2025 年 11 月 14 日（美东时间），美股上演 "V 型" 反转戏码 —— 早盘三大股指集体下挫超 1%，芝加哥期权交 易所恐慌指数（VIX）一度跳涨超 15%，市场避险情绪升温；午后资金逐步回流，纳指率先翻红并终结三连阴， 最终道指微跌 0.65%、标普 500 指数微跌 0.05%、纳指微涨 0.13%，全周来看标普 500 与道指分别守住 0.1%、 0.3% 的涨幅，纳指则累计下跌 0.5%。这场震荡背后，是美联储降息预期降温、美债收益率上行与英伟达财报前 的市场焦虑相互交织，折射出当前全球资本对 "高利率维持时长" 与 "AI 产业韧性" 的深度博弈。 当日行情的转折点，集中在科技板块的结构性分化。早盘受 "美联储 12 月降息概率跌破 50%" 消息冲击，高估值 科技股集体承压，苹果、谷歌一度分别下跌 1.2%、1.8%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数同步下探 2.3%；但午后资金开 始流向 "确定性更强" 的科技细分领域，人工智能芯片板块成为反弹主力 —— 美光科技凭借摩根士丹利的目标价 上调（从 220 美元至 325 美元），全天收涨 4.2%，带动西部数据等存储芯片股跟涨；英伟达、甲骨文也扭 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strong employment data has led to a significant shift in market expectations, resulting in a large-scale unwinding of long positions in U.S. Treasury futures, which in turn has driven yields higher [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the release of robust non-farm payroll data, traders sold approximately $7 billion in 10-year Treasuries, leading to a sharp decline in open positions [1][2]. - The strong employment figures have caused market participants to reduce their expectations for a rate cut in July to zero, prompting a sell-off in bonds [1][2]. Group 2: Auction Pressure - Upcoming auctions of $39 billion in 10-year Treasuries and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries are expected to further pressure long positions, especially if demand appears weak [1][3]. - A recent auction of $58 billion in 3-year Treasuries showed solid results, providing some support for subsequent auctions [3]. Group 3: Positioning and Sentiment - Asset managers aggressively increased their long positions in Treasury futures before the employment report, with net long positions in 5-year and 10-year contracts reaching record highs [3]. - Following the employment data, traders are seeking both upside and downside protection, indicating increased uncertainty regarding interest rate prospects [3].

Group 1 - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in international oil prices and increased concerns about inflation in the U.S. [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.55 basis points to 4.45%, and the 2-year yield rising by 2.10 basis points to 3.97% [1] - Analysts predict that the pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasuries may continue due to the ongoing conflict, similar to past instances where yields spiked during periods of heightened tensions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $13 billion in 20-year bonds showed strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.68, the highest since March [2] - The indirect bid ratio, indicating foreign demand, was 66.7%, slightly lower than previous levels, while direct bids from domestic investors increased to 19.9% [2] - Concerns are growing regarding foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries as global investors seek to reduce exposure to U.S. assets [2] Group 3 - Central banks have been selling U.S. Treasuries since March, with a reported average reduction of $17 billion in holdings as of June 11, totaling a decline of $48 billion since late March [3] - Foreign holdings in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion since late March [3]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns and putting pressure on the US and European bond markets [1][8] - The US 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.96%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.43%, underperforming compared to German bonds [2][5] - The yield curve for US Treasuries has steepened, indicating market expectations of higher future inflation and interest rates, with the 2-year yield increasing by 8 basis points since last Thursday, lower than the increase in the 10-year yield [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the US Treasury yield curve may continue to steepen due to increased geopolitical uncertainty, which could raise future military spending and make inflation more persistent if oil prices remain high [6][8] - Since the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, the benchmark US Treasury yield has risen by 9 basis points, reflecting historical patterns where similar conflicts have led to increased yields [7] - Investors are facing dual risks: inflation concerns stemming from trade tensions and worsening US debt issues, which may require higher risk premiums for holding US Treasuries, leading to sustained upward pressure on yields [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]