半导体设备东升西降

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每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-09-23)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-23 11:42
Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the recent surge in gold prices to historical highs suggests underlying panic in the stock market, as gold is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty [1] - The market is increasingly concerned about potential government shutdowns in the U.S. and slowing job growth, which are contributing to the fear reflected in rising gold prices [1] - Credit Suisse notes that comments from Fed Governor Milan regarding a potential 150 basis point rate cut have had minimal impact on market expectations, as evidenced by the continued rise in two-year Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - ING maintains a neutral stance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term, while looking for opportunities to short 10-year Treasuries, anticipating a rise in yields to 4.5% by 2026 [2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates in December is low, despite potential economic weakness, with expected rate cuts in February and April [2] - CICC reports a continued trend of deposit migration, primarily driven by a shift towards equity markets, although the pace of this migration has slowed [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities predicts an acceleration of the "East rises, West declines" trend in the semiconductor equipment market in China, with global equipment company revenues expected to grow by 24% year-on-year by Q2 2025 [3] - CITIC Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of Congo's new cobalt export quotas may lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices due to supply constraints [4] - CITIC JianTou expresses optimism about the robotics sector, driven by advancements in Tesla's Optimus and other companies, indicating a return to technology growth as a key investment theme [5] Group 4 - CITIC Securities notes that solid-state battery trials are beginning, with a focus on improving interface and pressure conditions to address key challenges [6] - CITIC JianTou forecasts that global investment in power grids will exceed $400 billion by 2025, driven by rising electricity demand and increased capital expenditures from major companies [7] - Galaxy Securities reports that positive factors for banks are accumulating, suggesting a potential turning point for mid-term performance improvements [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities continues to favor sectors related to computing power, including PCB, domestic computing, IP licensing, and chip inductors, anticipating a recovery in the foldable screen market by 2026 [9] - Everbright Securities indicates that domestic engineering machinery sales are performing well despite seasonal trends, with significant growth in non-excavator categories [10]
德银、中金等机构:黄金新高、钴价或涨等观点梳理
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 09:15
Group 1 - Deutsche Bank indicates that the continuous rise in gold prices reflects underlying panic in the stock market [1] - Credit Suisse states that comments regarding a "150 basis point rate cut" in Milan have minimal impact, with the market choosing to vote with its feet [1] - ING holds a neutral view on US Treasuries in the short term, while looking for opportunities to short 10-year Treasuries [1] Group 2 - CICC reports that the trend of deposit migration continues, but the pace has slowed [1] - Huatai Securities notes that the semiconductor equipment market in China is experiencing an "east rising, west declining" trend in the second half of the year [1] - CITIC Securities points out that the Democratic Republic of Congo has announced cobalt export quotas, which may lead to a strong increase in cobalt prices [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jinpu is optimistic about robots becoming a main line for technology growth allocation [1] - CITIC Securities reminds that the road testing for all-solid-state batteries has begun, and attention should be paid to their improvement and vehicle pressure [1] - CITIC Jinpu expects global investment in power grids to exceed $400 billion by 2025, indicating sustained high prosperity [1] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities believes that positive factors for banks are continuously accumulating, with mid-term performance expected to improve, signaling a potential turning point [1] - Galaxy Securities continues to favor computing-related PCB, domestic computing, IP licensing, and chip inductors in the second half of the year [1] - Everbright Securities states that the domestic engineering machinery market in August is "not dull in the off-season," with significant recovery in the non-excavator category [1]