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关注淡季补库涨价品种PC、染料、粘胶,化工景气度有望持续上行
China Post Securities· 2026-02-10 04:12
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4729.08 points, down 4.35% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.59% [18] - The domestic PC market has entered a price increase cycle driven by a tight supply-demand balance, with prices rising significantly since the beginning of 2026 [6] - The price of disperse dyes has shown strong upward momentum, with significant increases driven by rising costs of key raw materials [8] Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry index has seen a decline, with 2 sub-industries rising and 23 falling as of February 6, 2026 [21] - The domestic PC market has experienced a price increase of 500-1000 CNY/ton, with production margins rising by 48.58% [6] - The supply-demand balance in the PC market is expected to improve due to a lack of new production capacity in 2026 [6] Sub-Industry Performance - The synthetic resin and other rubber products sectors have shown positive performance, while viscose and coal chemical sectors have declined significantly [21] - The average operating rate for viscose short fibers has remained high, with a total inventory of 96,600 tons as of February 6, 2026, indicating potential for price increases [9] - The tire industry has seen a decrease in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.45% and semi-steel tire rates at 72.09% [38] Price Trends - The price of disperse dyes has increased from 18,000 CNY/ton to 21,000 CNY/ton within a month, driven by rising costs of key intermediates [8] - The average industry operating rate for polyester filament is approximately 79.97%, with a notable decrease in demand leading to a cautious market outlook [31] - Key chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant increases while others have seen declines [26][29]