Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing a critical shortage of essential raw materials, which poses a significant risk to the growth and stability of the trillion-dollar sector. This shortage is driven by geopolitical tensions, increased demand from AI and other technologies, and supply chain disruptions [4][5][24]. Group 1: Current Material Shortages - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a collective shortage of multiple raw materials, including gallium, indium phosphide, germanium, tungsten hexafluoride, and high-purity silicon, which are crucial for chip manufacturing [5][6]. - Gallium prices have surged over 40% in Europe due to export controls from China, leading to extended delivery times and reduced inventory at chip manufacturers [8][9]. - Indium phosphide is in severe shortage due to skyrocketing demand from AI applications, with some buyers willing to pay any price for available supplies [10][12]. Group 2: Price Increases and Supply Chain Impact - Germanium prices reached a 14-year high, with a price increase of over 350% since early 2023, driven by supply constraints and surging demand from low-orbit satellites and AI computing [13]. - Tungsten hexafluoride prices are expected to rise by 70% to 90% due to increased tungsten prices, which have doubled since early 2023, impacting chip manufacturing costs significantly [14][15]. - The shortage of high-end PCB materials, driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in demand for AI servers, is causing supply constraints for advanced chip packaging [16][17]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Influences - The global semiconductor materials shortage is exacerbated by national security policies, with countries implementing export controls and strategic reserves to secure their supply chains [19][20]. - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for gallium, with domestic production capabilities limited, leading to increased efforts to develop recycling technologies to mitigate shortages [8][9][19]. - China's export restrictions on key metals have led to a significant reduction in global supply, prompting other nations to seek self-sufficiency in critical materials [19][23]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ongoing material shortages are likely to extend the technology iteration cycle in the semiconductor industry, delaying advancements in chip manufacturing and product releases [22]. - The shift towards regional self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials may lead to a bifurcation of the global supply chain, with a clear divide between China-led and U.S.-led technology ecosystems [23][24]. - The semiconductor industry's future will require a focus on resource management and innovation in recycling and alternative materials to address the challenges posed by limited raw materials [24][25].