公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 【公司评论】 黄佳杰 联想集团（992，未评级）：量利双增，彰显供应链与经营韧性 | + 852 25321950 | | --- | | | | 供应链韧性和运营提效驱动利润率持续改善：25/26 财年第一季度收入同比增长 22%，整体毛利率 14.7%，同比下降 1.9pcts,主要由于 ISG 业务毛利率下降影响。 非香港财务准则口径经营利润 6.3 亿美元，同比增长 10%（香港财务准则经营利润 7.9 亿美元，同比+59%），非香港财务准则净利润 3.9 亿美元，同比增长 22%（香港 财务报告准则口径下净利润 5.1 亿美元，同比增长 108%），非香港财务报告准则调 整主要为认股权证非现金公允值的正 1.52 亿美元影响以及可换股债券的名义利 息支出 0.28 亿美元。 全球市场布局均衡且均稳健增长:中国区域业务（收入占比 22%）实现明显恢复， 收入同比增长 36%，IDG 业务在商用市场份额得以巩固，AIPC 渗透率接近 30%，ISG 业务实现高增长且带动盈利改善，SSG 业务实现了产品组合拓展和订单增长 ...

证券研究报告 行业专题报告 长城证券产业金融研究院 科技组首席分析师：唐泓翼 执业证书编号：S1070521120001 科技组分析师：秦裔甜 执业证书编号： S1070525070003 2025年08月15日 海外CSP加速AI建设，半导体需求奇点来临 一、趋势：AI需求真实且强劲，"硅基强智能奇点"到来 二、需求端：海外CSP加速AI建设，半导体需求奇点来临 三、供给端：25年晶圆厂稼动率有望回升至84%左右，NAND设备表现强劲 四、库存端：库存去化周期持续，预计至25年底存货天数恢复至105~110天合理水平 五、价格端：端侧AI落地驱动半导体需求，我们预计25年全球半导体ASP震荡回升 六、25年半导体市场研判：IMF下调25年全球GDP增速0.5pct至2.8%，测算得25年全球半导体销售额同比+3.1%，较原预期下修1.3pct 2 全球云服务厂商加码AI基建 先进制程需求持续高歌 评级：强于大市 (222,235,247) (15,54,159) (212,223,253) ⚫ AI需求持续强劲，25Q2全球半导体市场规模同比增长20%，环比增长8% ⚫ WSTS预计2025年全球半导体市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992) [3][8] Core Insights - Lenovo's FY25/26 Q1 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of $18.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and a net profit of $505 million, up 107.64% year-on-year, primarily due to non-cash gains from stock option valuation changes [8] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) showed strong performance in the PC segment, with revenue of $13.46 billion, a 17.84% increase year-on-year, and PC revenue alone reaching approximately $10 billion, a 22% increase, significantly outperforming the global PC shipment growth of 6.5% [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported a revenue of $4.29 billion, a 35.77% increase year-on-year, with AI infrastructure revenue growing by 155%, indicating strong demand and a positive outlook for future growth [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Lenovo are as follows: FY24/25 at $69.08 billion, FY25/26 at $79.49 billion, FY26/27 at $91.55 billion, and FY27/28 at $105.24 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% [7] - Net profit forecasts are projected to be $1.38 billion for FY24/25, $1.67 billion for FY25/26, $2.03 billion for FY26/27, and $2.43 billion for FY27/28, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [7] - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share, reaching $0.20 by FY27/28, with a net asset return rate projected to rise to 26.3% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a strong performance for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by AI-related demand and a robust global manufacturing strategy [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter reached 136.2 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the same period [2]. - Net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards increased by 22% to 28.16 billion RMB, while under Hong Kong standards, net profit surged by 108% to 36.6 billion RMB [2]. - Gross profit margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 14.7%, attributed to changes in product mix and lower margins in the infrastructure solutions business [7]. Market Position and Growth - Lenovo achieved a global PC market share of 24.8% in Q2 2025, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points year-on-year, with shipments reaching 16.97 million units, a 15.2% increase [4]. - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported revenue of 97.3 billion RMB, a 17.8% year-on-year growth, with non-PC business revenue now accounting for 47% of total revenue [4]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a robust revenue growth of 35.8%, significantly exceeding market expectations [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy aims to integrate personal and enterprise intelligence, positioning it as a key focus for the next decade [5]. - The company launched several "super intelligent agents" in May, marking a significant advancement in AI capabilities [5]. - The Chinese market, as Lenovo's global base, experienced over 35% revenue growth, contributing to a quarter of global revenue, with non-PC business revenue exceeding 54.9% [6].

