（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 据数据平台SosoValue显示，周四美国11只比特币现货交易所交易基金(ETF)遭遇8.6986亿美元资金 流出，创下该品类有记录以来第二大规模单日资金外流。近三周内投资者已累计撤资26.4亿美元，显示 市场谨慎情绪持续升温。此次资金外流正值比特币跌破10万美元关键支撑位，且华尔街风险偏好显著恶 化之际。以太坊ETF同日录得2.5972亿美元流出，创10月13日以来最高纪录。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

大华继显分析师Suryaputra Wijaksana报告称，印尼盾预计在年底前将持续承压。预计该国贸易顺差将收 窄，因 大宗商品价格下跌导致出口放缓，而国内需求增加则推高进口。该分析师称，由于政策高度不 确定促使投资者抛售印尼债券，金融领域的资金外流料将持续。此外，印尼央行与美联储之间的货币政 策分化日益扩大。在美国政府停摆导致经济数据暂停发布后，美联储的立场已不像之前那样偏宽松，而 印尼央行则保持了相对偏宽松的立场，这进一步给印尼盾带来了压力。 ...

（责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 美银：加密货币当周出现3亿美元资金外流，为10周以来首次出现资金流出。 ...

当下，"走出去"正成为众多中国企业的选择。然而，中国企业"出海"在给目的国带来优质投资与技术的 同时，也引发了他国的一定担忧。 10月22日，在中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）与开泰银行联合发布《金融服务企业出海白皮书：中泰合 作视角下的机遇与挑战》（以下简称《白皮书》）的现场，中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯就以在 泰国的调研为例谈到，中国产品价格具有竞争优势，导致许多泰国本地中小企业难以发展甚至被挤出市 场。一些"新侨"被"老侨"批评：做事着急，风风火火，习惯把国内套路直接搬到海外，不关心本土实际 情况。 据郭凯介绍，2020-2024年，中国累计在东盟的制造业绿地投资（国家直接投资的传统方式，通过设立 工厂或机构直接提升东道国的生产能力等）为659.1亿美元，其中有422.6亿美元为"新三样"绿地投资， 占比达64.1%。 在东盟十国中，泰国也是中企出海的重要目的地。《白皮书》课题组在泰国实地调研中发现，中国企业 的到来也引发了来自泰国的本土企业担忧。比如：中国产品价格极具竞争优势，导致许多泰国本地中小 企业难以发展甚至被挤出市场；中国企业依赖国内供应链，不愿意采购泰国本土商品；高技能工人主要 依赖中国员 ...

