从这笔账开始说起，眼下乌克兰的战事已经让局势变得非常复杂，消耗巨大，而美国的态度也逐渐变 冷，欧洲不得不承担更大的责任。俄罗斯的3000亿美元被冻结资产原本是一个极具诱惑力的蛋糕，理论 上，欧洲可以拿这些钱来缓解对乌克兰的支持压力，但在关键时刻，欧洲却犹豫了。这不再仅仅是为了 分蛋糕的问题，而是关系到是否会直接引发冲突，甚至是核战争的生死问题。 12月19日，欧洲联盟的27个成员国举行了一场长达十几个小时的会议，讨论俄罗斯被冻结的3000亿美元 主权资产的处理问题。会议上，各国激烈争论，面红耳赤，最终却做出了一个显得极为保守的决定—— 他们选择不动俄罗斯的资产。这个结果其实并不令人意外，表面上看，这似乎是一个经济问题，然而其 中却关系到生死存亡。 最后，欧盟各国达成了一个妥协的方案：他们决定通过借款和发行债券筹集900亿欧元支持乌克兰，而 俄罗斯的被冻结资产则暂时不动。这一妥协表明，欧洲的胆量没能与他们的野心匹配，结果只能通过口 头上的支持和空谈来安抚局势。 有些人认为俄罗斯的威胁不过是吓唬人，认为西方不至于为了一笔钱去冒着战争的风险。但大家不要忘 了，在俄罗斯的视角中，这不仅仅是金钱问题，而是涉及国家主权和 ...

当引领未来的新质战斗力走出演训场，以整齐的阵容、昂扬的姿态，接受祖国和人民的检阅，就构成了 我们2025年度记忆中，关于"重器闪耀时"最直观、最震撼的篇章。 巨浪-3是潜射弹道导弹，水下发射。水的密度大约是空气的800倍，弹头采用钝形设计，可以提升它在 水下运动的稳定性，减少水下阻力，避免水波和风浪阻力对弹头造成前进中的偏离影响。另外潜艇内部 的空间非常有限，导弹的长度必须严格控制，钝头设计可以缩短导弹尖头部分的长度，更紧凑地适配潜 艇发射管，同时不影响战斗部的有效载荷。 东风-5C液体洲际战略核导弹打击范围覆盖全球，全时戒备、有效威慑，以武止戈、砥定乾坤！手握战 略重器，铸就和平盾牌。 海基 陆基 空基 导弹外形大有奥秘 九三阅兵中，惊雷-1空基远程导弹、巨浪-3潜射洲际导弹，东风-61陆基洲际导弹，东风-31新型陆基洲 际导弹，首次集中展示我军陆海空基三位一体战略核力量，是维护国家主权，捍卫民族尊严的战略"王 牌"。 军事专家 邵永灵：弹道导弹因为发射方式、作战用途、技术要求不同，所以它的弹头外观就会存在很 大差异。惊雷-1是空射核导弹，挂载在轰炸机上，它采用的是双锥体弹头，有利于减少导弹飞行时面临 的空 ...

来源：新华网 5月9日，在俄罗斯首都莫斯科，军人参加纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年阅兵式。新华社记者赖向东摄 新华社莫斯科/圣彼得堡12月21日电（记者赵冰 安晓萌）2025年10月最后一周，俄罗斯总统普京在两次公开活动中巧妙透露俄最新研发的"海 燕"核动力巡航导弹、"波塞冬"核动力无人潜航器测试消息。面对俄核威慑力量的升级，美国总统特朗普要求五角大楼立即"对等"启动核武器试 验。 当前，俄乌和谈进展缓慢，俄美之间仅存的军控条约《新削减战略武器条约》将于2026年2月到期，"海燕"和"波塞冬"可成为俄方在军控等问题 上的重要筹码。西方普遍将"海燕"与"波塞冬"界定为用于核报复的二次打击武器，并非核武器的迭代升级，主要作用是政治筹码和心理威慑。 高调官宣 俄总统网站10月26日发布消息说，普京听取俄武装力量总参谋长格拉西莫夫汇报时，要求其着重介绍最近试射的"海燕"巡航导弹的相关情况，并 反复询问"海燕"的技术性能。 10月29日，普京视察曼德雷卡中央军事临床医院时特意通报："昨天我们对'波塞冬'无人潜航器进行了测试，它同样采用了核动力推进系 统……"据俄媒体总结，"波塞冬"由核动力驱动并可携带核战斗部，可视作 ...

