Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The EUA price showed a slight rebound, with the investment funds increasing long - positions. The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was not available. On August 12, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324.55 million tons, the auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the bid - cover ratio was 1.58, and the auction revenue was 231.40 million euros [4]. - **Secondary Market**: - **Futures**: On August 13, 2023, the EUA futures settlement price was 71.74 euros/ton, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 1.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.30 million lots. The futures open interest was 33.35 million lots, with no change [2][5]. - **Spot**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.13 euros/ton, up 0.35%, and the trading volume was 1579 lots less than the previous day, a decrease of 0.85%. The container shipping carbon cost was 659 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost accounted for 16.63% [5]. Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: - The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long - positions of investment funds increased by 8.11 million tons, mainly due to long - position increases [2]. - The 27 EU countries have not sent a clear signal of willingness to relax sanctions on Russia [2]. - The restart of 4 reactors totaling 5.4GW affected by the storm has been postponed, and EDF expects the restart to be completed by August 15 at the earliest [2]. - High temperatures will increase the cooling demand this week, driving up fossil - fuel power generation and EUA demand [2]. - **Negative Factors**: German Chancellor Merz said after a video call with European leaders and Trump that there is hope for progress in the Ukraine peace talks after the meeting with Trump [3].

Core Viewpoint - The expected significant decline in wind power generation during the summer in Europe will lead to an increase in coal and gas power generation, resulting in higher electricity prices and increased emissions [1][4]. Group 1: Electricity Generation Trends - Major markets including Germany, France, and Spain are projected to see a 50% increase in coal power generation this month compared to June [1]. - Energy Aspects estimates a 40% decline in wind power generation for July and August [1]. - Historical fossil fuel power plants in Europe may be reactivated, highlighting their continued importance despite investments in renewable energy [1]. Group 2: Electricity Prices - On July 1, the hourly electricity price at the Paris EPEX Spot SE surged to €557.34 per megawatt-hour, nearly nine times higher than the lowest price of the day [1]. - The electricity futures price in Germany for next month is €80.94 per megawatt-hour, approximately one-third higher than in April [1]. Group 3: Weather Impact - Recent temperatures in parts of Germany have approached 40 degrees Celsius, exacerbating the situation for wind power generation [2]. - If the cessation of wind power generation continues for an extended period, fossil fuels will need to fill the evening demand gap in the electricity market [2]. Group 4: Emissions and Historical Context - According to BloombergNEF, emissions from EU power plants may increase by 14% this month compared to June [4]. - Similar patterns of low power generation were observed last winter and spring, necessitating increased output from fossil fuel power plants to ensure electricity supply [4].