Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second longest in history, with potential implications for economic data and Federal Reserve decision-making [1][2] Economic Data Impact - The shutdown is causing a "data black hole," leading to the suspension of key economic data releases, which poses a direct challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, which will temporarily inflate the unemployment rate by 44 basis points, despite eventual back pay [2][3] Economic Loss Assessment - Despite the chaos in data, Morgan Stanley believes the actual economic loss is manageable, estimating a GDP drag of about 0.25%, with most impacts expected to be repaired in the following quarter [3] - Federal employees will miss their first full paycheck this Friday, exacerbating economic damage, and the White House warns of potential disruptions in military pay and federal food assistance [3] Political Stalemate - The shutdown stems from a deadlock between Democrats and Republicans over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats demanding relief for 22 million Americans facing rising insurance premiums [4] - Former President Trump has stated that negotiations will not occur until the shutdown ends, complicating the path to a resolution [4] Cost Disagreement - The core disagreement revolves around the cost of extending healthcare subsidies, which were initially introduced as emergency measures during the pandemic and are projected to increase federal debt by $350 billion over the next decade [5] - Moderate senators have not made progress in private negotiations, with key figures expressing skepticism about finding a way out of the deadlock [5]