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评级调整专题:2025,评级报告的关注点
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-15 05:13
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report focuses on the new changes in credit rating adjustments in 2025 and the key points in rating reports, analyzing the rating adjustment characteristics and reasons of urban investment, industrial, and financial bonds [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 2025, Rating Report Focus Points 1.1. Urban Investment (Chengtou) Subject Rating Report - Regional negative public opinions, such as local fiscal revenue decline, heavy government debt burden, and frequent capital chain tensions of Chengtou companies, have become important factors affecting credit ratings [12]. - The appearance of "public - welfare" in the report implies poor profitability of the current business segment, which requires government financial subsidies [13]. 1.2. Industrial Bond Subject Rating Report - For real - estate, the quality of land reserves is more important than quantity, and projects in first - tier cities have stronger profit potential [15]. - For construction, ratings focus more on order quality and structure, including order structure, regional distribution, and owner credit [16]. 1.3. Financial Bond Subject Rating Report - Non - interest income, such as fees and commissions, provides an additional income source for financial institutions in a narrowing net interest margin environment, but is also affected by regulatory policies [17][18]. - Regulatory authorities promote the reduction of non - standard investments to improve asset quality, and rating reports pay attention to its impact on financial institutions [19]. 2. Characteristics of Rating Adjustments Since the First Half of 2025 2.1. Changes in Urban Investment (Chengtou) Subject Rating Adjustments - **Upward Adjustments**: In the first half of 2025, the number of Chengtou subjects with upward - adjusted ratings increased to 33 from 28 in the same period of 2024, and reached 41 as of August 12, 2025. Upward - adjusted platforms are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels, concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shanghai. The main reasons for upward adjustments include regional economic advantages, increased government support, prominent strategic positioning, good self - operation and financial conditions, and strong industry prospects and competitiveness [51][53][63]. - **Downward Adjustments**: In the first half of 2025, the number of Chengtou subjects with downward - adjusted ratings decreased to 3 from 7 in the same period of 2024, and reached 4 as of August 12, 2025. Downward - adjusted subjects are mainly from Guizhou and Yunnan, at the district - county, prefecture - level, and national - level park levels. The main reasons for downward adjustments include changes in business and functions, deterioration of financial conditions, and increased contingent risks [68][73][78]. - **Implied Rating Adjustments**: As of August 12, 2025, 23 platforms had upward - adjusted ChinaBond implied ratings, and 14 had downward - adjusted ratings. Platforms with upward - adjusted ratings from AA - to AA(2) are concentrated in Jiangsu and Jiangxi, mainly at the district - county level; those with downward - adjusted ratings from AA(2) to AA - are concentrated in Guangxi, all at the prefecture - level [81][86][89]. 2.2. Changes in Industrial Bond Issuer Rating Adjustments - As of August 12, 2025, 16 non - financial industrial bond issuers had upward - adjusted ratings, and 43 had downward - adjusted ratings (4 after excluding convertible - bond - only issuers). Upward - adjusted industries are mainly power, infrastructure construction, and trade, and the main reasons include strong government support, significant industry status and competitive advantages, large project investment and development potential, and improved financial conditions and profitability. Downward - adjusted reasons mainly include high debt - repayment pressure and declining profitability [4][90][100]. 2.3. Changes in Financial Bond Issuer Rating Adjustments - As of August 12, 2025, 18 financial bond issuers had upward - adjusted ratings, and 6 had downward - adjusted ratings. The number of upward - adjusted financial bond issuers increased in the first half of 2025. Upward - adjusted reasons mainly include strong shareholder background, improved business development and profitability, enhanced asset quality and risk management ability, smooth financing channels, and significant regional advantages. Downward - adjusted reasons mainly include poor asset quality, declining profitability, insufficient capital, high shareholder credit risk, and large liquidity pressure [5][105][108].