来源：滚动播报 据polymarket网站最新预测显示，美联储1月议息结果概率：维持不变的概率97.4%，降息25个基点的概 率2.1%，降息50+个基点的概率 ...

据polymarket网站最新预测显示，美联储1月议息结果概率：维持不变的概率87%，降息25个基点的概率 12%，降息50+个基点的概率1.3%，加息25+个基点的概率<1%。polymarket预测美联储2026年累计降息 50个基点的概率24%，降息75个基点的概率20%，降息100个基点的概率16%，降息25个基点的概率 10%。 ...

据polymarket网站最新预测显示，美联储1月议息结果概率：维持不变的概率88%，降息25个基点的概率 12%，降息50+个基点的概率1.6%，加息25+个基点的概率<1%。polymarket预测美联储2026年累计降息 50个基点的概率23%，降息75个基点的概率22%，降息100个基点的概率16%，降息125个基点的概率 11%。 ...

据polymarket网站最新预测显示，美联储1月议息结果概率：维持不变的概率81%，降息25个基点的概率 18%，降息50+个基点的概率1.4%，加息25+个基点的概率<1%。polymarket预测美联储2026年累计降息 50个基点的概率23%，降息75个基点的概率21%，降息100个基点的概率16%，降息125个基点的概率 11%。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 据polymarket网站最新预测显示，美联储1月议息结果概率：维持不变的概率77%，降息25个基点的概率 21%，降息50+个基点的概率1.7%，加息25+个基点的概率1.3%。polymarket预测美联储2026年累计降息 75个基点的概率24%，降息50个基点的概率19%，降息100个基点的概率14%，降息25个基点的概率 11%。 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View **Likely Positive Factors** - Domestic factories are stocking up before the Chinese New Year, leading to a slight recovery in demand [3]. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel has narrowed to 4,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount has remained stable [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - High inventory levels persist, and the supply glut remains unchanged [3]. - There are few inquiries in the nickel ore market, demand is sluggish, and prices have stabilized without a clear upward trend [3]. **Trading Advisory View** - It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the short - term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Data** **Nickel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel (SHFE) was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 2,160 yuan or 1.83% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,920 yuan or 1.63% week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 116,060 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 116,290 yuan/ton, down 1,910 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week [3]. - LME nickel 3M was at 14,610 US dollars/ton, down 360 US dollars or 1.62% week - on - week [3]. - The open interest was 106,302 lots, down 5,283 lots or 4.7% week - on - week; the trading volume was 106,815 lots, down 17,698 lots or 14.21% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 33,939 tons, down 825 tons or 2.37% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan or - 373.33% week - on - week [3]. **Stainless Steel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 12,625 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.28% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 12,695 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.36% week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume was 69,415 lots, down 32,225 lots or 31.71% week - on - week; the open interest was 64,258 lots, down 21,427 lots or 25.01% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 61,378 tons, down 241 tons or 0.39% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 570 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 21.28% week - on - week [4]. **Nickel Spot** - Jinchuan nickel was at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.21% day - on - day; imported nickel was at 116,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day; 1 electrolytic nickel was at 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; nickel beans were at 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; electrowon nickel was at 116,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day [4]. **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory was 56,848 tons, up 1,499 tons; LME nickel inventory was 252,852 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 947,600 tons, up 700 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 29,346 tons, down 879 tons [6]. **3.2 Market Trends and Charts** - The report includes charts showing the historical trends of nickel futures prices (both domestic and LME), stainless steel futures prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel supply and inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profitability, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][9][11]. **3.3 Industry Chain Analysis** **Upstream Nickel Ore** - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB) is presented in a historical trend chart, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports is also shown [16]. - The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average landed duty - paid price of Indonesian nickel pig iron (Ni≥14%) are presented in historical trend charts [17]. - The seasonal production volume of nickel iron in China and Indonesia is shown in charts [18][19]. **Downstream Nickel Sulfate** - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, the profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate are presented in historical trend charts [21][23][24]. - The monthly production volume of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown in charts [25]. **Stainless Steel** - The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production volume, and inventory are presented in historical trend charts [27][29][30].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尚无驱动，低位盘整 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 10 日 【行情分析】 大宗商品行情回暖，尿素高开低走后日内偏强。现货报价涨跌互现，市场 价格受期货走向影响，低价收单有转好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，上 游装置停车与复产并存，气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中，日产数据尚未有明 显大幅减少。下游冬储肥及出口订单陆续走货，保持稳定需求增量。复合肥工 厂目前新单成交不畅，原料价格上涨之下，利润受挤压，发运前期订单为主。 本周预计开工负荷将继续回升，但目前已接近近年同期的开工高点，回升空间 不足，后续对尿素支撑以稳为主。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%，目前 的供需逻辑相对紧平衡，预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。宏观视角暂无明 显提振，微观基本面尚有韧性，短期偏强，关注美联储议息对大宗商品的影 响。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1650 元/吨开盘,高开低走，日内震荡偏强， 最终收于 1645 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅+0.06%，持仓量 142791 手（-7855 手）。 ...

【重磅新闻】 12月10日，国家统计局将公布11月CPI、PPI数据。 华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去年11月食品项 环比为-2.7%，是过去十年最低;今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气 温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 11月金融数据或将公布 除CPI、PPI外，11月新增贷款、M2、社融等金融数据也或将在下周公布。 浙商证券预计11月人民币贷款新增3000亿元，同比少增2800亿元，对应增速回落0.1个百分点为6.4%；预计11月社融新增2.2万亿 元，同比少增约342 亿元，对应增速回落0.1 个百分点为8.4%;预计11 月M2 增速为8.0%，回落0.2个百分点;预计11 月M1 增速为 5.3%，回落0.9 个百分点。 美联储将举行议息会议 成品油将迎调价窗口 根据日程安排，美联储将于下周举行议息会议。据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月5日7:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概 率为87%，维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 85,730.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.75% [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent U.S. employment data shows conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. This presents challenges for the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of the December meeting [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues include a shortage of copper concentrate (processing fee at -40 USD/ton) and delays in the resumption of mining operations in Indonesia. Demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and AI is supporting the market, countering weak demand from real estate and home appliances [1] - Market participants are cautious in their purchasing despite suppliers holding prices firm [1] Inventory Levels - Domestic refined copper inventory is not decreasing as expected, with social inventory reported at 194,500 tons as of November 20, showing a slight increase of 0.07 tons and remaining at a high level not seen in three years [1] Overall Market Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December remains low, with weak fundamentals and increasing inventory levels contributing to a bearish outlook for copper prices. Attention will be on the gradual release of U.S. economic data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, demand growth faces certain resistance, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, so the probability of continued consolidation increases. Today, the Shanghai lead price remained volatile with little movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level of 16,980 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 12.5 dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 82,766 lots, down 4,281 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,236 lots, up 573 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, down 325 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,310 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.39 dollars/ton, up 0.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%, up 1.83 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.87 tons, up 0.04 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,873.21 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,060.82 points, down 58.5 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2] Industry News - There are major developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation, with a secret 28 - point peace - talk framework being discussed. The US authorities cancelled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to December 16. The Fed may further shrink its balance sheet. There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US trade deficit in August narrowed significantly. The Trump administration is considering suspending semiconductor tariffs, and the White House is blocking a bill to restrict AI chip exports. The US Attorney General will release the Epstein case file in 30 days [2] View Summary - On the supply side, the supply of domestic lead concentrate for primary lead remains tight, while the production of recycled lead is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakens in November, but the overall operating level will gradually recover. The high Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff issues suppress the growth of demand. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to consolidate [2]