Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [12][13]. Core Views - The report highlights a strengthening in aluminum prices, driven by favorable macroeconomic signals and supply disruptions, suggesting a potential valuation recovery for aluminum companies [1][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is seen as supportive for copper and aluminum prices, with expectations of price increases due to positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations [12][6]. - The report emphasizes that gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [12][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a weekly increase of 0.64%, with aluminum leading among sub-sectors with a 3.84% rise [22][18]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's October imports grew by 1% year-on-year, while exports fell by 1.1% [28]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [28]. Precious Metals Market Data - The report notes that gold prices are supported by a high probability of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold trading at $3994.10 per ounce [4][5]. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices are under pressure, with LME copper closing at $10,744 per ton, down 1.57% from the previous week [6]. - Aluminum prices in China are reported at 21,580 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report recommends specific stocks within the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, highlighting companies such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum as key investment opportunities [12][13]. Key Recommended Stocks - For the gold sector, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold. In the copper sector, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted. For aluminum, companies like Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum are recommended [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Soybean meal, Paper pulp - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, PG, Container shipping European line Core Views - Short - term, market sentiment may shift from optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillating phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. - Copper price is expected to have limited downside, while aluminum price oscillates, and alumina has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - Zinc price is expected to stay high, but chasing high should be cautious; nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and have different trends [1]. - Tin has long - term buying opportunities at low prices; polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and other commodities have their own oscillating or directional trends based on supply - demand and macro factors [1]. - Some agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. face bearish factors, while others like sugar and cotton have complex supply - demand situations [1]. - Energy - chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and cost, showing various trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Short - term, with the release of positive factors, the stock index may oscillate to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, and there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. Treasury Bond - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. Gold - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. Copper - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and copper price may decline, but the downside is limited [1]. Aluminum - Recent industrial drivers are limited, and with the digestion of macro - positives, aluminum price oscillates [1]. Alumina - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. Zinc - Market risk aversion rises, LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and zinc price is strong, but domestic over - supply requires caution when chasing high [1]. Nickel - Short - term, nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate weakly, with high inventory pressure; long - term, primary nickel over - supply persists [1]. Stainless Steel - Macro sentiment weakens, and stainless - steel futures are under pressure; short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedges at high prices should be noted [1]. Tin - Long - term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices due to the unrepaired raw - material end and good new - quality demand expectations [1]. Polysilicon - Northwest production capacity is recovering, production in November is decreasing, and there are expectations of capacity reduction and increased terminal installation [1]. Lithium Carbonate - There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Near - month production is restricted, and far - month has upward potential [1]. Manganese Silicon - Direct demand is good, but high supply and inventory pressure limit price rebound [1]. Soda Ash - It follows glass, but supply - demand is average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is testing support, and coke has a complex situation; short - term, single - side operations should be observed, and long - term, low - buying is recommended [1]. Palm Oil - Short - term, it faces seasonal production increase and weak exports; from November, there may be a phased rebound if exports improve [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations and Canadian harvest put pressure on the price [1]. Cotton - Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit; the downside is limited, but new - crop base and price may be under pressure [1]. Sugar - Short - term, there is seasonal upward momentum, but new - sugar listing may limit the rebound space [1]. Corn - Futures and spot face selling pressure, and the price may oscillate and bottom out [1]. Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean purchase and processing profit is poor, and the price may rebound to repair the profit, but supply expectations limit the rebound height [1]. Paper Pulp - The 11 - contract has pressure, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. Log - The fundamental situation has declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Live Pig - Short - term, futures follow the spot and turn weak [1]. Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production slightly, geopolitical hype cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. Asphalt - Short - term supply - demand is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" demand may be false; supply is sufficient, and profit is high [1]. Natural Rubber - Supported by raw - material cost, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the market atmosphere is positive [1]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost support weakens, supply is loose, and the price is adjusted downwards [1]. PTA and Short - fiber - The "anti - involution" policy drives the price up, and short - fiber follows the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - It follows the decline of crude oil, but cost support strengthens, and polyester demand is stable [1]. Styrene - Asian benzene price is weak, and styrene profit declines, with more device overhauls [1]. Urea - Export is weak, and there is cost support [1]. PE and PP - Supply pressure is high, and downstream improvement is less than expected [1]. PVC - Supply pressure is large, and cost support strengthens [1]. Caustic Soda - Production plans increase, over - concentration of overhauls decreases, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. PG - International oil and gas supply is loose, and domestic spot is stable [1]. Container Shipping European Line - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and November's shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations