1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past two weeks, the U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the curve showing differentiation. The short - and medium - term yields have increased, while the ultra - long - term yields have decreased. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January [2]. - Geopolitical and trade frictions have recently intensified. The sharp fluctuations of Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds due to fiscal concerns have become an amplifier for the repricing of global term premiums and are transmitted to the long - end of U.S. Treasuries through cross - market trading mechanisms. The narrative of "selling U.S. assets" has emerged periodically [2]. - In the long run, high debt and refinancing pressure are still the core constraints for U.S. Treasury fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis 3.1.1 U.S. Treasury Interest Rates - As of January 23, the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury has increased by 5bp in two weeks, reaching 4.24%. Compared with two weeks ago, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury has increased by 11bp, and the yield of the 30 - year U.S. Treasury has decreased by 3bp [3]. 3.1.2 U.S. Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance in early January has slightly increased. The issuance of 3 - year bonds is $57.54 billion, 10 - year bonds is $38.92 billion, and 30 - year bonds is $21.97 billion. The U.S. fiscal deficit in December has dropped to $144.75 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly increased to $1.67 trillion [3]. 3.1.3 Derivatives Market - The net short position of U.S. Treasury futures has slightly decreased. As of January 20, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have decreased to 5 million and 60 thousand contracts, indicating that the short - hedging demand in the interest rate market has begun to decline in the short term. The federal funds rate futures market has shifted from a net long to a net short position in the past two weeks, dropping to 98.2 thousand contracts [3]. 3.2 Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 3.2.1 Monetary Policy - The core features of the Fed's December meeting are a turning point in the policy framework and increased internal differences. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive time, in line with expectations, but the dot - plot maintains the guidance of only one interest rate cut next year, indicating that the pace of easing will significantly slow down. It has also announced the launch of monthly reserve management purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bills. Currently, the implied overnight interest rate shows that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January [4]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Policy - As of January 21, the balance of the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit has increased by $8.76 billion in two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has decreased by $491 million in two weeks, reflecting that the Treasury's bond issuance has absorbed funds, but the overall money market is still in an abundant state [4]. 3.2.3 Economic Situation - As of January 17, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.34 (compared with 1.88 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term strengthening of the economy on a month - on - month basis [4]. 3.3 Key Interpretations - In the past two weeks, trade and geopolitical frictions between the U.S. and Europe have ignited risk sentiment. The sharp decline of Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds due to fiscal concerns and weak auctions has become an amplifier for global interest rate repricing. Through relative value trading, duration hedging, and asset rebalancing mechanisms, the increase in Japanese ultra - long - term interest rates has been quickly transmitted to the long - end of U.S. Treasuries [9]. - Recently, the narrative of "selling U.S. assets" has emerged, putting pressure on the valuation of risk assets. The increase in the long - end interest rate of U.S. Treasuries has led to a decline in the credibility of U.S. dollar assets. Some European pension institutions have reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the market impact of this narrative. The increase in U.S. Treasury yields has directly raised the discount rate, suppressing the valuation of stocks and credit assets, while safe - haven assets such as gold have benefited [9]. - In the long run, the root cause of this round of fluctuations lies in the structural problems of the high U.S. debt scale and rising refinancing pressure. Any external shock or liquidity disturbance may be magnified into a concentrated re - evaluation of the term premium, and the volatility center of U.S. Treasuries may rise periodically [10].