Report Overview - The report is the "Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report" dated January 26, 2026, focusing on the analysis of the meal and oil industries [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views Soybean Meal - Before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price of soybean meal faces upward pressure. The near - month contracts are supported by destocking expectations and cost, but the upward space is limited. The 03 contract is expected to be strong in a narrow range, while the 05 contract may be weak due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and loose domestic supply and demand [8]. Oils - Biodiesel and trade policies disrupt the oil market, leading to a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in imports after the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, while soybean and palm oils have upward momentum but are limited by factors such as the abandonment of the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia and the unchanged expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [76][77]. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of January 23, the spot price in East China was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The M2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The basis price was 05 + 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. US soybeans were oscillating strongly, and domestic soybean meal followed a low - level rebound. However, the good import crushing profit and loose supply and demand limited the upward space [8][10]. 2. Supply - The weather in South America is favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. From January to March in China, the arrival of soybeans will decrease, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal will gradually decline. However, from April to July, the arrival of soybeans will remain high, and the supply pressure will be large. The purchase progress of ships after March is slow, and the arrival from July to September may decrease slightly year - on - year [8]. 3. Demand - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - performance of soybean meal, supports the demand. In the third week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills decreased to 687.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.62% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline to 94.72 million tons, the lowest level in five months [8]. 4. Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. Oils 1. Market Review - As of the week of January 23, the palm oil 05 contract rose 236 yuan/ton to 8910 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 8094 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 72 yuan/ton to 8991 yuan/ton. The prices of spot palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils also changed accordingly, and the basis prices of the three oils all declined [77][78]. 2. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows that from January 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 8.64 - 11.4%. The market expects a turning point in Malaysian inventory in January. In China, the inventory continued to increase slightly to 74.61 million tons as of January 16 due to increased purchases before the Indonesian tax increase and weak winter demand [77]. 3. Soybean Oil - US soybeans have rebounded recently due to strong export and crushing demand. The market expects the US biodiesel quota to increase in 2026. Although the overall harvest forecast of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, the tight supply of soybeans from January to March in China may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of oil mills and support inventory destocking. As of January 16, the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 96.33 million tons [77]. 4. Rapeseed Oil - After the China - Canada negotiation, China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to increase imports. However, the current domestic supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. As of January 16, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remained at 27.6 million tons [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The logic of soybean shortage after the fourth quarter has been shaken due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and its by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, with orders for Argentine soybean meal starting in mid - to late August. The supply from September to November is sufficient, and the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentina's soybean procurement and policy continuity, as well as the progress of Sino - US negotiations [6]. - With the loosening of the previous soybean shortage logic, frequent consultations between China and the US, and high inventory in reality, soybean meal prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks. Potential positive factors such as the expected decline in US soybean yield and dry weather in Brazil are unlikely to be reflected in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all declined. The decline rates of 2601, 2509, and 2511 were - 3.37%, - 1.73%, and - 3.66% respectively. The trading volume of 2601 was 2372830, and the trading volume of 2511 was 167642 [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal, reducing the previous 26% soybean export tax and 24.5% soybean oil and soybean meal export taxes to 0. After the tax reduction, Argentina's soybean CIF price to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US [6]. 2. Industry News - On Monday, the Argentine government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The measure will last until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches $7 billion [7]. 3. Data Overview - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week of September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the previous week was 63%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%. The defoliation rate was 61% [15]. - **Rosario Grain Exchange**: Argentina's grain and by - product exports in the 2025/26 season may reach a record 105.1 million tons, with grain and oilseed shipments expected to be 64.7 million tons (62% being corn), and oil and oilmeal exports estimated at 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is experiencing significant gains, with soybean meal futures showing a price increase of approximately 3.06%, reaching a high of 3190.00 CNY/ton [1] - The USDA's August supply and demand report maintains the soybean meal production forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 59.85 million short tons, unchanged from July [1] - The EU's soybean meal import volume for the 2025/2026 season is reported at 1.98 million tons, down from 2.34 million tons last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) forecasts soybean meal exports for August to reach 2.27 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 1.74 million tons [1] - Domestic procurement pace for the fourth quarter is slow, with stable crushing rates at oil mills and increasing soybean meal inventories reaching annual highs [2] - The weather conditions in the U.S. soybean-producing regions are expected to experience high temperatures and low rainfall in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean quality and supply [2]