Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Rupiah is expected to remain under pressure until the end of the year due to a narrowing trade surplus and increased domestic demand leading to higher imports [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Factors - Indonesia's trade surplus is projected to narrow as a result of declining commodity prices, which are causing a slowdown in exports [1] - Increased domestic demand is contributing to a rise in imports, further impacting the trade balance [1] Group 2: Financial Market Dynamics - There is an ongoing outflow of funds from the financial sector as policy uncertainty drives investors to sell Indonesian bonds [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Indonesian central bank and the Federal Reserve is widening, adding pressure to the Rupiah [1] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance has shifted away from being accommodative due to the U.S. government shutdown, while the Indonesian central bank maintains a relatively accommodative position [1]