Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel, a decline of 1.54%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 91 cents to $68.76 per barrel, a decline of 1.31%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.28% at 510 yuan per barrel [1] - Eight OPEC + member countries reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking the organization's completion of the current - stage supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule and full withdrawal from the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December [1] - The Russian Federal Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the British intelligence agency plans to create an ecological disaster in international waters and blame Russia for threatening international navigation safety. The UK plans to instruct Ukrainian armed personnel to carry out "terrorist actions" at sea and pressure the Trump administration to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy [1] - US President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to the "provocative" remarks of Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev [1] - After the new round of US sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally bound for Indian refineries have changed their routes. Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariffs, India is avoiding purchasing some Russian crude oil. However, India imports 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for 45% of its total crude oil imports, and there are no other willing buyers under the threat of secondary tariffs, so India has limited room to maneuver, and the recent oil price reaction has been negative [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

原油日报 | 2025-06-25 地缘溢价挤出，油价继续回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4.14美元，收于每桶64.37美元，跌幅为6.04%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.34美元，收于每桶67.14美元，跌幅为6.07%。SC原油主力合约收跌9.27%，报502元/ 桶。 2、美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。伊以停火协议是通过在卡塔尔和美国 的调解达成的。伊朗报复卡塔尔的美国空军基地后，伊朗通过卡塔尔向白宫发出信息，表示不会再发动任何袭击。 白宫也发出信息，强调不会对伊朗的袭击进行报复，并表示美国已准备好与伊朗恢复谈判。之后，美国和以色列、 卡塔尔和伊朗继续进行谈判，就停火条款和开始时间达成一致。但停火协议生效后双方均称对方仍违反协议发动 攻击，特朗普表示，不希望伊朗发生政权更替，政权更迭引发混乱。希望紧张局势能够缓和。伊朗和以色列违反 停火协议不会面临后果。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，最近因以色列和伊朗之间的冲突而导致的大宗商品价格波动不会改变欧元区的通 胀前景。金多斯24日说："如果 ...

风险提示：国际贸易摩擦加剧的风险，原料价格大幅上涨的风险，下游需求不及预期的 风险，主营产品景气度下降的风险，项目达产不及预期的风险等。(中国银河 翟启迪) 1-3月国原油表观需求回落，同比下降1.6%。1-3月，我国加工原油1.82亿吨，同比增长 1.6%；原油产量0.54亿吨，同比增长1.1%；原油进口1.35亿吨，同比下降1.5%；原油表观消 费量1.88亿吨，同比下降1.6%；对外依存度72.1%，维持高位。 1-3月我国天然气表观需求回落，同比下降2.2%。1-3月，我国天然气表观消费量1048亿 方，同比下降2.2%；产量660亿方，同比增长4.4%；进口量406亿方，同比下降10.0%；对外 依存度38.8%，同比回落3.4个百分点。 1-3月我国成品油表观需求回落，同比下降4.9%。1-3月，我国成品油产量1.01亿吨，同 比下降7.0%；成品油出口751万吨，同比下降26.1%，主要系年后国内独立炼厂开工率低于 往年，主营资源多用于补充地炼开工走低造成的产量损失，出口利润持续偏低等原因；成品 油表观消费量0.93亿吨，同比下降4.9%。其中，汽油、煤油、柴油表观消费量同比下降 4.1%、1. ...