半导体硅片行业周期性库存调整

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沪硅产业(688126):300mm硅片扩产加速,盈利能力承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-05 13:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated expansion in 300mm silicon wafer production, but its profitability is under pressure due to market conditions [5][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 802 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 209 million yuan [7] - The silicon wafer market is currently facing price pressures, leading to a significant decline in profitability and necessitating adjustments in revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are adjusted to 4,610 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.1% [6] - The company is expected to incur a net loss of 189 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [6][8] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 8.6% in 2025, following a challenging period with negative margins in previous years [6][8] Market Context - The global semiconductor silicon wafer market has entered a cyclical inventory adjustment phase, with a notable decline in shipment areas in recent years [7] - The company has achieved a 72% increase in 300mm silicon wafer sales in 2024, indicating strong demand despite market challenges [7] - The company has developed over 150 new products in the high-end silicon wafer segment, showcasing its competitive strength in the market [7]