai device was put into production in May, and the remaining two sets are expected to be put into production in Q4 [3][13]. - **EG Operating Rate and Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: The EG load steadily recovered in July at a rate lower than expected. The syngas - based load has returned to a relatively high level, and it is expected to further increase in August under high - profit conditions, leading to an increase in domestic EG supply [3][15]. - **China EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. EG Outer - Market Situation - **Overseas EG Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: In North America, most devices restarted in July, but US imports decreased due to tariffs. Canadian devices operate normally, and the Shell 50 - million - ton/year device plans a 45 - day maintenance in September. In the Middle East, Saudi devices restarted in June but had power - related shutdowns in July. Iranian imports are expected to be 9 million tons in July, 6 million tons in August, and rebound in September. In Asia, Malaysian devices restarted, and Taiwan devices operate at full - load. South Korean imports are relatively low [37][38]. - **Overseas EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. - **EG International Price Difference**: No specific analysis content in the provided text, only the title and some related chart information are given. EG Inventory Trend - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, with a slight decrease in port visible inventory and an increase in invisible inventory. In August, with increased domestic supply and decreased imports, a slight build - up of about 8 million tons is expected, and the East China port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. Downstream Weaving and Polyester Situation - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. Currently, orders have not improved significantly, and the reduction in filament inventory is mainly due to downstream transfer. However, the short - term reduction pressure on polyester load has decreased, and the demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market analysis shows that in the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton). With market news calming down, EG fluctuated widely, and the basis rose under the influence of typhoons. In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Regarding inventory, according to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal sectors have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal situation, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure for the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Strong due to the concentrated release of macro - policies; Medium - term: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The news of the upcoming stable growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of obsolete EG production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, with a relatively limited impact. The cost of coal has increased due to the production inspection notice [1] - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2] - In terms of supply, the domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. In terms of demand, terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the demand expectation is weak, but the actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals will increase moderately in late July [2] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement [2] 3.3 International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - In the off - season, terminal inventory is high, and the demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of filament maintenance, and the actual decline space may be limited [2] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or -0.25% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton or +0.16% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month). The news of the upcoming work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries boosted the market, but the impact on EG was limited as the proportion of backward production capacity over 20 years old was only 6.6%, and most were already shut down or operating at low loads. The cost of coal increased due to the production inspection notice [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (down 2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to rise moderately early next week [2]. - For the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - made glycol load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal production, and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery was less than expected due to the poor restart of Saudi Arabian plants. On the demand side, terminal inventory was high and the willingness to stock up was low during the off - season, with weak demand expectations. However, the actual decline in demand may be limited, and the supply - demand structure in July was still favorable, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals would increase moderately in late July [2]. - In terms of strategy, the short - term performance is strong under the concentrated release of macro - policies, and the medium - term view is neutral. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data or analysis of international spreads is provided in the summary part of the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - There is no detailed analysis of downstream sales, production, and operating rates in the summary part of the report. Inventory Data - MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (CCF data, down 2.0 tons month - on - month) and 49.4 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival last week was 5.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15.7 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain fluctuated and declined following costs. The EG futures and spot prices decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG production is expected to increase as the maintenance period has passed, and the load will gradually return to a high level in July. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. On the demand side, it is expected to be weak due to high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness during the off - season. The short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure will increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the EG East China spot price and basis, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis at 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Market analysis shows that due to the expected policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, leading to a rebound in EG prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure for inventory to rise with the return of imports [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good. However, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot in the market will increase. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants are gradually restarting, with concentrated arrivals of foreign ships at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4279 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4347 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 35 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 54.2 tons (up 3.6 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure on inventory rebound [1] - The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still benign, but the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented after the warehouse receipts are cancelled. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of July. The demand is currently strong, but several large bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price and Basis - The report involves the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, with specific price and basis changes as described in the core view [1][5][6] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profit of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas - based, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol [9][13][15] 3.3 International Price Difference - It shows the international price difference of ethylene glycol between the US FOB and China CFR [16][18] 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - It covers the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [17][19][21] 3.5 Inventory Data - It includes the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol in East China ports [29][30][38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Views - The market has returned to normal, and the EG price is oscillating. The EG main contract closed at 4323 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4396 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in East China was 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and overseas supply is also expected to increase. The demand is currently strong, but the demand is expected to be weak due to the concentrated maintenance plans of several large bottle - chip manufacturers in early July [2]. Directory Summary Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4323 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4396 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in East China was 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 68 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars/ton. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 95 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 62.2 tons, up 0.6 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 53.7 tons, down 2.7 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 7.7 tons, and the port inventory was stable. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 6.2 tons, which is relatively small, and the port inventory may decline again [1].