Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices have surged for two consecutive days, breaking a nearly month-long period of fluctuation, primarily driven by "anti-involution policies" and speculation related to coal production cuts [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol supply has recently decreased, with the operating rate of domestic methanol plants at 71.1%, down 7% from the previous peak [2] - Several methanol plants are scheduled for maintenance in July, including those in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, which will lead to a temporary reduction in supply [2] - Import expectations are also subdued due to geopolitical tensions affecting Iranian methanol production, although shipments may accelerate in late July [2] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite being in a demand off-season, traditional demand remains resilient, particularly in the olefins sector, with MTO operating rates at 81.1% [3] - The absolute demand levels are not low due to the commissioning of new downstream facilities, contributing to a noticeable increase in demand [3] - Traditional demand is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing production from newly commissioned facilities [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - There is a divergence between port and inland inventories, with port inventories at 83.55 million tons, indicating a seasonal accumulation [4] - Inland inventories are at historically low levels due to increased downstream demand, suggesting limited inventory pressure [4] - Recent increases in downstream enterprise inventories indicate a willingness to restock, reflecting current demand resilience [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The short-term methanol market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and speculation regarding the retirement of outdated chemical capacities, with prices expected to remain strong [5] - Supply is anticipated to gradually recover after late July, while demand is currently in a lull, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [5] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, demand may improve in September and October, with limited downside potential for methanol prices [5]