Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the mixed performance of various sectors and the impact of external factors such as Nvidia's earnings report. It emphasizes the ongoing volatility and the potential for investment opportunities, particularly in bank stocks and storage leaders, while also noting the challenges faced by the broader market. Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40%, Shenzhen Component down 0.76%, and ChiNext down 1.12% on November 20. The total trading volume was 17,227.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.48 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [12]. - The banking sector showed resilience, with major banks like China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reaching historical highs, each exceeding a market capitalization of 20 billion yuan [12]. Sector Analysis - The storage sector saw significant gains, with six major storage leaders experiencing a surge in total market capitalization approaching 7 trillion yuan, influenced by Nvidia's Q3 performance exceeding expectations [3]. - The real estate sector is expected to receive a boost from potential new stimulus policies, including mortgage subsidies for first-time homebuyers, which could enhance market sentiment [6]. Investment Trends - The article notes a shift in investment behavior, with high-net-worth individuals driving new A-share account openings, contrasting with lower participation from ordinary residents. The number of new A-share accounts rose from 1.65 million to 2.94 million between June and September, indicating a potential focus on wealthier investors [4]. - The concept of "deposit migration" is gaining traction, as investors move funds from low-yield savings accounts to higher-yield stock investments, which could enhance market liquidity and consumer confidence through the "wealth effect" [4]. Technical Indicators - The market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4,000-point mark, with concerns about a potential peak in the bull market. Various indicators, including equity risk premium and trading volume, suggest a short-term correction may be imminent, although no definitive signals of a market top have emerged [10][11]. - The article highlights that while some technical indicators show signs of overbought conditions, the overall valuation metrics remain within reasonable ranges, suggesting that the bull market may continue with support from retail deposits and public funds [11].

今日A股全天震荡。上证综指微涨0.18%报3946.74点，深证成指持平，创业板指上涨0.25%，科创综指 下跌1.99%。沪深两市成交额1.73万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量2002亿元。板块层面，黄金相关板块， 如黄金股票、有色、矿业涨幅居前，红利板块表现不弱；影视、游戏、软件等高弹性板块回撤。风险偏 好来看，今日风险中性较弱。个股跌多涨少，全市场超4100只个股下跌。风格层面，小盘弱于大盘，成 长弱于价值，双创分化。总体而言，今日风险偏好处于中性偏弱状态。 A股延续震荡整理态势。目前的回撤不代表牛市终结，一方面过剩流动性持续增加，存款搬家叙事仍 存；另一方面科技、反内卷与出口有长期逻辑，乐观情绪还在。但若缺乏刺激性利好，震荡期可能不会 马上结束。站在目前时点，提出两个观点：其一是进行主线品种与防御性品种的均衡配置；其二则是需 要等待收入预期的提振。 一方面，我国处于新旧动能切换的大背景没有变，景气行业仍集中在科技(AI链为主)、反内卷(光伏、 锂电等上游资源)以及制造业出口，可关注通信ETF(515880)、芯片ETF(512760)，光伏50ETF(159864)， 煤炭ETF(515220)等。若预期近 ...

今年以来，"存款搬家"的概念在金融市场上广受热议。市场机构普遍预计，随着利率下行、股市回暖， 居民开始将资金从存款等低收益资产转向股票等高收益领域。从理论层面来看，引导存量资金入市推动 股市上涨，既可以增强股市的间接融资能力，也可以增厚居民收益，并通过所谓的"财富效应"进一步提 振消费与信心。从政策层面来看，近期发布的"十五五"建议中对建设金融强国着墨颇多，也反映出政府 对利用金融市场的"财富效应"提振居民消费能力抱有殷切希望。 从数据上看，中国的"存款搬家入市"确实在发生。低利率、低回报背景下，居民活期存款下降、非银存 款上升，反映出流动性正在向资本市场迁移。中金公司的研报显示，一方面，7-8月居民活期存款累计 下降1.3万亿元，非银存款累计上升3.3万亿元，显示存款可能正流向资本市场；另一方面，M1不断提 升，表明此前呈定期化趋势的存款在不断"活化"，成为可能随时入市的"后备力量"。9月存款活化的趋 势仍在继续，居民活期存款较8月增加1.8万亿元达到43.4万亿元，M1同比也超预期走高至7.2%。根据中 金银行组测算，2025年到期的定期存款达59万亿元，3年期存款利率与2022年相比下降1.4ppt至1 ...

