Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term soybean meal futures will continue to be driven by three core factors: the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the shipping rhythm of South American soybeans. There is short - term support at the 3000 yuan/ton mark, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation risks caused by repeated geopolitical events and trade expectations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Futures Market - Contract Market On March 17, the opening price of the DCE soybean meal main contract (M.DCE) was 3055 yuan/ton, the intraday high was 3088 yuan/ton, the low was 3001 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3070 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1803668 lots, and the turnover was 54.911 billion yuan [2]. 2.1 Influencing Factors - **External Market Linkage**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, CBOT soybeans have risen for six consecutive weeks. As of the week of March 13, the CBOT soybean meal benchmark contract rose 1.73%. On March 17, affected by the news that the Sino - US leaders' meeting might be postponed, CBOT soybeans limit - down the previous trading day and rebounded 0.65% in the Asian session on the same day [5][6]. - **Supply Side**: The soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 50.6%, 10.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's strengthened quarantine has led to a sharp drop in Brazil's soybean exports to China. This week, Brazil's soybean trading volume was only 1.5 million tons, a significant decrease from 6 million tons last week, and 20 shipping vessels were blocked [6]. - **Import Cost**: On March 17, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 4145.85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4.6%; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3653.09 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 5.35%. Geopolitical conflicts have caused the shipping freight to rise by more than 250% at most [6]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of domestic oil mills is 51.83%. Last week, the soybean crushing volume was 1.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,000 tons. Downstream feed enterprises purchase on - demand and have limited acceptance of high prices [6]. 3.1 Market Outlook Short - term soybean meal futures will be driven by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the shipping rhythm of South American soybeans. There is short - term support at the 3000 yuan/ton mark, and attention should be paid to price fluctuation risks [7].