and better - than - expected third - quarter report results are gradually released, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillation phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1] Summary by Industry Category Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Metals Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short term and gradually stabilize, and silver prices may also maintain an oscillation [1] Base Metals - Copper prices have corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited; aluminum prices are oscillating; alumina has weak fundamentals and downward pressure on spot prices; zinc is expected to maintain high - level oscillation; nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - side conditions, with nickel having high - inventory pressure; tin has long - term low - buying opportunities; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating, with lithium carbonate facing potential upward pressure after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] Ferrous Metals - Steel products such as rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, and white silicon are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as production restrictions, cost support, and supply - demand relationships; glass prices are oscillating, and the upward resistance is relatively large; the upward breakthrough of coking coal futures is uncertain, and coke can consider selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil may have a phased rebound; soybean oil has limited rebound momentum; rapeseed oil is under pressure; cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the new - crop basis and futures prices may be under pressure; sugar prices have seasonal strength in the short term but limited rebound space in the medium term; soybean meal has limited rebound height; pulp is recommended for 11 - 1 reverse spreads; log is recommended for observation; live pig futures may turn weak following the spot [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships; natural rubber is bullish, while BR rubber is under pressure; PTA prices are rising, and short - fiber prices follow the cost; benzene - related products are affected by factors such as weak prices and reduced device operating rates; urea, methanol, PVC, and caustic soda are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as supply pressure and cost support; LPG's domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - The shipping industry in November has relatively loose transport capacity supply and is in an oscillating state [1]

Group 1: Financial Instrument Prices and Changes - DROO1 closed at 1.31, down 0.53bp; DR007 closed at 1.42, down 3.65bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.54, up 21.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.49, up 1.00bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.33, up 1.20bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53, up 0.10bp [3] - 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.74, down 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.09, down 0.20bp [3] - IF当月 closed at 4646, up 0.1%; IH当月 closed at 3018, unchanged; IC当月 closed at 7293, unchanged; IM当月 closed at 7471, up 0.4% [5] - IF成交量 was 115046, down 17.7%; IF持仓量 was 270097, down 0.4% [5] - IH成交量 was 51158, down 19.2%; IH持仓量 was 96979, down 2.6% [5] - IC成交量 was 140206, down 3.5%; IC持仓量 was 254358, unchanged [5] - IM成交量 was 229133, down 9.5%; IM持仓量 was 362939, up 0.2% [5] Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3373 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [3] - This week, 20680 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 3373 billion, 4753 billion, 5577 billion, 3426 billion, and 3551 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 0.27% to 4653.4; the SSE 50 rose 0.16% to 3016.4; the CSI 500 rose 0.04% to 7333.6; the CSI 1000 rose 0.42% to 7538.1 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 21071 billion yuan, a decrease of 2107 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with shipbuilding, gaming, culture and media, coal, photovoltaic equipment, power supply equipment, petroleum, mining, and airport sectors leading the gains, while small metals, batteries, and jewelry sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, as positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations are gradually released, market sentiment may shift from relatively optimistic to cautious, and the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. In the medium - to - long term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid [6] - The strategy suggests taking advantage of opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantages of medium - to - long - term long - position strategies [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF升贴水 was 3.14% for the current - month contract, 3.17% for the next - month contract, 2.48% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.71% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IH升贴水 was - 0.84% for the current - month contract, - 0.07% for the next - month contract, - 0.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.12% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IC升贴水 was 11.28% for the current - month contract, 10.17% for the next - month contract, 9.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.43% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IM升贴水 was 17.95% for the current - month contract, 14.75% for the next - month contract, 12.20% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.67% for the next - quarter contract [7]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold, silver, and copper prices have experienced a decline, with various related products also retreating, indicating a bearish trend in the precious and industrial metals market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:40, the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 3.06%, with major holdings like Guocheng Mining down by 8.92% and Shengxin Lithium Energy down by 7.61% [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 3.44%, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a smaller decline of 0.75% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent statements from several Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts have created uncertainty about a potential rate cut in December, with inflation data remaining a focal point for many officials [1] - Economic and liquidity expectations are anticipated to improve marginally, potentially supporting the prices of cyclical commodities like copper and aluminum through Q4 2025 [1] Group 3: ETF Focus - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and energy metals like lithium and cobalt [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, soybeans defied the pattern of being more likely to fall than rise, with the futures main contract 01 rising over 5% and spot prices increasing to varying degrees. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the market fundamentals have shifted, with new - season soybeans potentially ending the bottom - probing process and later showing a bottom - confirmation and oscillating upward trend [1]. - In the long run, domestic soybean prices may break out of the bottom - range oscillation, and the annual price center of gravity may shift upward significantly [6]. - The supply of medium - and high - protein soybeans will decline, and the rigid edible consumption is expected to continuously support the prices of relevant soybean sources, with the feature of high - quality at high - price persisting until the next supply season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Multiple factors such as the sellers' price - holding, southern产区's reduced production, and rigid repayment demand led to the anti - seasonal rise of soybeans in October. The increased acquisition of Northeast soybeans due to southern产区's reduced production was the core driving force [1]. - In the short term, beware of the risk of selling pressure emerging due to price stagnation, especially near the end of the year. The resumption of US soybean imports will suppress the sentiment of soybean price increases, especially for medium - and low - protein soybeans [5]. - The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, and the import soybean gap and arrival volume at the end of the fourth quarter and early next year will have a key impact on the consumption of domestic medium - and low - protein soybeans [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish trend; **Technical View**: Pay attention to short - term pull - back confirmation and focus on the 20 - day moving average support; **Strategy View**: Overall, wait and see, wait for the pull - back confirmation, and pay attention to low - price inventory hedging at high prices in the short term [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: The weekly spot - futures market prices stagnated, and the basis of 39 - protein soybeans was neutral. It is recommended to wait and see. **Spread Strategy**: The difference between near - and far - month contracts changed insignificantly. Consider selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [6]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Hold short - term hedging for contract 01 above 4100; Wait for the price to fall before making forward purchases [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast for Contract 01**: 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.36% and a historical percentile of 25.9% [6]. - **Risk Strategy**: For inventory management of growers, when the selling pressure is high, short - sell soybean futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio above 4100; sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter before making forward purchases [6]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The spot market sentiment was stable, and prices remained high but stagnated. There were no auction arrangements this week [8]. - **Negative Information**: The transaction volume of state - reserve auctions was limited, and the market demand focused on high - protein soybeans. The resumption of US soybean imports due to Sino - US negotiations will be negative for domestic medium - and low - protein soybean prices [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The import rhythm of US soybeans will become clearer. Observe whether selling pressure emerges actively after the spot price stagnates [7][9]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the last week of October, soybean prices stagnated at a high level, with a weekly decline of - 0.05%, forming a doji candlestick. Trading volume and open interest remained high, and the registered warehouse receipts were 7238 lots [9]. - **Basis Structure**: During the week, the spot - futures prices of domestic soybeans consolidated at a high level after a rebound, and the basis changed little. **Spread Structure**: Contract 11 was weak, while contract 01 was strong, and the overall spread change was insignificant [17][19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the price of 39 - protein clean grains oscillated at 2 yuan per catty, and the planting profit increased significantly compared to the previous year. Mid - stream trading enterprises' willingness to store grains increased, but the profit of building warehouses and storing grains was uncertain. Down - stream demand was active, high - protein soybeans were in short supply, and prices were firm. The crushing profit changed slightly, and oil mills' acquisition was at a moderate level [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans in the new season will decrease due to the increase in high - oil soybean area in the Northeast and the reduced production in the South. It will take about 10 months until the next effective supply, and the supply of high - protein soybeans will gradually tighten. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the change in oil mills' acquisition intensity caused by soybean meal price fluctuations [33][34]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - In the last week of October, the edible consumption market of domestic soybeans turned from off - season to peak season, with demand mainly for high - protein soybeans. Near the end of the year, downstream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the prices of high - quality soybeans. The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the performance of soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Pay attention to the arrival quantity in December and soybean meal prices to see if the crushing demand can have a phased increase similar to last year [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with the gradual release of positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment may shift from relatively optimistic to cautious. The stock index may enter a volatile phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index. In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. It is recommended to choose the right time to go long and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs Interest Rate Products - DROO1 closed at 0.69 with a change of 1.32bp; DR007 closed at 1.46 with a change of - 4.67bp; GC001 closed at 1.32 with a change of 9.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.48 with a change of - 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a change of - 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.38 with a change of 0.01bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.57 with a change of 0.26bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79 with a change of - 1.84bp; 10 - year US treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.11 [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market. There were 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 500 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 700 billion yuan in MLF maturities. So, the net injection in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, there will be 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 337.3 billion, 475.3 billion, 557.7 billion, 342.6 billion, and 355.1 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 700 billion yuan in 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Index Futures - The closing prices and changes compared to the previous day of major stock indices: CSI 300 closed at 4641, down 1.47%; SSE 50 closed at 3012, down 1.15%; CSI 500 closed at 7331, down 0.74%; CSI 1000 closed at 7507, up 0.29%. The closing prices and changes of corresponding stock index futures: IF current - month contract closed at 4641, down 1.3%; IH current - month contract closed at 3017, down 1.0%; IC current - month contract closed at 7291, down 0.8%; IM current - month contract closed at 7440, unchanged [6] - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 139,862, up 1.8%; IF position was 271,131, up 0.1%; IH trading volume was 63,349, down 0.9%; IH position was 99,608, down 2.4%; IC trading volume was 145,316, down 13.7%; IC position was 254,465, down 2.2%; IM trading volume was 253,282, up 1.9%; IM position was 362,383, down 1.8% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.43% to 4640.7; SSE 50 fell 1.12% to 3011.6; CSI 500 rose 1% to 7331; CSI 1000 rose 1.18% to 7506.7. Among Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (4.3%), non - ferrous metals (2.6%), steel (2.6%), basic chemicals (2.5%), and comprehensive (2.3%) led the gains, while communication (- 3.6%), banking (- 2.2%), electronics (- 1.7%), building decoration (- 1.5%), and real estate (- 0.7%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 2.0894 trillion, 1.9329 trillion, 2.0592 trillion, 2.2042 trillion, and 2.0923 trillion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume increased by 462.