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth for Q1 of the 2025/26 fiscal year, reaching 136.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The company is advancing its "mixed AI" strategy, aiming for long-term competitiveness in the AI era, with R&D expenses increasing by over 10% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - Non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit increased by 22% to 2.816 billion yuan, while net profit under Hong Kong standards surged by 108% to 3.66 billion yuan, primarily due to non-cash gains from stock price fluctuations [1][3] - The IDG smart device business group achieved revenue of 97.3 billion yuan, a 17.8% increase, with PC business growth at its fastest pace in 15 quarters [1][4] Business Segments - The ISG infrastructure solutions business group saw a revenue increase of 35.8%, while the SSG solution services business group reported a 19.8% revenue growth, achieving an operating profit margin of 22.2% [1] - Non-PC business revenue now accounts for 47% of total revenue, indicating a more balanced growth structure and supporting the company's mixed AI strategy [1] Market Trends - The global PC market is experiencing an unexpected recovery, with IDC reporting a 6.5% year-on-year increase in global PC shipments for Q2 2025 [3] - AIPC shipments accounted for over 30% of total PC shipments, with a projected 77% year-on-year growth in AIPC shipments by 2025 [2][4] Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is building a comprehensive AI product system centered around a hybrid cloud platform and intelligent management solutions to accelerate enterprise-level AI deployment [2] - The company is focusing on creating a unified AI entry point and exploring new intelligent experiences across devices and ecosystems [2][5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record high first quarter revenue of $18.8 billion, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [3][15] - Net income on a non-HKFRS basis increased by 22% to $389 million, while on an HKFRS basis, net income more than doubled to $500 million [4][16] - Non-PC revenue mix reached 47% of total revenues, indicating a significant diversification in revenue streams [5][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Intelligent Device Group (IDG) generated $13.5 billion in revenue, an 18% year-on-year growth, with PCs and related businesses growing by 19% [6][24] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved a record revenue of $2.3 billion, marking a 20% year-on-year increase with an operating margin of over 22% [10][29] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a 36% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $4.3 billion, although it recorded an operating loss of $86 million due to strategic investments [8][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, revenue surged by 36% year-on-year, driven by strong AI PC shipments and leadership in the commercial segment [18][19] - The Asia Pacific region, excluding China, experienced a 39% revenue growth, with significant market share gains in Japan and India [19] - The Americas saw PC market share gains for the ninth consecutive quarter, while EMEA recorded strong bookings in Device as a Service and Software Solutions [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing a hybrid AI strategy aimed at capitalizing on AI opportunities, with a focus on personal and enterprise AI innovations [5][11] - Continuous investment in R&D, which increased by 10% year-on-year to $524 million, is a priority to drive innovation and support the hybrid AI strategy [21][60] - The company aims to maintain its competitive edge through a unique ODM Plus model, combining in-house manufacturing with ODM to enhance flexibility and resilience [50][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating future uncertainties and emphasized the importance of maintaining market share and profitability despite external challenges [5][6] - The company anticipates continued growth in the PC and AI infrastructure markets, with a positive outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year [36][46] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to market shifts and investing in AI infrastructure to capture growth opportunities [9][10] Other Important Information - The company reported strong cash flow from operations of $1.2 billion, the highest in the past eleven quarters, and a free cash flow of $751 million [20] - The company is focused on building a comprehensive AI ecosystem, including partnerships with major tech firms to enhance its AI offerings [72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends for PC in Q3 and Q4 2025 - The company expects continued strong performance in the PC market, with good order visibility and a positive outlook for shipments [36] Question: Update on Middle East business progress - The company is ahead of schedule in building a manufacturing facility in the Middle East and expects to capture additional market share through local partnerships [39] Question: Drivers behind strong growth in SSG - The shift from CapEx to OpEx models is driving strong growth in Device as a Service and Infrastructure as a Service across all geographies [44] Question: Impact of tariff uncertainties on supply chain - The company has not seen significant impacts from tariff uncertainties due to its competitive business model and diversified manufacturing footprint [46][48] Question: Explanation of margin decline despite operating profits - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the growth of the ISG business, particularly in AI servers, which have lower margins compared to other segments [55] Question: R&D investment growth outlook - R&D remains a strategic priority, and the company plans to continue investing in innovation to drive growth across all business segments [60] Question: Market share gains in PCs and smartphones - The company has achieved significant market share gains in both segments, driven by innovation and operational excellence [61][66] Question: Hiring investment in ISG AI capabilities - The company is investing in expanding its AI product portfolio and sales coverage to capture revenue opportunities in the AI infrastructure market [70][72] Question: Key growth drivers for AI server sales - Growth is driven by demand across all segments and geographies, with a notable hypergrowth in China related to AI [75] Question: Strategy to gain share in AIPC market - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive product offerings and innovation to gain market share and expand margins in the AIPC market [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lenovo reported a record high first quarter revenue of $18.8 billion, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [3][16] - Net income on a non-HKFRS basis increased by 22% year-on-year to $389 million, while on an HKFRS basis, net income more than doubled to $500 million [4][17] - Non-PC revenue mix reached 47% of total group revenues, indicating a significant diversification in revenue streams [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated $13.5 billion in revenue, an 18% year-on-year increase, with PCs and related businesses growing by 19% [6][25] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved a record revenue of $2.3 billion, growing 20% year-on-year with an operating margin of 22% [11][30] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a 36% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $4.3 billion, driven by strong demand in both CSP and SMB segments [8][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, revenue surged by 36% year-on-year, with significant contributions from AI PC shipments [19] - The Asia Pacific region, excluding China, experienced a 39% year-on-year revenue growth, with market share gains in Japan and India [20] - In the Americas, Lenovo achieved PC market share gains for the ninth consecutive quarter, while EMEA saw record bookings in Device as a Service [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lenovo is executing a hybrid AI strategy aimed at capitalizing on AI opportunities, focusing on personal and enterprise AI innovations [5][12] - The company is committed to investing in AI infrastructure and R&D, with a 10% year-on-year increase in R&D spending to $524 million [22][61] - Lenovo aims to maintain its competitive edge through a unique ODM Plus model, combining in-house manufacturing with ODM to enhance flexibility and resilience [51][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating future uncertainties, highlighting strong order visibility and market demand for PCs [38] - The company remains focused on expanding market share and profitability despite short-term pressures on margins due to strategic investments [11][29] - Management emphasized the importance of continuous innovation and adaptation to market shifts, particularly in AI and infrastructure [10][12] Other Important Information - Lenovo's cash flow from operations reached $1.2 billion, marking the highest level in the past eleven quarters, with free cash flow rebounding to $751 million [20][21] - The company reported a significant increase in its AI infrastructure business, with revenues more than doubling year-on-year [18][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends for PC in Q3 and Q4 2025 - Management noted strong PC performance and optimistic outlook for the financial year, with good order visibility and growing demand [38] Question: Business progress in the Middle East - Lenovo is ahead of schedule in building a manufacturing facility in the Middle East, aiming to capture additional market share [42][44] Question: Drivers behind SSG growth - The shift from CapEx to OpEx models is driving strong growth in Device as a Service and Infrastructure as a Service across all geographies [46][48] Question: Impact of tariff uncertainties on supply chain - Management indicated minimal impact from tariff uncertainties, attributing strong performance to Lenovo's competitive business model [50][52] Question: Margin outlook and drivers - The decline in margins was attributed to the growth of the ISG business, particularly in AI servers, which have lower gross margins [58] Question: R&D investment growth outlook - R&D remains a priority, with continued investment planned to support the hybrid AI strategy and drive innovation [62] Question: Sustaining market share gains - Management expressed confidence in sustaining market share gains through innovation and operational excellence [66] Question: AI server sales growth drivers - AI server sales growth is driven by demand across all segments and geographies, with significant growth noted in China [80] Question: Strategy for gaining share in AIPC market - Lenovo's strategy focuses on R&D, innovation, and leveraging its comprehensive product ecosystem to gain market share [84]