曾经稳稳的存款收益，如今正悄然"缩水"，甚至部分银行直接让五年期定存"下架"？ 早年，这五年期定期存款是中老年投资者最信赖的理财方式之一。它保本、保息，利率高于短期存款，是保守型投资者的"安心之选"。 然而，时过境迁，这类产 品正逐渐退出主流舞台。 银行此举并非盲目跟风，而是有着深刻的现实考量。数据显示，2025年一季度，超三成定期存款客户提前支取，平均损失超过七成利息。 以10万元存五年期定存为例，如果存满到期，按1.6%的年利率可获利息8000元；但若在两年后提前支取，只能按0.05%的活期利率计息，利息仅100元，损 失高达98.75%。对客户和银行来说，这都是不愿看到的结果。 与此同时，银行存款利率已全面进入"1时代"。 更让人困惑的是，利率"倒挂"现象愈发普遍。比如中国建设银行三年期定期存款利率最高为1.55%，而五年期最高仅为1.3%。存五年反而比存三年收益低， 这种看似违背常理的现象，折射出银行对长期资金成本的忧虑。 而银行客户经理的推荐话术也悄然生变。当客户对定存利率表示"不满意"时，银保产品成为新的推销重点。 实际仔细看，银行下架五年期定存产品的背后，是我国银行业净息差持续承压的现实。净息差 ...

中国数万亿存款去哪了？ 业内权威称"搬家说"不严谨 作者：亓宁 央行近日披露的10月金融统计数据报告显示，当月居民存款、企业存款分别减少1.34万亿元、1.09万亿 元，非银存款则增加了1.85万亿元。 不少市场人士认为，央行数据进一步表明，股市赚钱效应正持续带动居民存款搬家。但第一财经从多位 业内权威人士处了解到，"存款搬家"其实说法并不严谨，居民、企业和非银机构用存款买卖股票，只是 存款和股票在不同主体之间的重新分配，买股票的人存款减少、股票增多，卖股票的人股票减少、存款 增多，整体上看存款是大体不变的。当然，从大类资产市值的角度看，股市上涨，会带来股票总市值上 升，相对于存款的比重会有所提高。 一位理财行业人士对第一财经表示，相比更受关注的规模数据变化，"存款搬家"的机遇更多在结构层 面，"固收+"做得好不好、如何做好成为业内越来越关注的议题。 但当下，固收类产品仍是理财市场的主流，多数机构发力"固收+"采取的是"小步慢跑"策略。第一财经 记者采访了解到，今年以来，不少理财公司的"固收+"产品都取得了不错的成绩，少数产品年化收益率 可至5%，甚至7%以上。有券商测算，今年全市场"固收+"理财规模增长预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a significant shift in deposit patterns, with a notable decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, while non-bank deposits have increased, suggesting a reallocation of funds rather than a true "deposit migration" [3][6]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In October, resident deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, and corporate deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan [3]. - The term "deposit migration" is deemed inaccurate as it reflects a redistribution of deposits among different entities rather than a net decrease in total deposits [3][6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to the expansion of wealth management products and sustained trading activity in the stock market [6]. Group 2: Wealth Management Products - Fixed income products remain the mainstream in the wealth management market, with many institutions adopting a cautious approach to "fixed income plus" strategies [4]. - Some wealth management products have achieved annualized returns of up to 5% or even over 7% this year, with an estimated growth of over 1.4 trillion yuan in the overall market for "fixed income plus" products [4][10]. - The popularity of "fixed income plus" products is driven by declining interest rates and the need for higher returns, as the one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% [10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a notable shift in investor risk preferences, with an increase in the number of high-risk preference investors compared to low-risk preference investors, reversing a four-year downward trend [7]. - The transition to "fixed income plus" products is seen as a suitable pathway for new investors moving from low-risk to equity assets [9]. - Institutions are beginning to diversify their portfolios by increasing allocations to equity-like assets within "fixed income plus" products, reflecting a growing acceptance of volatility among institutional investors [11][16]. Group 4: Market Growth and Challenges - The total market size for wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.42% [13]. - The transition to "fixed income plus" strategies is progressing slowly due to investors' limited acceptance of net value fluctuations and the need for improved research capabilities among wealth management firms [13][14]. - Balancing risk and return remains a critical challenge for wealth management companies as they navigate the ongoing "deposit migration" trend [14].

