1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty and consistent expectations in the macro - environment remain weak, and market sentiment is easily swayed by changes in interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market at any time, with the long and short sentiments expected to switch back and forth, and the macro - impact volatility remaining large. On the fundamental side, the supply is basically stable, the consumption end is at the transition point between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [3][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased by 12.0 yuan/ton from 2615 on August 8, 2025, to 2603 on August 15, 2025. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased by 95.0 dollars/ton from 20610 to 20705 during the same period. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio rose by 0.1 to 8.0. The LME spot premium increased by 4.1 dollars/ton to 1.79. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 8975.0 tons to 479550 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 21592.0 tons. The spot average price rose by 104.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 50.0 yuan/ton. The South Reserve spot average price increased by 56.0 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased by 48.0 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 5.8 yuan/ton, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 109.8 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20694 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the South Reserve spot weekly average price was 20652 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the Sino - US trade negotiation made progress, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut first increased and then decreased. In China, the social financing scale and RMB loans increased in the first seven months of this year. The growth rate of industrial added value in July was 5.7%, and the service industry production index was 5.8%. The consumption and investment growth rates on the demand side declined. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July was 3.7%. The export year - on - year growth rate was 7.2%. On the consumption side, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In terms of inventory, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 58.8 tons, up 2.4 tons from last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 13.85 tons, down 0.5 tons from last Thursday [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - environment has high uncertainty, and market sentiment is easily affected by interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market. On the fundamental side, the supply is stable, the consumption end is at the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8] 3.4 Industry News - Century Aluminum will restart about 57,000 tons of idle capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, with an investment of about 50 million dollars, aiming to increase the local aluminum production in the US by nearly 10%. The plant is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026, with an annual primary aluminum output of about 730,000 tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. will transfer 580,000 tons of production capacity to Xinjiang, with a planned production start in December 2027. Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant faces the risk of shutdown due to power issues, and the company is communicating to ensure power supply after March 2026 [9] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, spot premium seasonality, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonality, and aluminum rod inventory seasonality [10][11][14][15][16]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's willingness to visit China is contingent on reaching a favorable agreement, indicating a fluctuating stance on U.S.-China relations [1][3] - Ongoing trade negotiations have seen three rounds of discussions, with persistent disagreements on issues like agricultural procurement and market access [3] - The U.S. has tightened export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China, raising questions about the sincerity of U.S. negotiations [3] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on approximately $120 billion worth of Chinese imports, with rates as high as 250% on certain products like chips and pharmaceuticals [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector is a key target, as 35% of U.S. prescription drug imports come from China, and high tariffs could significantly increase costs [4] - The unilateral imposition of tariffs contradicts existing agreements, such as the U.S.-EU Digital Products Tariff Reduction Agreement, which includes many of the products targeted by Trump's tariffs [7] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Concerns over U.S. trade policy uncertainty have risen, with the EU Trade Representative's office expressing dissatisfaction and indicating a reevaluation of trade agreements with the U.S. [7] - Japanese companies are advised to reduce reliance on U.S. supply chains, while South Korean firms like Samsung are shifting production back to Korea due to tariff concerns [7] - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs have led to a significant decrease in imports from the U.S. and an increase in exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries, showcasing a successful diversification strategy [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Logs: ★☆★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Overall, for most commodities, the current advice is to take a wait - and - see approach due to various factors such as uncertain supply and demand, and unclear market trends. Only for logs, a bullish investment strategy is recommended [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable, and some high - basis prices still being adjusted downwards. The trading atmosphere in the cotton yarn market was average [2]. - After consecutive declines, cotton prices have stabilized. Low inventory supports prices, but weak downstream orders drag them down. In July, the inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure [2]. - Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations may remain unchanged in the short term. There are strong expectations of increased production in Xinjiang in the new year, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2]. - Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see, and maintain a positive spread trading strategy for the 9 - 11 spread [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Although the production progress accelerated in July due to less rainfall, the overall progress was still slow, and some international institutions lowered the annual production forecast [3]. - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the medium - term forecast indicates that rainfall may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season [3]. - Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rose. As the production season nears the end, the remaining inventory in cold storage is small, and traders are actively selling at weak prices. The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, and prices dropped after an initial high [4]. - Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples was average, and the quantity of high - quality products was small. As of August 7, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 512,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.1%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 64,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.87% [4]. - The market's focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the yield forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR declined slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price continued to fall, while the synthetic rubber spot price was generally stable. The Asian price of butadiene at foreign ports was stable, and European prices varied. The prices in the Thai raw material market fluctuated [6]. - In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased slightly [6]. - In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants declined slowly this week, the end - market demand was still weak, tire companies' sales were poor, and the inventory of semi - steel tires increased while that of all - steel tires decreased [6]. - In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 631,800 tons this week, and both the bonded and general trade inventories decreased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,700 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased to 14,700 tons [6]. - Overall, demand is slowly weakening, natural rubber supply is increasing, synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, rubber inventory is falling, and market sentiment is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures slightly declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,180 yuan/ton; and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7]. - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. In July, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 557,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 153,000 tons [7]. - Currently, domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as the peak season approaches. