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油价重心持续回落,关注成长属性标的 | 投研报告
Core Insights - In April, oil prices continued to decline, with average Brent and WTI prices at $66.5 and $62.9 per barrel, representing decreases of 7.0% and 7.4% respectively [2] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting June, exceeding market expectations [2] - China's apparent demand for refined oil fell by 4.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, with production and exports also declining significantly [1][3] Supply Side - OPEC+ is set to increase production, with key producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia participating [2] - Iran's oil production and exports remained stable in April, with production at 335,000 barrels per day and exports at 166,000 barrels per day [2] - China's refined oil production was 101 million tons in the first quarter, down 7.0% year-on-year, while exports fell by 26.1% [1][3] Demand Side - China's apparent crude oil demand decreased by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, with consumption at 188 million tons [3] - Natural gas apparent demand in China also fell by 2.2%, with consumption at 1,048 billion cubic meters [3] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate increased to 89.0% as of May 2, indicating potential for higher fuel consumption as summer approaches [2] Price Outlook - The expected price range for Brent crude oil is between $58 and $68 per barrel in the near term, with reduced cost pressures on the industry [4] - Global trade tensions and uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies may impact oil consumption growth expectations [2][4] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on growth-oriented stocks in the chemical sector, recommending companies such as Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Guoen Co., Ltd. [4]