Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand remains largely unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,992 US dollars/ton, down 28 US dollars [3]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position of Shanghai lead was 105,944 lots, an increase of 6,528 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 567 lots, a decrease of 243 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,254 tons, an increase of 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 36.37 US dollars/ton, down 4.57 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, a decrease of 3.7 kilotons [3]. - The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was - 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons [3]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 815.37 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 50 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 1,9925 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,726.56 points, down 33.34 points; the automobile output was 280.86 tons, an increase of 16.66 tons; the new energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two members voting against and advocating a rate cut. Powell was hawkish, and market bets on a full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [3]. - **Tariffs**: Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods, and announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products from August 1 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy remains resilient, and expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Wait for the outcome of this week's macro events. Although OPEC+ has completed its voluntary production cut exit plan ahead of schedule, the peak demand season still provides support for oil prices. However, once the increased production is implemented, it will impact the market. In the short term, focus on short - term trading within the WTI range of $60 - 70, and in the medium to long term, look for opportunities to sell high after the peak demand season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - This week (July 21 - 25), international oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical and demand factors remained relatively stable, and short - term oil prices oscillated around the shale oil cost support. However, the support from peak - season demand may gradually weaken. As of July 25, WTI and Brent settled at $65.16/barrel (-1.74%) and $68.44/barrel (-0.38%) respectively; INE SC settled at 508.6 yuan/barrel (+0.9%) [9]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Against the backdrop of the extension of the tariff suspension, tariff negotiations between the US and other countries and favorable AI policies further boosted market sentiment, and US stocks continued to rise. As of July 25, the S&P 500 index reached 6388.64, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 14.93, continuing to decline from a low level [13]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - Crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of July 25, the crude oil volatility ETF was 32.88, and the US dollar index was 97.67. Crude oil volatility declined as risks eased, while the US dollar index remained under pressure due to significant macro uncertainties [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - WTI fund net long positions increased while speculative net long positions decreased. As of July 22, WTI managed fund net long positions decreased by 0.65 million contracts month - on - month to 9.82 million contracts, with a weekly increase of 7%; speculative net long positions decreased by 1.56 million contracts to 5.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 22%. Since July, peak - season demand has supported oil prices, which have remained around shale oil costs, and speculative long positions are mainly based on relative valuations for short - term operations [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC and OPEC+ Production - OPEC crude oil production increased month - on - month in June, rising by 21.9 million barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Most countries except Iran and Libya have started to increase production. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 23,000 barrels per day below the plan in June, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their compensation production cut plans [24]. - According to the IEA's statistical method, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in June was 23.18 million barrels per day, an increase of 930,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, and the over - production margin increased compared to the previous month, possibly due to the gradual implementation of OPEC+'s increased production [28]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 1.73 million barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day in June. Iran's production declined rapidly, decreasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.241 million barrels per day in June, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical method, Russia's crude oil production in June was 9.025 million barrels per day, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day month - on - month; according to the IEA's statistics, it was 9.19 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Production is gradually recovering under the production increase plan but remains at a very low level [40]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of July 25, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 415, a decrease of 7 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The efficiency improvement of drilling and wells allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The number of rigs in the Permian Basin has decreased significantly, limiting the potential for increased crude oil production [45]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil production showed signs of peaking, dropping marginally to 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year have dampened producers' enthusiasm, reducing the potential for increased US oil production in the second half of the year. However, due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [48]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of July 18, the total weekly demand for US refined oil products and the four - week average rebounded significantly. The average daily demand was 21.77 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.586 million barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [52]. - As of the four - week period ending on July 18, the four - week average demand for US refined oil products decreased. Gasoline demand increased on a weekly basis, but the four - week average decreased by 180,000 barrels per day to 8.814 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.87%; distillate oil average demand decreased by 113,000 barrels per day to 3.619 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04%; kerosene - type average consumption decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 1.742 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.52% [57]. - The US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread oscillated and declined this week. As of July 25, the gasoline crack spread was $22.91 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $35.9 per barrel. The four - week average demand for gasoline and heating oil decreased, and crack spreads declined with the decrease in demand. Gasoline demand was weaker than in previous years, while heating oil demand was better than last year, leading to a divergence in crack spreads between different products [61]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of July 25, the ICE diesel crack spread was $29.14 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.62 per barrel. European diesel, due to low inventory and peak - season restocking demand, performed better than heating oil. The overall oil market was in a relatively warm atmosphere, with crack spreads at a moderately high level. However, diesel inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, cooling market sentiment and causing the crack spread to decline this week [65]. 