新华财经北京12月30日电 2025年倒数第二个交易日的周二（30日），10年期美债收益率小幅上行，因市场关注即将公布的美联储12月会 议纪要。 当天盘前，美债小幅波动，收益率多数上行。截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率涨0.2BP至3.467%，10年期美债收益率涨2.3BPs至 4.139%，30年期美债收益率涨2.2BPs至4.825%。 投资者期待美联储即将公布的12月9-10日会议纪要，该份报告将于美国东部时间下午2点公布。美联储将会详细说明本月批准降息25BPs 的决定。 美联储官员认为，今年的三次降息使美联储更接近既不抑制也不提振需求的水平。官员们在通胀走高还是经济走弱是未来更大的风险这 一问题上显然存在分歧。因此，他们认为中性水平是观望经济如何发展的好时机。 蒙特利尔银行资本市场固定收益策略团队美国利率策略主管伊恩·林根表示："我们的基本假设是，FOMC将在1月29日的决定中保持尽可 能多的灵活性——这一立场在2025年一直是一致的，我们预计将延续到新的一年。" 欧洲市场方面，欧债收益率周二几乎全线上行，其中10年期德债收益率涨2.7BPs至2.853%，10年期意债收益率涨3BPs至3.4 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a "V-shaped" reversal on November 14, 2025, with major indices initially dropping over 1% before recovering in the afternoon, reflecting a complex interplay of factors including cooling interest rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones managed to maintain slight weekly gains of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a cumulative decline of 0.5% for the week [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed structural differentiation, with high-valuation tech stocks like Apple and Google facing pressure due to the news that the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve fell below 50% [2] - Afternoon trading saw a shift towards more "certain" tech sub-sectors, particularly AI chip stocks, with Micron Technology rising 4.2% following a target price upgrade from Morgan Stanley [2] - Institutional investors demonstrated clear "reallocation actions," with a net inflow of $1.2 billion into tech ETFs (XLK) in the afternoon, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities saw outflows [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The core issue driving market volatility is the "repricing" of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 67% to below 50% [2][4] - Key Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation, indicating that without compelling evidence of a significant decline in inflation or a cooling labor market, a rate cut is unlikely [2] AI Sector Focus - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report on November 19 is viewed as a critical test for the AI sector, with expectations that strong performance could bolster market confidence in AI growth [5] - Major investment firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain "overweight" ratings on Nvidia, citing its dominant market share in AI chips (over 80%) and robust demand for computing power [5] Commodity Market Dynamics - The global commodities market displayed contrasting trends, with gold prices experiencing significant volatility, dropping nearly 4% before closing down 2.37% due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [6] - Conversely, oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude rising 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, supported by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [7] Future Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain in a "range-bound" state due to ongoing "policy uncertainty" and the need to validate industry resilience [8] - Key upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting, Nvidia's earnings report, and delayed U.S. economic data releases, will significantly influence market sentiment [8]

Core Viewpoint - Strong employment data has led to a significant shift in market expectations, resulting in a large-scale unwinding of long positions in U.S. Treasury futures, which in turn has driven yields higher [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the release of robust non-farm payroll data, traders sold approximately $7 billion in 10-year Treasuries, leading to a sharp decline in open positions [1][2]. - The strong employment figures have caused market participants to reduce their expectations for a rate cut in July to zero, prompting a sell-off in bonds [1][2]. Group 2: Auction Pressure - Upcoming auctions of $39 billion in 10-year Treasuries and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries are expected to further pressure long positions, especially if demand appears weak [1][3]. - A recent auction of $58 billion in 3-year Treasuries showed solid results, providing some support for subsequent auctions [3]. Group 3: Positioning and Sentiment - Asset managers aggressively increased their long positions in Treasury futures before the employment report, with net long positions in 5-year and 10-year contracts reaching record highs [3]. - Following the employment data, traders are seeking both upside and downside protection, indicating increased uncertainty regarding interest rate prospects [3].

Group 1 - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in international oil prices and increased concerns about inflation in the U.S. [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.55 basis points to 4.45%, and the 2-year yield rising by 2.10 basis points to 3.97% [1] - Analysts predict that the pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasuries may continue due to the ongoing conflict, similar to past instances where yields spiked during periods of heightened tensions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $13 billion in 20-year bonds showed strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.68, the highest since March [2] - The indirect bid ratio, indicating foreign demand, was 66.7%, slightly lower than previous levels, while direct bids from domestic investors increased to 19.9% [2] - Concerns are growing regarding foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries as global investors seek to reduce exposure to U.S. assets [2] Group 3 - Central banks have been selling U.S. Treasuries since March, with a reported average reduction of $17 billion in holdings as of June 11, totaling a decline of $48 billion since late March [3] - Foreign holdings in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion since late March [3]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns and putting pressure on the US and European bond markets [1][8] - The US 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.96%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.43%, underperforming compared to German bonds [2][5] - The yield curve for US Treasuries has steepened, indicating market expectations of higher future inflation and interest rates, with the 2-year yield increasing by 8 basis points since last Thursday, lower than the increase in the 10-year yield [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the US Treasury yield curve may continue to steepen due to increased geopolitical uncertainty, which could raise future military spending and make inflation more persistent if oil prices remain high [6][8] - Since the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, the benchmark US Treasury yield has risen by 9 basis points, reflecting historical patterns where similar conflicts have led to increased yields [7] - Investors are facing dual risks: inflation concerns stemming from trade tensions and worsening US debt issues, which may require higher risk premiums for holding US Treasuries, leading to sustained upward pressure on yields [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]