你有没有发现，美国这几年停摆的戏码，越来越像在拿经济做人质？ 我看到今天白宫那段采访，真是有点愣。凯文·哈西特在CNN镜头前说，每停摆一周，美国GDP蒸发150亿美元，相当于每个美国人一周少45美元。我查了 下，白宫自己的模型是按年度GDP规模折算的。美国去年GDP大约27万亿美元，按0.2个百分点的拖累算，确实能得出这个数字。问题是，这已经比2018年 那次停摆的速度快一倍。 我还翻了下国会预算办公室（CBO）的复盘。当年2018到2019年那次，持续35天，总损失是110亿美元，其中30亿美元是"永久性损失也就是补不回来的部 分。现在白宫说七天掉150亿，一个月就130亿是永远回不来的，这逻辑摆在谁面前都得倒吸口气。 停摆的后果不是理论，是实打实的。美国联邦雇员有大约75万人，每次停摆他们就被迫停薪。2019年的时候，运输安全局（TSA）员工罢工，机场安检排队 一度超过两小时，航班延误率飙到25%。这次据路透社报道，证券交易委员会（SEC）九成员工被遣回家，食品药品监管局（FDA）和商品期货交易委员会 （CFTC）都只剩骨架班。你能想象整个金融监管系统只剩几百人在线的状态吗？ 更麻烦的是数据断供。劳工部的 ...

政治僵局难解，关门风险高企 美国政府关门危机再次浮现，可能将市场拖入一个关键经济数据的"真空期"。 最新的动态显示，由于两党在支出问题上日益僵持，美国政府关门的风险升高。据追风交易台，野村证 券在一份发布于9月22日的研究报告中指出，参议院上周五未能通过一项旨在维持政府运作的持续决议 案。共和党人倾向于一份改动较少的"干净"法案，而民主党人则希望借此机会扭转医疗补贴削减等政 策，双方的强硬立场使得达成妥协的前景黯淡。 此次潜在的停摆将直接冲击经济数据的发布。报告预计，一旦政府关门，包括劳工统计局（BLS）在内 的大部分联邦统计机构将暂停运作。这意味着，原定于10月发布的月度就业报告、CPI、PPI以及零售 销售等一系列至关重要的数据，都将无法按时公布。 对于市场和美联储而言，这无异于一次信息中断。缺乏最新的通胀和就业数据，美联储评估经济状况的 难度将显著增加。这将大大降低其在10月29日的会议上偏离9月经济预测摘要（SEP）中既定路线的可 能性。 美国联邦政府的当前财年资金将于9月30日正式耗尽，若无国会行动，一场政府关门将在10月1日开启。 导致这一僵局的核心是两党间不可调和的政治分歧。 野村证券的报告分析 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant divergence in interest rate expectations, with a likelihood of one rate cut this year, and potentially two more cuts based on weak employment and stable inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve indicates a notable split in expectations, excluding the new member, suggesting a potential rate cut within the year [1] - Weak employment data and lack of significant inflation rebound provide a foundation for further rate cuts, with a higher probability of two cuts remaining this year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Following a short-term bullish sentiment, copper prices have experienced a pullback, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - The expectation of liquidity easing is likely to support copper prices, presenting a buying opportunity during the pullback [1] - Improved downstream demand is providing support for copper prices, with medium to long-term resilience and rate cut pace driving upward movement [1] - In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. After the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate, and central banks were cautious about further rate cuts. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2144 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons, and BC copper decreased by 2229 tons. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices may be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline could prompt downstream restocking [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2932 yuan/ton, a 0.54% decline. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20800 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking, adding to the peak - season expectations. With the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to be strong [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.71% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.63%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 18 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless - steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was tight. Due to previous supply disruptions in Indonesia and price increases in nickel - iron and MHP, nickel prices may face correction pressure, and overseas macro conditions need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors led to increased market volatility, and downstream demand was weak. Considering policy and demand, copper prices may remain strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were near the cost line, and aluminum ingot de - stocking supported the market. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: After a rapid price increase, nickel prices may correct, and attention should be paid to overseas macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 620 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory decreased by 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons. The active - contract import loss was 89.9 yuan/ton, a significant change from the previous day [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2675 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9843 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased by 110 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 30125 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 4421 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1541 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 18 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1381 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price decreased by 0.9%. LME inventory decreased by 150 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price decreased by 1.0%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 124 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and an intermediate gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience and has won multiple industry awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting interest rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Volatility may increase after the Fed's decision [2]. - The technology sector has regained strength in the stock index futures market, with funds rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a long straddle options strategy can be considered [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has initially stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased, and the bond futures market has first declined and then risen. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on the capital, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - Pre - Fed decision, the loose expectation has caused the US dollar index to fall to its lowest point this year. Gold and silver prices have fluctuated. After the decision, silver volatility may rise and then fall [2]. - The main container shipping index (European line) has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are expected to be strong, supported by factors such as increased shipments, rising pig iron production, and replenishment demand [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal maintenance, and macro - environment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2]. - In the special and new energy product sectors, the prices of products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment and cost, and different trading stances are recommended [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology sector has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility declines, a long straddle options strategy can be tried [2]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on short - term market changes [2]. Precious Metals - Pre - Fed decision, the US dollar index has fallen, and gold and silver prices have fluctuated. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. Different options strategies are recommended for gold and silver [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main index has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. Black Metals - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced. Coking coal, iron ore, and coke prices are expected to be strong. Specific ranges for long - buying and spread - trading strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical - Different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, PX and PTA are expected to have different short - term supply - demand conditions. Various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and spread - trading are recommended for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by supply, demand, and seasonal factors. Different trading suggestions are provided for each product, such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and position - adjustment [2]. Special and New Energy Products - Products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and cost. Different stances such as waiting and seeing and range - trading are recommended [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Different trading strategies are recommended for various futures contracts based on their market conditions, including index futures, bond futures, precious metals, shipping, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Futures - Index futures show volatile differentiation, with the new energy sector being structurally strong. For IF2509, the market may price in the Fed's rate - cut probability ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility declines, an options double - buy strategy can be