智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑医保结算调整的影响，下调华润医疗(01515)2025/2026年净 利润预测16.8%/15.6%至4.71亿元/4.99亿元，分别同比-16.8%/+6.0%。该行维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到 公司加强医保精细化管理并推进重点医院学科建设，该行维持目标价5.0港币，对应2025/2026年12.6 倍/11.7倍市盈率。当前股价对应2025/2026年9.2倍/8.6倍市盈率，离目标价有37.0%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25净利润低于该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入45.25亿元人民币，同比-9.1%;归母净利润3.40亿元人民币，同比-21.8%，对应 每股收益0.27元，净利润低于该行预期，主要系受到医保结算调整的影响。 医院业务占比提升，IOT业务缩减 医院业务方面，2025年上半年门急诊人次稳步提升 根据公司公告，1H25，公司医院业务收入人民币42.59亿元，同比-7.4%;其中，门急诊业务收入人民币 18.13亿元，同比-4.4%;住院业务收入人民币24.46亿元，同比-9.6%;公司自有医院诊疗门急诊量和住院量 分别为510万人次和27万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's net profit for 1H25 fell short of expectations, primarily due to adjustments in medical insurance settlements, with a reported revenue of 4.525 billion RMB, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million RMB, down 21.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the hospital business in 1H25 was 4.259 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with outpatient revenue at 1.813 billion RMB (down 4.4%) and inpatient revenue at 2.446 billion RMB (down 9.6%) [2]. - The company managed 103 medical institutions across 10 provinces and cities in China, with a total of 18,286 operational hospital beds and a bed occupancy rate of 80.57%, an increase from 79.93% in 1H24 [1]. - The gross profit for the hospital business was 670 million RMB, down 27.4%, with a gross profit margin of 15.7% [2]. Business Segments - The hospital business accounted for 94.1% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The IOT business saw a reduction in scale, with other business revenue at 266 million RMB, down 29.3% year-on-year [1]. Cost Management - Administrative and other operating expense ratio increased to 10.4%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while financial expense ratio decreased to 0.6%, down 0.2 percentage points, due to adjustments in debt structure [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 16.8% and 15.6% to 471 million RMB and 499 million RMB, respectively [3]. - The target price is maintained at 5.0 HKD, corresponding to 12.6 times and 11.7 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 and 2026, with a current stock price reflecting 9.2 times and 8.6 times the price-to-earnings ratio, indicating a potential upside of 37.0% to the target price [3].