理财加速布局"真"权益类资产。 央行最新披露的数据显示，10月居民存款、企业存款分别减少1.34万亿元、1.09万亿元，非银存款则增 加1.85万亿元。 在不少机构人士看来，这进一步表明，股市赚钱效应持续带动居民存款搬家。 上述理财行业人士表示，一方面，广义上的"存款搬家"对理财来说并非新事，理财的广大客群基础很大 程度上正是从银行存款客群发展而来；另一方面，狭义上所谓的"存款搬家入市"对应的是投资者风险偏 好上升、权益市场分流资金，银行理财求"稳"为主的传统定位可能使其吸引力下降。 那么，存款搬家入市的猜测是否准确？对理财等资管市场是何影响？一位理财行业人士对第一财经记者 表示，相比市场更关注的规模数据变化，"存款搬家"的机遇更多在结构层面，"固收+"做得好不好、如 何做好成为业内越来越关注的议题。 但当下，固收类产品仍是理财市场的主流，多数机构发力"固收+"采取的是"小步慢跑"的节奏。据第一 财经采访了解，今年以来，不少理财公司的"固收+"产品都取得了不错成绩，少数产品年化收益率可至 5%甚至7%以上。有券商测算，基于供需两旺的市场态势，今年全市场"固收+"理财规模增长预计超过 1.4万亿元。 存款非银化 ...

中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")11月13日发布的《2025年10月金融统计数据报告》显示，今年前十个月 人民币存款增加23.32万亿元。其中，住户存款增加11.39万亿元，非金融企业存款增加4447亿元，财政 性存款增加2.09万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款(以下简称"非银存款")增加6.66万亿元。 央行此前发布的数据显示，前三季度人民币存款增加22.71万亿元。其中，住户存款增加12.73万亿元， 非金融企业存款增加1.53万亿元，财政性存款增加1.37万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加4.81万亿 元。 由此计算，10月份，住户存款减少1.34万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款则增加1.85万亿元。 "10月份，非银存款同比多增、居民存款同比多减的格局再现，居民'存款搬家'或再度演绎。"兴业证券 发布的研报认为，本期新增非银存款同比多增0.77万亿元，新增居民存款同比多减0.77万亿元。新增非 银存款和居民存款同比走势再度分化一方面是季节性因素的扰动，另一方面或也指向权益市场持续向好 下，居民"存款搬家"再度演绎。 "本月金融数据显示股市赚钱效应进一步带动居民'存款搬家'，是值得市场关注的积极信号。"中国银河 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China and the implications of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the potential decline in tariff levels and its impact on trade dynamics [5][8]. Deep Dive - The macroeconomic analysis by Zhao Wei emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's economic landscape and future outlook, particularly in light of recent global events [6][7]. Hot Topics - The article analyzes the ongoing debate regarding U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the scale of tariffs may decrease by 25% under baseline scenarios, which could significantly affect trade relations [8]. - The Supreme Court's deliberations on the legality of "countervailing tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are highlighted, with various justices expressing differing views on the extent of executive power in tariff imposition [8]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article identifies three main factors contributing to the recent rise in inflation, indicating that the impact of internal competition is limited, and other external factors are more influential [11]. - It discusses the necessity of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through a combination of policy tools to support economic growth [12]. - The recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is noted, with implications for market stability and employment figures, as ADP employment data exceeded expectations [16][19]. - The analysis points out the economic challenges stemming from overdrawn commodity demand and investment slowdowns, while also noting the recovery in service consumption and easing debt pressures [20]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is re-emerging, indicating shifts in consumer behavior regarding savings [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China and the implications of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the potential decline in tariff levels and its impact on trade dynamics [5][8]. Deep Dive - The macroeconomic analysis by Zhao Wei emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's economic landscape and future outlook, particularly in light of recent global events [6][7]. Hot Topics - The article analyzes the ongoing debate regarding U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the scale of tariffs may decrease by 25% under baseline scenarios, which could significantly affect trade relations [8]. - The Supreme Court's deliberations on the legality of "countervailing tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are highlighted, with various justices expressing differing views on the extent of executive power in imposing tariffs [8]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article identifies three main factors contributing to the recent rise in inflation, indicating that the impact of internal competition is limited, and other external factors are more influential [11]. - It discusses the necessity of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through a combination of policy tools to support economic growth [12]. - The recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and stronger-than-expected ADP employment figures are noted as positive developments for the U.S. economy [16][19]. Economic Insights - The article points out the challenges in the economy, such as overspending in commodity demand and investment drag, while also noting the recovery in service consumption and easing debt pressures as positive signs [20]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is mentioned, indicating shifts in consumer behavior regarding savings [22].