considered. For T2512, TF2512, TS2512, and TL2512, domestic demand needs to be boosted, but rising risk appetite suppresses long - term bonds. A single - side strategy suggests investors wait and watch, focusing on the capital market, equity market, and policy trends [2]. Precious Metals - Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices above the 20 - day average, or sell out - of - the - money put options to capture volatility decline gains. Silver may continue to rise above $42 but with potential volatility decline, so sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) is weakly volatile, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. Black Commodities - Steel prices rise due to anti - involution expectations, and short - term long positions are recommended for RB2601. For I2601, buy at low prices in the range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron ore short - hot - rolled coil strategy. For JM2601, buy at low prices in the range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For J2601, buy at low prices in the range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2510), trade the easing expectation before the rate cut, with the main contract in the range of 79500 - 82000. For alumina (AO2601), the price is weakly volatile, with the main contract in the range of 2900 - 3200. For aluminum (AL2510), it is expected to continue high - level volatility, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21400. For zinc (ZN2510), the price is boosted by rate - cut expectations, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800. For tin (SN2510), the price is high - level volatile, with the operating range of 285000 - 265000. For nickel (NI2510), the main contract is in the range of 120000 - 125000. For stainless steel (SS2511), the main contract is in the range of 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy - For crude oil (SC2511), geopolitical risks increase short - term concerns, but easing pressure limits the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and watch on the single - side, with resistance levels for WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for volatility to increase for options trading [2]. Chemicals - For urea (UR2601), supply is expected to increase, and the demand gap is extended, so the short - term rebound is limited. For PX (PX2511), the supply - demand in September is expected to be loose, and it fluctuates with oil prices, with the short - term range of 6600 - 6900. For PTA (TA2601), the supply - demand in September is expected to be tight but weak in the medium - term, with the short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse - spread strategy. For short - fiber (PF2511), it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - chip (PR2511), the demand may decline in September, and the processing fee range is 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and an EG1 - 5 reverse - spread strategy is recommended. For caustic soda (SH2601), wait and watch. For PVC (V2601), close out previous short positions. For benzene (BZ2603), it follows benzene - ethylene and oil prices. For benzene - ethylene (EB2510), it has strong short - term support, and a rolling low - buy strategy is recommended, and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread. For synthetic rubber (BR2511), the price range is expected to be 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE (L2601), it fluctuates in the range of 7150 - 7450. For PP2601, it is slightly bullish. For methanol (MA2601), trade in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soymeal (M2601, RM601), domestic soymeal is under pressure due to Sino - US economic and trade talks. For live hogs (LH2511), it is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn (C2511), be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil (P2601, Y2601, O1601), strong exports support its price, and the short - term main contract may reach 9500. For white sugar (SR2601), go long in the short - term, paying attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5750. For cotton (CF2601), wait and watch on the single - side. For eggs (JD2511), reduce previous short positions. For apples (AP2601), the main contract runs around 8300. For orange juice (CJ2601), pay attention to the support at 10700 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash (SA2601), wait and watch as the price is driven by macro - sentiment with no obvious fundamental changes. For glass (FG2601), wait and watch and focus on the spot market sentiment in the peak season. For rubber (RU2601), wait and watch as the price is high - level volatile due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon (Si2511), the price range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon (PS2511), wait and watch for the results of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting. For lithium carbonate (LC2511), the main contract runs in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve's control is highlighted by President Trump's failed attempt to remove a Fed governor and his successful appointment of a White House advisor to the Fed board, breaking a 90-year political norm [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Board Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled against President Trump, allowing Lisa Cook to remain on the Federal Reserve Board, which she was appointed to by President Biden [3][5]. - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook was based on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denied, and the court found that the accusations did not apply to the legal grounds for removal [5][6]. - The appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board marks the first time in 90 years that a sitting White House official will participate in monetary policy decisions [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with widespread expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts to support a weak labor market [1][7]. - The composition of the Federal Reserve Board is crucial as it may influence the direction of the upcoming interest rate decisions [1].

Group 1 - The price of gold has increased by over 40% this year, marking a rare historical event, with some benefiting from the bull market while others have faced losses [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is expected to lead to increased liquidity in the market as the economic situation worsens, particularly in the U.S. job market [2] - High inflation is pushing investors to seek safe havens for cash, with gold being identified as the optimal solution [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong support around $3610, indicating potential for further upward movement despite short-term adjustment risks [4] - The current strategy suggests buying gold when prices approach the $3665-$3662 range, with upward targets set at $3685-$3690 [5] - The market is expected to experience intensified volatility as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions unfold, creating opportunities for traders [2][4]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a downturn, with nearly 130,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [2] - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours reached $297 million, with significant liquidations occurring on platforms like Binance [3] - The Winklevoss twins, founders of the cryptocurrency company "Gemini," predict that Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million within the next decade [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Developments - Recent developments regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting [4] - The U.S. Department of Justice has requested a ruling by September 15 to determine Cook's ability to attend and vote at the Federal Reserve meeting [4] - Media reports suggest that Cook's property, labeled as a "vacation home," may counter allegations of mortgage fraud that led to her dismissal [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The market anticipates a minimum 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [5] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that 2025 will be a significant turning point for global market investment themes, advocating for a long position in non-U.S. assets [5] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist forecasts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, predicting only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than 2024's expected 2.8% [5]