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The spot price in Rizhao increased by 10 yuan [8]. - In terms of supply, it is still the off - season for New Zealand log shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous logs remains low. Although the foreign price has risen for two consecutive months, domestic spot prices remain weak, and traders' pressure has increased, so it is expected that imports will not increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8]. - In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8]. - As of August 1, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory and small inventory pressure [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, log inventory will gradually decrease, and spot prices are expected to rebound in the short term, with futures prices likely to continue rising. A bullish investment strategy is recommended [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities facing various supply - demand and macro - economic situations. For most commodities, the current advice is to wait and see, except for timber which has a bullish outlook [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of inland warehouse cotton remained stable but with sluggish shipments. The cotton yarn market was generally quiet [2] - After continuous declines, cotton prices have stabilized. Low cotton inventories support prices, but weak downstream orders drag them down. The inventory digestion speed slowed in July, and processing profits are under pressure [2] - Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations may remain unchanged in the short term. There is a strong expectation of increased cotton production in Xinjiang in the new season, with more planting areas and favorable weather [2] - Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see. For spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy for the 9 - 11 contracts [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Due to less rainfall in July, the production progress accelerated, with increased cane crushing and sugar production year - on - year. However, due to previous heavy rainfall, the overall production progress is still slow, and some international institutions have lowered the annual production forecast [3] - In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. After entering July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, but the medium - term forecast from the European Meteorological Center suggests that rainfall may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season in Guangxi [3] - Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. As the production season nears its end, the remaining inventory in cold storage is low, and traders are eager to sell, leading to weak prices. The supply of early - maturing apples has increased, with prices starting high and then dropping [4] - Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples is average, and there is a shortage of high - quality products. As of August 1, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.2%. Last week, the de - stocking volume was 72,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.9% [4] - The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimates. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated strongly. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the overseas butadiene port price was stable. The prices in the Thai raw material market were mixed [6] - In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in the main Southeast Asian production areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased further, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants slightly decreased [6] - In terms of demand, last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires dropped significantly, and that of semi - steel tires continued to decline slightly, mainly due to plant maintenance or reduced production in some tire enterprises. Terminal market demand was weak, and tire inventories decreased [6] - In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 631,800 tons, and both bonded and general trade inventories declined. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 129,000 tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 147,000 tons [6] - In July, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5.9%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.8% [6] - Overall, downstream demand continues to weaken, rubber supply continues to increase, natural rubber inventories decline, and synthetic rubber inventories increase. Market sentiment remains stable. It is advisable to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian needles in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton; and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. In July, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 557,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 153,000 tons [7] - Currently, domestic port inventories are relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still weak. After entering August, the downstream may gradually enter the peak season, which may boost demand. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable [8] - In terms of supply, it is still the off - season for log shipments from New Zealand, and the arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs remains low. Although overseas prices have rebounded for two consecutive months, domestic spot prices are still weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8] - In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [8] - As of August 1, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory and less inventory pressure [8] - Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season approaches, logs will gradually be de - stocked, and short - term spot prices are expected to rebound, with futures prices likely to continue rising. It is advisable to maintain a bullish strategy [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have limited upside due to weakening US economic data and a tense raw material supply situation, with the Shanghai copper main contract expected to trade between 77,800 - 78,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,550 - 9,760 US dollars/ton [1] - Aluminum prices have rebounded significantly, but considering the off - season and export pressure, the upside space is limited. The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 20,900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,580 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [3] - Lead prices are expected to have limited upside as supply remains loose and domestic inventories are rising slowly [4] - Zinc prices are at a higher risk of decline as domestic industry data is weak and previous supporting factors have weakened [5] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the expectation of increased supply from Myanmar and weak demand [6] - Nickel prices are expected to have correction pressure despite a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be supported at the bottom, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed, and the 2509 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 67,200 - 70,800 yuan/ton [9][10] - Alumina is recommended to short at high levels as the over - capacity situation is difficult to change, and the domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12] - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [14] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to have limited upside as the off - season leads to weak supply and demand [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 0.41% to 9,674 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,360 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 2,275 tons to 156,125 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20,000 tons [1] - Price analysis: The weak US non - farm data increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the sentiment may not be optimistic after the tariff implementation. The raw material supply is tense, but the copper supply outside the US is expected to increase [1] Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum rose 2.2% to 2,621 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,770 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 to 468,000 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 43,000 tons [3] - Price analysis: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, which supports the price, but the off - season and export pressure limit the upside [3] Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.48% to 16,853 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 17.5 to 1,986.5 US dollars/ton [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory was 58,700 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,000 tons [4] - Price analysis: The supply of lead ore is tight, but the overall supply of lead ingots is loose, and the domestic inventory is slowly rising [4] Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,370 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2,770.5 US dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory was 14,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 92,300 tons [5] - Price analysis: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, production is rising, downstream consumption is weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [5] Tin - Market performance: On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266,940 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [6] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 75 tons to 7,358 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 1,755 tons [6] - Price analysis: The expectation of increased supply from Myanmar is strengthening, and short - term supply and demand are weak. The domestic tin price is expected to trade between 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [6] Nickel - Market performance: Nickel prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday [7] - Inventory: No significant inventory data provided - Price analysis: The short - term macro environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and the price has correction pressure [7] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.62% [9] - Inventory: No significant inventory data provided - Price analysis: The expectation of supply reduction supports the price, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the 2509 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 67,200 - 70,800 yuan/ton [9][10] Alumina - Market performance: On August 6, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.62% to 3,246 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 13,200 tons, remaining unchanged at a historical low [12] - Price analysis: The over - capacity situation is difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12] Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14] - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 0.66% [14] - Price analysis: The supply of 316L is tight, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [14] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose 0.35% to 20,075 yuan/ton [17] - Inventory: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased slightly [17] - Price analysis: The off - season leads to weak supply and demand, and the price upside is limited [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as tariff policies, market sentiment, and supply - demand relationships [1][3][5][7][8][10][12][14][17]. - For copper, the price increase is limited in the current off - season, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by relatively low domestic ingot inventories, but the rebound space is limited due to the off - season and export pressure [3]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly as the supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc has a high risk of price decline as the industry data is weak and the previous supporting factors are weakening [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and the upcoming resumption of production in Myanmar [6][7]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an over - capacity pattern, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12]. - Stainless steel prices may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited rebound space due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 0.66% to $9633/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78170 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons, with different changes in each exchange. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons [1]. - The spot import of copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic basis increased due to tight supply [1]. - The scrap - refined copper price difference was 800 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, while that of cable enterprises decreased [1]. - The expected trading range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9400 - 9900/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%, and LME aluminum fell 2.26% to $2571/ton [3]. - The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 76,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 49,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 544,000 tons, and bonded area inventory decreased to 108,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons [3]. - The spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the buyer sentiment was weak in the off - season [3]. - The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline, except for a slight improvement in aluminum rod [3]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $2.6/ton [3]. - The expected trading range for domestic SHFE aluminum this week is 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2520 - 2620/ton [3]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 16,736 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1966.5/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [4]. - SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,900 tons, and LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons [4]. - The supply of lead is expected to remain loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.15% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2749/ton [5]. - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 103,200 tons [5]. - Zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August [5]. - The downstream operating rate declined significantly, and the short - term consumption of zinc ingots weakened [5]. - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [5]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated downwards [6]. - The supply in Yunnan is currently short, and some smelters plan to stop for maintenance. The supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter [6]. - Domestic consumption is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and LME price range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, down 3.69% [8]. - The macro - environment and the overall over - supply situation of stainless steel and nickel iron put pressure on nickel prices [8]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for SHFE nickel of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel 3M of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, down 10.41% for the week [10]. - The price of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased [10]. - The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points [10]. - The expected trading range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on GZEE is 66,700 - 71,500 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On August 1, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.65% to 3153 yuan/ton [12]. - The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the import window was closed [12]. - The futures warehouse receipts remained at a historical low [12]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [14]. - The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged [14]. - The social inventory decreased slightly, but the 300 - series inventory increased [14]. - The stainless steel price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated downwards, with the AD2511 contract down 1.07% to 19,920 yuan/ton [17]. - The weighted contract position decreased, and the price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 contracts increased [17]. - The spot price decreased, and the downstream trading was light in the off - season [17]. - The production cost decreased, and the production volume increased slightly [17]. - The inventory increased, and the price rebound space is limited [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆★ [1] - Apple: Not rated - 20 - rubber: Not rated - Natural rubber: Not rated - Synthetic rubber: Not rated - Log: Not rated Core Views - The market sentiment of various soft commodities is generally weak, with most commodities showing downward trends or lack of clear upward momentum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for most commodities, while maintaining a bullish view on logs [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a slower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. - Warehouse receipts were digested slowly, and there were concerns about their quality. - The anti - involution trading cooled down, and the 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July was moderately bearish. - In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of the 25/26 sugar production in Guangxi. - US sugar is in a downward trend, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. - As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The weekly cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. - The market is focused on the new - season apple production estimate. There are still differences in the production forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - RU&MR continued to decline, and BR fluctuated weakly. International trade risks increased, and the sentiment in the rubber market weakened. - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. - The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased this week, but some plants will be under maintenance in early August. - The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. - Rubber inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. - Domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. - The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Log - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. - The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level, and the supply was low. - As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. - The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rise, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread dropping. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a new low in the past 20 years. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and downstream procurement was for rigid demand. It's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region, the expected sugarcane yield per hectare is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. However, most consulting companies believe the sugar production will exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the rubber market sentiment weakened. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, but some plants are planning to have maintenance in early August. The demand in the terminal market is average, and tire inventories are increasing. It's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The supply from New Zealand is low. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports increased by 2.72% week - on - week. The total log inventory at national ports decreased. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]