写在前面： 当全球化工行业刚刚走出低谷、并购活动呈现企稳迹象之际，地缘政治的不确定性再次陡然上升。美以对伊 朗发动联合军事行动，导致波斯湾地区局势显著升级，使能源市场瞬间进入高度敏感状态。若冲突持续并波 及关键海运通道，原油与基础化工原料价格或面临阶段性上行压力，能源密集型装置的成本曲线将再度抬 升，欧洲与亚洲部分高成本产能承压加剧。同时，国际航运延误与运费波动，也将影响跨境并购的资产估值 预期与交易节奏。在这样的背景下，2026年的化工并购，不仅是产业整合与投资组合重塑的博弈，更是企业 在高度不确定环境中进行风险对冲与结构优化的关键工具。 2025年，全球化工行业并购从周期性反弹转向结构性重构。并购交易的驱动因素，已不再是行业周期性 复苏或金融杠杆操作，而是投资组合承压、运营执行能力和各地区的差异化市场动态。 科尔尼《2026年全球化工行业并购报告》显示， 2025年全球化工行业并购活动企稳向好，核心指标显 示行业在经历数年低迷后迎来复苏。全球并购交易规模同比增长18%，突破七年历史均值，市场重拾增 长动力的态势初步显现 （见图1）。 综上，2025年并非全球化工行业新并购周期的起点，反而进一步强化了业已形 ...

Core Insights - Despite geopolitical turmoil and a slow industry recovery, investor trading activities are gradually gaining momentum, driven by a cautious and opportunistic strategy [1] Group 1: Global Chemical M&A Trends - The chemical industry has seen a rebound in M&A activity, with a 17% year-over-year increase in global chemical M&A transaction volume last year, indicating a shift towards an upward trend [3] - Strategic factors driving increased M&A activity include chemical capacity oversupply, weak demand in the chemical and downstream industries, the need for portfolio restructuring, and regional diversification [6] - In 2024, private equity faces pressure from historically high levels of dry powder, with a 5% decline expected for the first time in years, although levels remain high by historical standards [6] Group 2: Future Outlook for M&A - In 2025, corporate entities are expected to drive M&A activity, with over 60% of chemical executives believing that M&A activity will increase compared to 2024 [9][12] - The average holding period for private equity-backed companies has reached a historical high, with over 30% held for at least five years, indicating a need for asset disposals to meet limited partner return expectations [9] - Over 90% of North American respondents cite unfavorable or unclear transaction valuations as a major barrier to M&A in 2025, highlighting the disproportionate impact of uncertainty on private equity compared to corporate entities [12] Group 3: Sector Performance - Specialty chemicals are outperforming commodity chemicals, attracting strategic interest and achieving valuation premiums due to their high margins and resilient portfolios [13] - Commodity and intermediate chemical companies face margin compression and pricing pressures, often trading at a discount or through carve-out sales [13] Group 4: Transaction Structures and Financing - Innovative transaction structures, such as earnouts and phased closings, have become standard in the market, helping to bridge valuation gaps and hedge macro risks [14][15] - Despite stable interest rates, financing remains constrained, pushing companies towards smaller transactions or carve-outs rather than large deals [15] Group 5: Regional Insights - North America is experiencing a surge in M&A activity, driven by reshoring and supply chain security, with a projected 80% year-over-year increase in 2024 [21] - In Asia, M&A activity is expected to decline by approximately 27% in 2024, primarily due to economic weakness and reduced transaction willingness amid geopolitical tensions [22] - The Middle East is emerging as a significant buyer in global acquisitions, with sovereign wealth funds and state-owned enterprises playing a crucial role [25] Group 6: European Market Dynamics - In Europe, M&A activity is being driven by restructuring and ESG considerations, with a notable increase in corporate divestitures expected [26][27] - Companies in Europe face pressure to reshape their portfolios due to increased competition and the need for capital expenditure to modernize aging assets [27]

Core Insights - Global chemical industry M&A activity is significantly slowing down in 2024, with total completed transactions valued over $2.5 million dropping from $57.1 billion in 2023 to $45.3 billion in 2024, a decline of 21% [1] - The number of transactions decreased from 75 to 50, reflecting a broader challenge faced by the chemical industry [1] - Factors such as declining profitability, uncertain market outlook, and rising interest rates have severely weakened investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current market slowdown indicates that the chemical industry is facing wider challenges, with general chemical valuations remaining low and specialty chemical valuations continuing a downward trend since 2021 [1] - By the end of 2024, there are 29 announced but uncompleted transactions totaling $24 billion, a trend expected to continue into 2025 [1] Group 2: Regional Distribution - Asia's share of global chemical M&A activity decreased from 55.4% in 2023 to 48% in 2024, yet it remains the leader [2] - The United States saw a significant increase in share from 25.7% in 2023 to 40% in 2024, while Europe’s share fell from 18.9% to 12% due to weak investor interest [2] Group 3: Private Equity and Corporate Actions - Despite high financing costs, private equity firms remain active, completing 9 transactions in 2024, increasing their market share from 13.5% in 2023 to 18% in 2024 [2] - There is a noticeable increase in corporate spin-off cases in 2024, with major companies like DuPont and Honeywell advancing related plans [2] - The share of general chemical transactions continues to shrink, accounting for only 36% in 2024, significantly below the historical average of 50%, with no general chemical M&A transactions occurring in Europe throughout the year [2]