40 20 07-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4: 欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 期货持仓量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2026-01-02 2026-01-05 增减 涨跌幅 增减 87. 25 88. 31 -1. 20% 35. 66 2. 78 0. 00 1. 20 现货成交量(手) 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 成交量 运费占比 2026-01-02 2026-01-05 增减 涨跌幅 86. 22 29. 88 -1.22% 85. 17 1884 1106 1.77% 图表5: EUA期现价格及基差 图表6:12月合约持仓-李节性图 -2027 -2023 -- 2024 -2025 -- 2026 ==基差(右轴) == 现货价格 欧元/吨 -期货价格 万手 100 John Arthur 40 20 10 - -50 04-01 07-01 10-01 01-01 01-1 2022-01 2023-01 202 ...

EUA拍卖量 EUA拍卖价格 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-02 0.00 84. 60 #N/A #N/A O 2025-12-31 0.00 84. 60 #N/A #N/A o 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-季节性图 图表3: EUA拍卖投标覆盖比-李节性图 =2022 -- 2024 -- 2025 -- 2026 xt.la -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2026 -- 2026 100 欧元/吨 80 and and with and with and 40 20 07-01 01-0′ 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 2025-12-31 2026-01-02 持仓量 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 壇减 35. 60 1.08% #VALUE ! 87. 37 88. 31 0. 00 1. 58 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy softening impact is fermenting, and EUA continues to decline [1] - The recommended strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 80.07 euros/ton (-1.46%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.53 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 80.17 euros/ton (-1.62%), with a trading volume of 33,900 lots (0.72) [1] Strategy - The strategy is to go short on rallies with a light position [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: There are no new positive factors [1] - **Negative Factors**: TF prices have declined due to mild weather and stable supply; some EU legislators plan to push for a delay of ETS2 by at least three years [1] - **Other Factors**: The US is asking the EU to get rid of Russian gas faster and expand the "Vertical Corridor" connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine [1] Market Data Charts - **Auction Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 80.07 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 78.20 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.268 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.53, and the auction revenue was 261.67 million euros [3] - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: On November 6, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 80.17 euros/ton, the futures trading volume was 33,900 lots, and the futures position was 372,500 lots; the spot settlement price was 79.96 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume was 1903 lots [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment fund long positions are continuously increasing, but the climate target has significantly softened, leading to a high - level decline of EUA [1] - The trading strategy is to short at high prices with a light position [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is not available, and the bid - cover ratio is also not available [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 81.49 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.00%, and the trading volume is 26,700 lots, a decrease of 0.80 [1] Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting at high prices with a light position [1] Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long positions of investment funds increased to 2.636 million tons; the liquefied natural gas tanker freight rate has soared significantly due to the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere, tight ship supply, and logistics delays [1] - **Negative Factors**: The EU Council has determined the medium - term climate target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to the 1990 level by 2040 (including 5% high - quality international carbon credits) and proposed to postpone the launch of EU ETS2 [1][2] Risk - The EU economy may experience a recession; the EU may increase auctions to raise funds; the emission cap may be weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and EUA maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The recommended strategy is to lightly short at high prices. There are no new positive or negative factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 78.71 euros/ton (up 0.20%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.6 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 78.67 euros/ton (down 0.18%), with a trading volume of 22,200 lots (up 0.05) [1] Other Information - Multiple European truck manufacturers have written to the European Commission, requesting the relaxation of CO₂ emission targets for heavy - duty vehicles, stating that the current targets are "difficult to achieve" [1][2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 181, 2025)" and was released on October 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Primary Market - The EUA auction price was 78.75 euros/ton with a 0.97% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.6. On October 20, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 78.75 euros/ton, EUA auction price was 78.51 euros/ton, the auction volume was 326,800 tons, and the auction revenue was 25,736,000 euros [2][5] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 79.82 euros/ton with a 0.45% change, and the trading volume was 25,300 lots with a - 0.69 change. The spot settlement price on October 20, 2025 was 79.15 euros/ton with a 0.47% change, and the spot trading volume was 361 lots with a 1.67% change [2][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The strategy is to lightly hold positions and sell high [2] Group 4: Core Logic - There are no new positive or negative factors. The European Council and the Energy/Environment Ministerial Meeting are being held this week, with the political focus on phasing out Russian fossil fuels and passing a climate strategy before COP30 [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The EUA is struggling to rise and has not yet broken through the 80 - euro mark. The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton with a 0.22% change, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.98 [1]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, a - 0.06% change, and the trading volume was 32,200 lots with a 0.52 change [1]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to lightly short on rallies [1]. Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The IMO net - zero framework vote has been postponed by one year, weakening the impact on the EU's shipping decarbonization framework [1]. - **Negative**: There are no new negative factors [1]. - **Other**: Qatar's energy minister stated that if the EU does not relax the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, Qatar will be unable to continue supplying LNG to Europe, and Qatar accounts for 12 - 14% of Europe's LNG supply. Russia demands that Ukraine hand over full control of Donetsk as a condition to end the war [1]. Data Tables - **Auction Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 77.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 1.691 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.98, and the auction revenue was 131.88 million euros [2]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: On October 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 79.46 euros/ton, the trading volume was 32,200 lots, and the open interest was 360,200 lots. The spot settlement price was 79.15 euros/ton, and the trading volume was 896 lots [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the compliance period approaches, EUA continues to decouple from European energy and the stock market, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [1] - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with a price range of €63 - 76 [1] - There are no new positive or negative factors [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs EUA Auction Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 161.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.82, and the auction revenue was 115.11 million euros [3] - On August 28, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.18 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 70.99 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.45 million tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.39, and the auction revenue was 230.94 million euros [3] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information - On August 29, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.99 euros/ton (up 1.77%), the trading volume was 23,400 lots (down 0.12 lots), and the open interest was unchanged [1][4] - On August 29, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 72.46 euros/ton (up 1.78%), the trading volume was 2,644 lots, the container shipping carbon cost was 16.86 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 1.14% [4]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 149, 2025) [1] Report Date - August 21, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - TTF price surge drives EUA futures prices to turn positive; strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76 [2] Market Summary Primary Market - EUA auction price is 70.47 euros/ton (-1.26%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.66 [2] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price is 71.29 euros/ton (0.18%), with a trading volume of 17,700 lots (-0.40) [2] Strategy - Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy within the price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - No new bullish factors [2] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by 8.65 million tons last week due to significant long - position liquidation; under the newly passed regulations, European gas storage facilities must reach 90% of their capacity between October and December, and the current capacity utilization is 73.91%, indicating a loose EU natural gas supply [2] Other Information - Russia stated on Wednesday that it must participate in any discussions regarding Ukraine's security guarantees, weakening hopes for a quick peace agreement [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On August 20, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.47 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.069 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.66, and the auction revenue was 145.8 million euros [4] - On August 19, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.37 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.17 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 billion tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.59, and the auction revenue was 231.63 million euros [4] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price was 71.29 euros/ton (0.18% increase), the trading volume was 17,700 lots (-0.40), and the open interest was 335,200 lots (no change); the spot settlement price was 70.73 euros/ton (0.20% increase), and the trading volume was 1,233 lots (-5,020) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The EUA price showed a slight rebound, with the investment funds increasing long - positions. The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 0.00 million tons, the auction price was not available, and the bid - cover ratio was not available. On August 12, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324.55 million tons, the auction price was 71.30 euros/ton, the bid - cover ratio was 1.58, and the auction revenue was 231.40 million euros [4]. - **Secondary Market**: - **Futures**: On August 13, 2023, the EUA futures settlement price was 71.74 euros/ton, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 1.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.30 million lots. The futures open interest was 33.35 million lots, with no change [2][5]. - **Spot**: On August 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.13 euros/ton, up 0.35%, and the trading volume was 1579 lots less than the previous day, a decrease of 0.85%. The container shipping carbon cost was 659 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost accounted for 16.63% [5]. Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low within the range of €63 - 76 [2]. Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: - The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long - positions of investment funds increased by 8.11 million tons, mainly due to long - position increases [2]. - The 27 EU countries have not sent a clear signal of willingness to relax sanctions on Russia [2]. - The restart of 4 reactors totaling 5.4GW affected by the storm has been postponed, and EDF expects the restart to be completed by August 15 at the earliest [2]. - High temperatures will increase the cooling demand this week, driving up fossil - fuel power generation and EUA demand [2]. - **Negative Factors**: German Chancellor Merz said after a video call with European leaders and Trump that there is hope for progress in the Ukraine peace talks after the meeting with Trump [3].