媒体迅速跟进了这件事。12月2日和4日，多家新闻网站刊登了相关文章，详细报道了马斯克的警告如何引发了网络用户的混乱。很多网友在评论区纷纷询 问，是否这条消息是针对某个特定地区的，还是只是泛指某种全球趋势。一些报道指出，马斯克的言论引发了关于全球安全的广泛讨论，大家开始重新审视 国际对话的重要性，思考地缘政治风险对全球经济和供应链的影响。新闻网站还提到，尽管这种预测引发了公众的焦虑，却也推动了政策层面的辩论。回顾 马斯克过去的言论，事实上，这不是他第一次谈及战争问题。早在2024年8月，英国爆发反移民骚乱时，马斯克就在X平台上回应某条帖子时表示，内战几 乎是不可避免的。当时，骚乱中的示威者破坏了公共设施，焚烧了车辆，并向警察投掷砖块。英国首相Keir Starmer的发言人当时回应称，不应该轻易下此 结论。马斯克当时并未展开细节讨论，但他直指移民政策和开放边境所带来的问题。更早之前的2023年10月，马斯克在一次直播中谈到中东和乌克兰的军事 冲突，并指出这些冲突可能发展成第三次世界大战。他强调，作为亿万富翁，他能从商业角度看待全球事务，但他的关注点依然放在这些冲突有可能升级成 更大规模的战争上。尽管没有给出具体 ...

Core Points - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has officially initiated discussions to revise three key security documents, focusing on the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" and new defense spending targets [1][2] - The LDP aims to consolidate internal opinions by April next year and complete the revisions by the end of next year, with a goal to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2025, potentially under U.S. pressure to raise it to 3.5% [1][2] Group 1 - The meeting emphasized Japan's long-standing "Three Non-Nuclear Principles": not possessing, not producing, and not introducing nuclear weapons [2] - There are indications that some members of the government believe the "not introducing" principle may weaken the effectiveness of U.S. nuclear deterrence [2] - Discussions will also include revising defense equipment transfer rules, drone operations, accelerated deployment of long-range missiles, and the potential procurement of nuclear-powered submarines [2] Group 2 - Japan's current constitution restricts the Self-Defense Forces' overseas operations to anti-piracy and international peacekeeping missions, only allowing self-defense in direct attacks [2] - Concerns have been raised by Chinese officials regarding Japan's military security developments, suggesting a significant negative shift in Japan's policy and signaling potential dangers to the international community [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses Russia's strategic shift towards self-sufficiency in rare earth elements (REE) as a response to global market dynamics and security concerns [2][9][31] Group 1: Rare Earth Elements Strategy - Putin's directive for a roadmap on rare earth development emphasizes the need for Russia to control its own resources rather than relying on imports [2][4] - Russia possesses over 28 million tons of confirmed rare earth reserves, ranking among the top five globally, yet processes less than 1% of the world's rare earth materials domestically [4][9] - The global demand for rare earths is growing at a rate of 6% annually, making them crucial for high-tech manufacturing and defense industries [9][31] Group 2: Security and Defense Policy - Alongside the rare earth initiative, Putin revised nuclear deterrence policies, asserting the right to use nuclear weapons if Russia or its allies face aggression [12][15] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and NATO's expansion have heightened Russia's security concerns, prompting a focus on both nuclear deterrence and resource independence [15][17] Group 3: Economic Independence and Cooperation - Russia aims to maintain economic independence while fostering equal partnerships, particularly with China, rather than becoming overly reliant on any single country [20][27] - The increase in bilateral trade with China, projected to reach $244.82 billion in 2024, reflects a mutual benefit rather than dependency [20][29] - Russia's approach includes diversifying partnerships with countries like India and Turkey, showcasing a strategy of not putting all economic interests in one basket [24][29]

