Core Viewpoint - The continuation of a 407.52% anti-dumping duty on Chinese non-oriented electrical steel (NOES) by the U.S. has significant implications for the industry, pushing it towards a regionalized, multi-node supply chain model due to the prohibitive costs of direct exports [1][3][12]. Group 1: Impact of Anti-Dumping Duty - The U.S. Department of Commerce has maintained a 407.52% anti-dumping duty on Chinese NOES, which has been consistent since 2014, making direct exports economically unfeasible [3][5]. - For every $1 of NOES exported, over $4 in anti-dumping duties may be incurred, effectively eliminating the possibility of direct exports to the U.S. market [3][5]. Group 2: Changes in U.S. Import Structure - Following the imposition of high tariffs, Chinese exports to the U.S. plummeted from approximately 78,000 tons in 2013 to less than 2,000 tons by 2020, with projections for 2024 indicating near-zero imports from China [5][6]. - The U.S. has shifted its import sources to countries such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, India, and Mexico, as Chinese products have been largely excluded [5][6]. Group 3: Regional Supply Chain Transition - The industry is witnessing a rapid growth in regional processing nodes, with exports of semi-finished electrical steel from China to Southeast Asia increasing significantly: Malaysia (+138%), Vietnam (+102%), and Thailand (+87%) from 2021 to 2024 [8][9]. - The number of applications for certificates of origin in ASEAN countries has surged by approximately 63% over three years, with over 40% related to the electrical machinery and power transmission equipment supply chain [9][12]. Group 4: Reasons for Supply Chain Shift - The high tariff rates have forced companies to optimize their structures, as direct exports are no longer viable, leading to a focus on regional processing to mitigate risks and control costs [11][12]. - Stricter trade rules in the U.S., Canada, and the EU regarding origin verification and anti-circumvention investigations have compelled companies to adjust their supply chains proactively [12]. - Anticipated growth in global demand for electrical steel in sectors such as electric vehicles (+180%), home appliances (+45%), and industrial motors (+60%) by 2030 necessitates a regionalized supply chain approach [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Projections indicate that by 2028, around 30% of global electrical steel supply will adopt a multi-node processing model, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key regional processing hub [13]. - The annual growth rate for third-country certificate applications is expected to be between 8% and 12%, reflecting a shift from exporting products to exporting supply chain capabilities [13].