策略对话化工：构建商品牛市轮动框架，看好化工大周期 机遇 20260226 摘要 中国 GDP 增速放缓至 4%-5%，全球经济增长约 3%，化工行业需求增 速预计在 3%-6%之间，需求端并非主要矛盾，核心在于供给侧受双碳 政策和碳指标稀缺性约束，高碳排行业扩产受限。 化工行业可能向"资源化"或"有色化"演进，供应链受阻导致价格长 周期上行。双碳政策和碳市场扩围是关键，2027 年化工石化或纳入碳 交易市场，碳排放额度成为稀缺资源，行业内部将出现分化。 化工股自 2025 年三季度上涨约 40%-50%，但部分化工品期货与现货 涨幅不大，是市场风偏和流动性充裕下的预期定价，资金倾向于配置具 备长期价值的高赔率资产。 化工产品盈利处于底部区间，下行空间有限，安全边际较高。2024 年 开始上市公司资本开支下降，2027 年前后仍在底部徘徊，反映扩产动 力转弱，供给端出现拐点特征。 部分子行业 2026 年处于产能扩张尾声，另一些 2027 年进入尾声。在 "产能增速走低"与"需求仍有增长"的组合下，供需改善确定性提升， 价格上行概率增加，行业处于"临界点"附近。 市场分歧在于景气何时到来，而非是否存在。行业景 ...

化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 竞争 化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 国家聚焦内需+双碳赋能，有一个落地，都是利好；短期都没有的话，那上行节奏会缓一些，趋势不变 中长期怎么看？ 预计景气长周期上行，驱动力不是全球需求高增长，和过去的周期有些不同了（参考有色），而是企业主动扩产 放缓+政策限制低效扩张，供需差逐步收窄，从过剩到平衡再到紧张。 稍微叠加些自律，景气提前到来，区别于之前仅是供需平衡表数据主导下的行情。 少产一点，可以赚更多的钱，还费那 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月24日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 ➢ 1.1月通胀降温或是"烟雾弹"——海外观察：美国2026年1月CPI数据 ➢ 2.多因素推动社融与M2保持较快增长——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十三） ➢ 3.关注节后商品补库存行情，持续看好科技应用方向不变——资产配置周报（2026/02/16- 2026/02/20） ➢ 4.剔除政府关停影响后，美国经济依然保持相对稳健——海外观察：美国2025年四季度 GDP数据点评 ➢ 5.春节假期期间重要事件一览 ➢ 1.美国2025年第四季度实际GDP年化初值环比升1.4%，预期升3.0% ➢ 2.美国最高法院2月20日判决特朗普关税政策违法 ➢ 3.特朗普下令实施临时性10%全球关税 ➢ 4.高市早苗连任日本新任首相 ➢ 5.美联储1月会议纪要显示降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bailong Oriental (601339), indicated that the cost of dyes constitutes a low proportion of its overall production costs, suggesting that fluctuations in dye prices have a limited impact on the company's overall production costs and gross profit margins [1] Group 1 - The company has a low cost proportion of dyes in its production [1] - Dye price fluctuations have a limited effect on the company's overall production costs [1] - The impact on gross profit margins from dye price changes is minimal [1]

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector is experiencing a correction, with the CSI sub-industry index down by 0.82% as of 10:28 on February 13, 2026, despite some stocks like Enjie and Tianci Materials showing gains of 4.65% and 3.10% respectively [1] - Sub-sectors such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins are seeing an upward trend, with leading dye companies raising prices due to tight supply of core intermediates, and PVA prices increasing due to extreme weather affecting overseas facilities [1] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a dual opportunity of cyclical recovery and industrial upgrading in 2026, with traditional demand anticipated to recover moderately as domestic growth policies are expected to take effect [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical index account for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yalv Co [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical index, focusing on the new round of prosperity cycle under the "anti-involution" backdrop [2] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked fund (013527) to explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector [3]

Group 1 - The company typically engages in off-peak procurement of dyes, indicating a strategic approach to manage costs and supply [2] - Price transmission for dyes is influenced by downstream demand, suggesting that market supply and demand dynamics play a crucial role in pricing [2] - Different products have varying requirements, leading to differences in dyeing costs, which highlights the complexity of the dyeing industry [2]

Group 1 - The current price increase of dyes is expected to exceed market expectations, with prices likely to continue rising after the holiday as downstream operations resume [1] - The company's Q4 2025 performance slightly exceeds expectations, with analysts optimistic about the price increases of electrolyte hexafluorophosphate and additives contributing to the company's performance elasticity [1]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with specific sectors such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins showing signs of improvement, as indicated by a 2.2% increase in the Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) on February 11 [1] - Leading dye companies have raised prices due to tight supply of core intermediates, while PVA prices are increasing due to higher export orders following extreme weather affecting overseas facilities [1] - Vitamin prices are also rising as major manufacturers plan production halts for maintenance and increase their quotes, leading to tighter supply expectations post-holiday [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that includes listed companies from various sectors such as fertilizers, pesticides, and coatings, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and specialized chemical enterprises [1] - The index focuses on specific chemical products and technologies, aiming to highlight structural opportunities within the chemical industry [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, with a decrease of nearly 100 billion in half-day trading, indicating a state of observation among investors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a slight increase of 0.22%, but underlying issues are evident as trading activity diminishes [1] Sector Performance - The media and short drama gaming sectors, which were performing well previously, have seen a sharp decline, highlighting the volatility and risk associated with chasing high-performing stocks in the current market environment [3] - Conversely, sectors related to price increases, such as non-ferrous metals, rare earths, and chemical fibers, are attracting investment due to their potential for profit growth amid a vague overall market direction [3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain composure and avoid chasing high prices in sectors that have already surged, as the current low-volume market does not support sustained price increases [4] - It is crucial to monitor market sentiment, particularly in sectors that have recently underperformed, to assess whether they will continue to drag down overall market sentiment [4] - The current market conditions present an opportunity to optimize holdings, particularly for quality stocks with long-term potential that may have been unfairly impacted by market rotations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with price increases in various subcategories such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [2][3][10] Short-term Logic - The influx of capital into the chemical sector reflects market expectations of a turning point, supported by stable core costs like oil and coal prices, which provide a clear bottom support for chemical product prices [4][10] - The stabilization of raw material costs is crucial for the midstream chemical industry, as it narrows profit volatility and clarifies price support [4][6] Medium to Long-term Perspective - The chemical industry is undergoing significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, driven by domestic "anti-involution" policies and global capacity restructuring, leading to a shift from simple cyclical fluctuations to a combination of cyclical recovery and growth premium [5][6] - A profound "Supply-side Reform 2.0" is underway, with policies accelerating the elimination of outdated capacity and enhancing the competitive landscape among leading companies [6][10] Demand Dynamics - Traditional downstream sectors face pressure, but sectors like automotive and home appliances are expected to improve marginally due to policy support [7] - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy are driving new demand, creating a "second curve" of growth for the chemical sector [7][10] Investment Mapping - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) offers a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, capturing both cyclical recovery and structural upgrade benefits [8][9] - The ETF includes leading companies benefiting from "anti-involution" and global capacity restructuring, providing significant profit elasticity during industry recoveries [9] - The ETF's diversified approach mitigates risks associated with individual stocks and allows investors to capitalize on overall industry trends [9][10]