半导体硅片行业景气周期
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沪硅产业(688126):定增收购300mm硅片资产股权,扩产期利润承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-13 06:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The company is acquiring 300mm silicon wafer assets, which may pressure profits during the expansion period [1] - The semiconductor silicon wafer industry is in a recovery cycle after a significant downturn in 2023, with expectations for growth in 2025 [6] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts downward due to pricing and cost pressures in both 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,388 million yuan in 2024 to 6,087 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 24.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from -971 million yuan in 2024 to 275 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [2] - The gross margin is forecasted to recover from -9.0% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2027 [2] Company Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the company has a net asset value per share of 4.11 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.49% [3] - The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire stakes in several entities related to the 300mm silicon wafer project, totaling 7.04 billion yuan [6] Market Context - The global semiconductor silicon wafer market is expected to see a slight recovery in 2024, with a projected 2.67% decline in shipment area, which is an improvement compared to 2023 [6] - The company has developed over 150 new products in the 300mm silicon wafer segment, with more than 60 products entering mass production [6]