14 August 2025 | 9:01AM HKT Lenovo (0992.HK): Jun-Q better than expected; PC on both shipment and ASP increase, with AI servers ramping up; Buy Lenovo June-Q revenues increased by 22% YoY, or 10% / 7% higher than our / Bloomberg consensus with solid growth across the board: IDG (Intelligent Devices Group, mainly PC) revenues increased by 18% YoY, or 10% ahead of our estimates; ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group, mainly general servers and AI servers) revenues increased by 36% YoY, or 11% ahead of our estim ...

Lenovo reported better-than-expected profit after companies accelerated PC purchases to get ahead of potential new US tariffs https://t.co/fucmDJB9t1 ...

8月14日，联想集团公布截至2025年6月30日的2025/26财年第一季度业绩：当季营收同比增长22%至 1362亿元人民币，创下历史同期新高；非香港财务报告准则下净利润同比增长22%，达28.16亿元人民 币，盈利能力显著增强，赢得"开门红"，并成功兑现了此前"竞争力不降、市场份额不掉、盈利不减"的 承诺。 本财季，联想三大主营业务集团均实现双位数增长。IDG智能设备业务集团实现营收973亿元人民币， 同比增长17.8%；ISG基础设施方案业务集团营收实现35.8%的强劲增长；SSG方案服务业务集团收入增 长19.8%再创新高，运营利润率达22.2%，核心利润引擎地位进一步稳固。 这一增长飞轮的动力，源自联想长期在PC领域积累的卓越运营能力、全球供应链体系、销售与服务网 络、质量管理及品牌影响力。这些优势反哺至服务器、解决方案与智能手机等非PC业务，加速其成长 与突破。与此同时，非PC业务的成熟反向推动PC业务向AI化和高端化升级，进一步增强用户黏性与生 态价值。 在这一正向循环中，联想跳出了传统PC巨头的标签与周期，在AI时代实现了多元突破与可持续增长。 凭借全栈AI能力和混合式AI战略的进一步落地，联 ...