II Do D NATA NA ANA BAN S 80 40 20 07-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 10-01 01-01 04-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 2026-02-25 2026-02-26 持仓量 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 增减 -2.22% 70.97 34. 70 0. 00 72.58 2 03 4. 55 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 现货成交量(手) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 运费占比 2026-02-25 2026-02-26 增减 成交量 涨跌幅 71. 20 69. 60 -2. 25% 24. 73 1. 82% 5930 2496 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 -2027 == 基差（右轴） -- 现货价格 -期货价格 万手——2023 ——2024 ——2025 ——2026 欧元/吨 | 100 50 OM . A Vala 20 -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 0 ...

欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第31期) 发布日期:2026-02-24 欧美股币普跌,EUA回吐前日涨幅 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格70.4欧元/吨(-0.66%)，投标覆盖比1.04; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价71.38欧元/吨(-3.25%),成交3.25万手(0.10)。 信号强度:0(0为空仓,立1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 核心 利多:暂无新增。 逻辑 利空:全球贸易不确定性增加,欧美股市普跌。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 | | EUA拍卖价格 | CBAM证书价格 | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (欧元/吨) | (欧元/吨) | (万吨) | | (万欧元) | | 2026-02-23 | 70. 40 | 75. 65 | 271. 25 | 1.04 | 19096 | | 2026-02-20 | 70. 87 | 75. 65 | 109. 30 | 2. 60 | 7746 | | 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-季节性图 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - EU plans to increase free quota supply, causing EUA to plummet [1] - The signal strength is 0 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means long/short) [1] - Bullish factor: Latest data shows EU natural gas inventory is only about 39 - 43%, with Germany, France, and the Netherlands having particularly low inventory, lower than last year's and long - term average [1] - Bearish factors: (1) European and American stock markets closed down collectively, spreading market pessimism; (2) EU plans to relax emission restrictions on EU ETS enterprises and consider increasing free quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Primary market: The auction price is 80.55 euros/ton (-0.31%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.45 [1] - Secondary market: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.2 euros/ton (-5.69%), and the trading volume is 71,700 lots (2.40) [1] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.55 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 2.7125 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 1.45, and auction revenue was 218.49 million euros [3] - On February 4, 2026, the EUA auction price was 80.80 euros/ton, CBAM certificate price was 84.02 euros/ton, auction volume was 1.5245 million tons, bid coverage ratio was 2.03, and auction revenue was 123.18 million euros [3] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA futures settlement price was 78.20 euros/ton (-5.69%), trading volume increased by 2.40 ten - thousand lots to 7.17 ten - thousand lots, and the position remained unchanged at 35.55 ten - thousand lots [4] - On February 5, 2026, the EUA spot settlement price was 76.59 euros/ton (-5.67%), trading volume increased by 27.18% to 11,465 lots [4]

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 若给您造成不便，数请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而观其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资外，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明。本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或某他相关知识产 权。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译比报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 ☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 車要声明 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第18期) 发布日期:2026-01-28 寒 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The EU carbon market is facing a high-level decline in EUA due to lingering tariff concerns. The first-level auction price and second-level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, and the market is affected by potential events such as the European Parliament's review of the EU - US trade agreement and the plan to increase North Sea turbine deployment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First-level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2]. - Second-level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2]. - The EUA spot settlement price was 85.23 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.42%, and the trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3]. Strategy - There are no new bullish or bearish factors [2]. Core Logic - The European Parliament will re - examine the EU - US trade agreement next week [2]. - Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 17, 2026) [1] - Release Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The EU carbon market is facing tariff concerns, and the EU Allowance (EUA) price has fallen from its high. The first - level auction price and the second - level EUA futures settlement price both decreased, with decreases of 1.27% and 1.44% respectively [2] Content Summary by Directory Market Conditions - First - level: The auction price was 86.4 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.27%, and the bid coverage ratio was 1.48 [2] - Second - level: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.13 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.44%, and the trading volume was 37,000 lots, an increase of 0.93 [2] - EUA spot settlement price decreased by 1.42% to 85.23 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1,799 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots [3] Strategy and Core Logic - Bullish factors: No new bullish factors [2] - Bearish factors: No new bearish factors [2] - Other factors: The European Parliament will re - review the EU - US trade agreement next week; Europe has agreed to significantly increase the deployment of North Sea turbines, aiming to reach 100 gigawatts by 2050 [2]

☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第17期) 发布日期:2026-01-29 关税潜忧仍在,EUA高位回落 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格86.4欧元/吨(-1.27%)，投标覆盖比1.48; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价87.13欧元/吨(-1.44%),成交3.70万手(0.93)。 信号强度:1(0为空仓,立1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:暂无新增。 逻辑 其他:(1欧洲议会下周将重新审议欧盟-美国贸易协议:(2欧洲同意大幅提升北海涡轮 机部署,目标为到2050年达到100吉瓦。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 EUA拍卖量 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-26 23436 271. 25 86. 40 89. 54 1.48 2026-01 ...

利多：欧洲北部及中部寒冷天气持续推高取暖需求，LNG区域竞争加剧,TTF偏 核心 强运行。 逻辑 利空:暂无新增。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 国泰君安期货 欧盟碳币场行情简报 (2026年第16期) CIUCTAI JUNAN FUT 发布日期:2026-01-26 关税风暴暂缓,EUA回归基本面 最新 行情 1、一级：拍卖价格87.51欧元/吨(1.11%)， 投标覆盖比2.42: 2、二级：EUA期货结算价88.4欧元/吨(-0.08%)，成交2.77万手(-2.39)。 策略 信号强度:1 (0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 40 20 07-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 01-0′ 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 2026-01-22 2026-01-23 持仓量 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 壇减 88. 47 -0. 08% 34. 76 -2. 39 0. 00 2.77 88. 40 集运碳成本 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EU Carbon Market Briefing (Issue 16, 2026) [1] - **Release Date**: January 26, 2026 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The EU carbon market has returned to fundamentals after the tariff storm subsided [1] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 87.51 euros/ton, a 1.11% increase, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.42 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 88.4 euros/ton, a 0.08% decrease, and the trading volume was 27,700 lots, a 2.39% decrease [2] Strategy - **Signal Strength**: 1 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means long/short) [3] - **Bullish Factors**: Cold weather in northern and central Europe has continuously increased heating demand, intensifying LNG regional competition, and the TTF is running strongly [3] - **Bearish Factors**: No new bearish factors [3] Charts - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction price, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction volume, bid - to - cover ratio, and auction revenue on January 23 and 22, 2026 [5] - **Chart 2**: EUA auction price seasonal trend chart [5] - **Chart 3**: EUA auction bid - to - cover ratio seasonal trend chart [5] - **Chart 4**: EUA futures and spot market information including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, and spot settlement price, trading volume on January 22 and 23, 2026 [6] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [6] - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest [6]

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 若给您造成不便，数请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而观其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资外，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明。本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或某他相关知识产 权。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译比报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 CBAM证书价格 EUA拍卖量 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-0 ...