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts was - 0.14%, 1.55%, 1.82%, and 2.30% respectively; the basis of IH was - 3.35%, - 0.94%, - 0.39%, and - 0.22% respectively; the basis of IC was 10.43%, 9.39%, 8.88%, and 9.22% respectively; the basis of IM was 17.17%, 14.33%, 12.04%, and 11.61% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillatory phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Under the background of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. - For bonds, the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The precious metals (gold and silver) are under short - term pressure due to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, but factors such as the decline in market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown still support their prices, and they are expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are all expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors such as macro - environment, production, and supply - demand conditions [1]. - For black metals, the prices of steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil) and related products (such as iron ore, glass, and soda ash) also show oscillatory trends, affected by factors like production, inventory, and macro - sentiment [1]. - For agricultural products, the prices of palm oil, soybean, cotton, sugar, and other products have different trends, influenced by factors such as production, demand, and seasonal factors [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, rubber, and chemical fibers have different price trends, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand relationship [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillatory, with support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Short - term oscillatory, pressured by hawkish Fed remarks but supported by other factors [1]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Price回调, but limited downward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillatory due to limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits [1]. - **Alumina**: Fundamentally weak, with increasing production and inventory, and the cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level oscillatory, affected by macro - sentiment and market conditions [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated oscillatory, with high - inventory pressure, and long - term surplus pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillatory, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Medium - and long - term, attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities [1]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month with upward opportunities, but overall pressured by supply and inventory [1]. - **Glass**: Price downward space is limited in the short - term, and price fluctuations are strengthened [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Bullish, but the breakthrough is uncertain [1]. - **Coke**: Industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the disk rises [1]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Currently pressured by high inventory, waiting for the production - reduction and inventory - removal cycle [1]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean has low valuation, and the disk is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the rebound height is limited [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the disk is under pressure but with limited downward space [1]. - **Sugar**: Seasonally strong in the short - term, but limited rebound space after the new sugar is on the market [1]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, and the short - term geopolitical speculation cools down [1]. - **Rubber (Natural and Synthetic)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as cost, supply, and market atmosphere [1]. - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA price is affected by "anti - involution" policy and device conditions, and short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by factors such as crude oil and coal prices, and polyester demand [1]. - **Benzene and Related Products**: Affected by factors such as benzene price, device operation, and profit [1]. - **Plastics (PE, PP, PVC)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as maintenance, supply, and demand [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Affected by factors such as production plans, inventory, and international market conditions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Cross - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - **Feed End**: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: With the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report performance, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter a shock phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. In the context of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index. - Medium - to long - term: The stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. It is recommended to choose the opportunity to go long and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of medium - to long - term long strategies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a - 9.30bp change; DR007 at 1.50 with a - 4.34bp change; GC001 at 1.23 with a - 33.00bp change; GC007 at 1.50 with a - 8.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a - 0.20bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.38 with a - 0.94bp change; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.56 with a - 1.41bp change; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.50bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond at 3.97 with a - 1.70bp change [4] - **Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan. The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations [4] Stock Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.8% to 4709.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.54% to 3046.6; the CSI 500 fell 1.27% to 7385.7; the CSI 1000 fell 1.11% to 7485.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4217 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the energy metals sector rising sharply, and the steel and battery sectors leading the gains. The game, power equipment, electronic chemicals, coal, securities, pesticide and veterinary medicine, and electronic components sectors led the losses [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For stock index futures, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) had a trading volume increase of 36.1% and an open - interest increase of 4.7%; the SSE 50 index futures (IH) had a trading volume increase of 41.8% and an open - interest increase of 7.4%; the CSI 500 index futures (IC) had a trading volume increase of 24.9% and an open - interest increase of 2.9%; the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) had a trading volume increase of 32.5% and an open - interest increase of 5.8% [5] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.00%, 3.09%, 2.63%, and 2.87% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.01%, 0.39%, - 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 7.75%, 8.57%, 8.68%, and 9.13% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.35%, 11.77%, 11.35%, and 11.25% respectively [7]