十五五装机规划
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中国电力:十五五期內装机预期保持均衡增长,仍重视股东回报-20260325
BOCOM International· 2026-03-25 05:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 3.75, indicating an expected upside of 18.7% from the current price [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on balanced growth in installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on shareholder returns [1]. - Despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline in profit for 2025, the company increased its final dividend by 3.7% to CNY 0.168 per share, raising the payout ratio to 70% [4]. - The company aims to increase the proportion of wind power installations while reducing solar power installations to below 30% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company's revenue is projected to decline by 9.6% to CNY 49.03 billion, with operating profit decreasing by 1.9% to CNY 11.94 billion [5]. - The company expects to recover approximately CNY 6 billion in subsidies, a year-on-year increase of about CNY 4 billion, while capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease by CNY 10 billion [4]. - The overall limit on electricity usage is around 9%, with wind and solar power experiencing curtailment rates of approximately 9% and 10.5%, respectively [4]. Operational Strategy - The management plans to prioritize resources for wind power projects, targeting an increase in wind power's share of installed capacity by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The company completed the restructuring of its hydropower assets and aims to inject major hydropower assets into the power investment platform within three years [3]. - The capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at CNY 20 billion, focusing on optimizing installation structure and regional layout [4]. Segment Performance - The operating profit for thermal power is expected to increase by 4.9% to CNY 2.88 billion, while wind power and solar power segments are projected to see declines of 10.6% and 16.9%, respectively [6]. - The storage business is expected to show significant growth, with an operating profit of CNY 52 million, up 108.2% year-on-year [6].