氯碱日报 | 2025-11-21 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2261元/吨（-4）；山东32%液碱基差177元/吨（+4）。 PVC再探底，关注装置检修动态 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4456元/吨（-36）；华东基差-36元/吨（-4）;华南基差14元/吨（-4）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4420元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4470元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润7.4美元/吨（+2.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率80.15%（+0.58%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%（+1.18%）；PVC开工率77.48%（+0.77%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to experience range - bound and weak oscillations. Supply is abundant due to the resumption of maintenance and new production capacity, while demand shows only a slight improvement in downstream开工率 with average purchasing sentiment. Exports are facing challenges such as the expected anti - dumping tax in India and weakening order volume. Inventory levels are high, and futures prices are under pressure [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable with a slight increase in the price of 50% caustic soda. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production in some plants, and demand from the alumina industry is affected by environmental control, while non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price in the next two months [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,630 yuan/ton (- 8), the East China basis is - 60 yuan/ton (- 2), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,570 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,620 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 60), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (- 48), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 4.0 dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operating rate: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+ 0.4), the PVC social inventory is 54.5 tons (- 1.0), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 80.17% (+ 3.70%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 77.23% (- 1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+ 2.19%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+ 13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,343 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 157 yuan/ton (- 40) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 845.8 yuan/ton (+ 39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 73.78 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 862.03 yuan/ton (- 117.20) [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (- 2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+ 0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+ 0.50%) [2]. - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing and printing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (- 0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance has resumed this week, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but purchasing sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are trading volume for price, and export orders are weakening. India is expected to impose anti - dumping taxes in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is high. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: There are both new maintenance enterprises and production resumptions, and the operating rate is increasing. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity launch of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina are stable, but the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in Hebei has decreased due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken, but the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has slightly decreased, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased this week [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [5]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].