半导体硅片行业复苏
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沪硅产业(688126):定增收购300mm硅片资产股权,扩产期利润承压:沪硅产业(688126):
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-13 08:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is acquiring 300mm silicon wafer assets, which may pressure profits during the expansion period [1] - The semiconductor silicon wafer industry is currently in a recovery cycle after a significant downturn in 2023, with expectations for a slight increase in 300mm wafer shipments starting from Q2 2024 [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts downward due to pricing and cost pressures in both 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,388 million yuan in 2024 to 6,087 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from -971 million yuan in 2024 to 275 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [2] - The gross margin is forecasted to turn positive by 2026, reaching 14.8% in that year [2] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has developed over 150 new products in the 300mm silicon wafer segment, with more than 60 products entering mass production [5] - The current market share of the company's products includes approximately 60-65% for storage polishing wafers and 30% for logic wafers [5] - The company’s price-to-sales (PS) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 15X, which is 18% lower than the average PS of comparable semiconductor material companies [5]