Group 1: Economic Sanctions and Impact on Russia - The US and EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russian oil companies, targeting half of Russia's crude oil exports, and have banned liquefied natural gas imports from Russia [1] - The price cap on Russian oil is set at $47.6 per barrel, significantly reducing profit margins for Russian oil sales [1][6] - Russia's attempts to redirect energy exports to countries like India and China are hindered by a diversified global energy market, which cannot fully absorb the volumes previously exported to the West [6] Group 2: Military and Strategic Responses - Russia's military response includes nuclear drills and warnings against US arms supplies to Ukraine, indicating a show of nuclear deterrence [3][12] - The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is questioned, as both the US and Russia possess mutual assured destruction capabilities, limiting the likelihood of direct conflict [3] - Historical precedents suggest that major powers may avoid direct confrontation, opting instead for conventional or proxy warfare [3] Group 3: Future Scenarios and Political Dynamics - A potential ceasefire may emerge as Russia recognizes its inability to sustain a long-term economic and technological competition with the West [8] - The geopolitical landscape may shift, allowing Russia to balance relations with both the West and non-Western countries like China, depending on the evolving strategic needs of the US [8][12] - The ongoing sanctions highlight the importance of economic strength and technological independence for national security, as Russia's reliance on energy exports exposes its vulnerabilities [14]