Core Viewpoint - Russia has successfully tested two new types of nuclear weapons, the "Zircon" nuclear-powered cruise missile and the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle, which have garnered significant attention from Western military and media analysts [1][3]. Group 1: Zircon Missile - The "Zircon" missile is approximately 12 meters long and can carry a nuclear warhead with a yield of 50 kilotons, providing global strike capabilities [1]. - It can fly nearly 30,000 kilometers without interruption due to its nuclear power, operating at a cruising altitude of 25 to 100 meters, which allows it to evade enemy air defense systems [3]. - The missile's potential flight path includes low-altitude travel over the Arctic, crossing the Atlantic, and ultimately reaching the North American west coast, posing a strategic threat to NATO [3]. Group 2: Poseidon Underwater Vehicle - The "Poseidon" is about 20 meters long and weighs around 100 tons, powered by a liquid metal-cooled reactor, capable of underwater travel at depths of up to 1,000 meters for over 10,000 kilometers [4]. - It can carry a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 1 megaton, sufficient to destroy military ports and warships, and disrupt commercial shipping for an extended period [6]. - The Poseidon operates outside the current arms control regulations, making it difficult for the West to monitor, and poses a challenge to existing land-based and space-based missile defense systems [6]. - Analysts suggest that large-scale deployment of the Poseidon could enhance Russia's second-strike capabilities and compel the West to invest heavily in underwater defense systems [6].

Group 1: Economic Sanctions and Impact on Russia - The US and EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russian oil companies, targeting half of Russia's crude oil exports, and have banned liquefied natural gas imports from Russia [1] - The price cap on Russian oil is set at $47.6 per barrel, significantly reducing profit margins for Russian oil sales [1][6] - Russia's attempts to redirect energy exports to countries like India and China are hindered by a diversified global energy market, which cannot fully absorb the volumes previously exported to the West [6] Group 2: Military and Strategic Responses - Russia's military response includes nuclear drills and warnings against US arms supplies to Ukraine, indicating a show of nuclear deterrence [3][12] - The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is questioned, as both the US and Russia possess mutual assured destruction capabilities, limiting the likelihood of direct conflict [3] - Historical precedents suggest that major powers may avoid direct confrontation, opting instead for conventional or proxy warfare [3] Group 3: Future Scenarios and Political Dynamics - A potential ceasefire may emerge as Russia recognizes its inability to sustain a long-term economic and technological competition with the West [8] - The geopolitical landscape may shift, allowing Russia to balance relations with both the West and non-Western countries like China, depending on the evolving strategic needs of the US [8][12] - The ongoing sanctions highlight the importance of economic strength and technological independence for national security, as Russia's reliance on energy exports exposes its vulnerabilities [14]

Core Points - NATO is set to conduct its annual nuclear deterrence exercise "Steadfast Noon" in the Netherlands next week, involving 71 aircraft from 14 countries [1][3] - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that the exercise sends a clear signal to potential adversaries about the alliance's commitment to protect all allies against threats [3] - The exercise will simulate scenarios involving the potential use of nuclear weapons, although no actual nuclear weapons will be used [3] Summary by Categories - **Exercise Details** - The exercise "Steadfast Noon" will take place in the Netherlands with participation from 14 countries and 71 aircraft [1][3] - Key bases involved include Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands, Kleine Brogel in Belgium, Lakenheath in the UK, and Skrydstrup in Denmark [3] - **Strategic Messaging** - Stoltenberg's video statement highlights the exercise as a demonstration of NATO's capability and readiness to defend its members [3] - The exercise is described as routine and not directed against any specific country [3]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the potential military intervention of Europe in Ukraine and the subsequent response from Russia, which could escalate tensions significantly [2][22] - Russia's "red line" is defined as foreign military intervention in Ukraine, particularly in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, due to historical fears and national security concerns [2][3] - The response from Russia would likely involve a multi-faceted approach, including conventional military strikes, nuclear deterrence, and asymmetric warfare tactics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Conventional military retaliation would target European troops and critical infrastructure in Ukraine, utilizing missiles and drones to disrupt European military operations [3][4] - Nuclear options would include tactical nuclear weapons for preemptive strikes and strategic nuclear weapons for deterrence, with a focus on maintaining a credible threat to NATO [4][5] - Asymmetric methods could involve energy weaponization, cyberattacks, and financial sanctions to destabilize Europe and create internal chaos [6][7][8] Group 3 - Three potential catastrophic scenarios could arise if Europe crosses the red line: limited conflict with nuclear threats, accidental escalation to full-scale war, and a non-conventional war impacting Europe's economy and infrastructure [9][10][12][15] - The consequences of European military involvement could lead to significant losses for European forces, economic turmoil, and heightened nuclear risks, making it a high-stakes gamble [16][18] - Historical precedents indicate that direct confrontations between Europe and Russia have historically resulted in severe consequences, suggesting that diplomatic solutions are preferable [18][21] Group 4 - The article advocates for diplomatic negotiations to de-escalate tensions, emphasizing the importance of dialogue over military confrontation [20][21] - It suggests that both Europe and Russia should prioritize peace and stability rather than engaging in a potentially destructive conflict [22]