3.3 China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In June, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.927 million tons year - on - year to 62.245 million tons (+6.73%); imports increased by 3.438 million tons year - on - year to 49.888 million tons (+7.4%). In June, the escalation of the Middle East situation raised concerns about supply, leading to a surge in China's oil imports from the Gulf region. At the same time, the recovery of Russian oil supply was much higher than in previous years, and imports increased month - on - month and remained at a relatively high level [68]. 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - Among international institutions, EIA and OPEC maintained their previous judgments, while IEA continued to lower its forecast for global oil demand growth. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC estimated that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 800,000 barrels per day (-), 700,000 barrels per day (↓), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively. Next year, the growth rates will be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. EIA stated that this year's global oil demand growth is mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially India and China. IEA continuously lowered its forecast because it believes that emerging markets outside Europe and Asia have resilient oil demand, while oil demand in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and the US has decreased significantly due to trade frictions. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of global oil demand will continue in the second half of the year until 2026 when the global monetary and fiscal policies become more accommodative [73]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased. As of July 18, EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316,900 barrels from the previous week to 418.99 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.01%; SPR inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels to 21.863 million barrels [74]. - As of the week of July 18, US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 2.121 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 87,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 16.936 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 1.6% to 95.5% [78]. - The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure, but the indicators began to weaken. As of July 25, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.82 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.08 per barrel. As US refined oil demand gradually peaks, the support from the peak season for oil prices is weakening. With OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the month - spread may continue to decline [82]. 4.2 Brent Month - Spread - The Brent month - spread also maintained a backwardation structure, but showed signs of weakening on a weekly basis. As of July 25, the Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.78 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $2.01 per barrel [85]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's July forecast, this year's global oil supply is 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.54 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month's surplus. This is mainly because EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and production increases outside the group will continue to drive strong growth in global liquid fuel production [89]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, US fundamental data showed that peak - season demand is starting to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent, due to strong diesel demand and good crack spreads, can support a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as peak - season demand gradually weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [93].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unusual visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve, where he urged Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting the tension between the two [1][3][4] - This visit marks the first time in nearly 20 years that a sitting U.S. president has officially visited the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the tradition of the Fed's independence from the White House [1] - During the visit, Trump expressed concerns over the $3.1 billion renovation costs of the Fed building, using it as a platform to criticize the Fed's management and budgetary decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Trump reiterated his desire for interest rate cuts, stating that he hopes to see rates come down, indicating a focus on monetary policy during his discussions with Powell [3][4] - Despite the tension, Trump described the conversation with Powell as "good" but did not disclose specific details due to the Fed's pre-meeting silence period [3] - The article notes that there is widespread expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year, although Powell remains cautious due to inflation concerns linked to Trump's tariff policies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting the fragile state of the U.S. economy amid conflicting pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The removal of the phrase "risks of inflation and unemployment are rising" indicates a shift in the Fed's assessment of economic risks from "broad vigilance" to "structural caution" [2]. - The OECD has significantly downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and raised the inflation forecast to 3.2%, highlighting a typical sign of stagflation risk [2]. - The Fed's latest economic projections show an increase in core inflation expectations for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, while GDP growth expectations have been reduced from 1.7% to 1.4% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - U.S. tariff policies are a major variable affecting economic and policy outlook, with the Fed remaining highly vigilant about the impact of trade conditions on inflation [3]. - Increased tariffs are expected to raise import prices, exacerbating inflation in the short term while suppressing demand, with long-term effects dependent on various complex factors [3]. - The Fed's cautious stance reflects both prudence and a sense of helplessness in the face of trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, and unexpectedly resilient inflation, leading to rising living costs and job market instability for Americans [3].