Core Insights - Investors are rapidly channeling funds into U.S. ETFs, with inflows surpassing $1 trillion this year, indicating a significant shift from traditional mutual funds to lower-cost, more liquid ETFs [1] - This trend is expected to continue, potentially reaching an annual record of $1.4 trillion by the end of 2025, driven by a broad range of ETF categories benefiting from this influx [1] - The U.S. ETF industry has seen a consistent net inflow for 41 consecutive months, with assets reaching $12.7 trillion as of the end of September [1] Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - The momentum of ETF inflows has accelerated this year, with a nearly 23% increase in asset inflows year-to-date [1] - The outflow of funds from mutual funds, totaling $481 billion in the first nine months of 2025, is expected to continue driving higher ETF inflows [1] - The historical milestone of $1 trillion in ETF inflows was first achieved on December 11 of the previous year, marking a significant moment in the industry [1] Industry Perspectives - Industry experts emphasize the need for accelerated innovation, expanded market access, and enhanced investor education in light of the growing ETF market [1] - Discussions among asset managers about launching new ETFs or converting existing mutual funds into ETFs are becoming increasingly common, reflecting the industry's adaptive strategies amid market uncertainties [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weakening of the US dollar since the implementation of Trump's tariffs on April 2, while the Chinese yuan remains under pressure. It analyzes the reasons behind the dollar's decline and the potential future trends for both the dollar and yuan [1]. Group 1: Recent Weakness of the US Dollar - Since January 10, the US dollar has been continuously weakening, with the dollar index dropping to 99.4 by April 17, a decline of 9.3%. The dollar's performance has shown a clear divergence against developed and emerging market currencies, with declines of 7.6% and 1.4% respectively [2][7]. - Prior to April 7, the primary reason for the dollar's weakness was the rising expectations of a US recession, as indicated by a drop in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index from 14.5 to -19.5. This led to an increase in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which rose from 1.2 to 4.2 times by April 4, causing a significant drop of 62 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [2][17]. - After April 7, despite a rebound in Treasury yields, the dollar continued to weaken, possibly due to overseas capital fleeing the US. This shift in market sentiment transitioned from "flight to safety" to "flight to non-US" assets [2][28]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the US Dollar - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies may continue to exert downward pressure on the US economy, potentially leading to further dollar weakness. The tariffs are expected to increase economic and trade uncertainties, impacting corporate activities and consumer confidence [3][39]. - The GTAP model suggests that the tariffs could reduce US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points. Historical patterns indicate that during recessions, the dollar typically strengthens; however, current concerns about US debt sustainability and Trump's isolationist policies may weaken the dollar's safe-haven status [3][52]. - The outflow of funds from US assets could diminish the likelihood of the dollar's typical "smile curve" behavior during a recession, as capital flows towards non-US assets increase [3][52]. Group 3: Implications for the Chinese Yuan - Despite the weakening dollar, the Chinese yuan has also depreciated, primarily due to the direct impact of tariff policies. Since April 2, while the dollar index fell by 4.1%, the onshore yuan depreciated by 0.4%, reaching a new low since the 2015 reform [4][61]. - Looking ahead, the depreciation pressure on the yuan may ease as external shocks diminish. The ongoing US economic downturn and capital outflows from the US could alleviate external pressures on the yuan [4][92]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tools to counter cyclical behaviors in the market, and the accumulation of approximately $123.9 billion in pending foreign exchange settlements since 2023 may provide a buffer for the yuan's stability [4][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant improvement in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates in China, attributing this to the return of cross-border funds rather than traditional economic factors [3][10][39]. Group 1: Economic Context - M1 and M2 have maintained a high growth rate, with the M2-M1 spread continuing to narrow [3]. - Many institutions struggle to understand the substantial improvement in M1 and M2 due to their traditional economic perspectives [6][8][9]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - China is characterized as an open economy, allowing for significant cross-border capital flows, which can lead to misunderstandings about domestic monetary conditions [11][12]. - The article explains that when interest rates are lowered in China while they are raised in the U.S., it can lead to capital outflows, impacting M1 and M2 negatively [16][19]. Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The movement of deposits between banks in China and the U.S. is illustrated, showing how a decrease in Chinese interest rates can lead to a contraction in domestic bank balance sheets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the recent return of funds to China is linked to uncertainties created by U.S. policies and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [35][36]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The return of funds is expected to positively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets, which have been under pressure due to real estate risks [52][54]. - The article suggests that the current market dynamics indicate that the return of capital will continue, potentially leading to significant market recoveries [55][58]. Group 5: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The article notes that the core CPI is gradually rising, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics as capital returns to China [61][64]. - Traditional financial data may not accurately reflect the current economic conditions due to the unique nature of the capital flows [66].

Core Insights - A significant financial phenomenon is occurring in China, where banks, once seen as a safe haven for national savings, are experiencing unprecedented "capital migration" [1] - The growth rate of national resident deposits fell to a near ten-year low of 3.2% in Q2 2025, down from 5.9% in the same period of 2024, indicating a substantial shift in financial behavior [1][3] - The net outflow of resident deposits reached 786.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, 2.3 times that of the same period in 2024, marking the first time since 2010 that deposits have seen consecutive quarterly net outflows [3] Factors Driving Capital Migration - Continuous decline in interest rates is a key driver, with the average one-year fixed deposit rate dropping to a historical low of 1.65% in June 2025, resulting in negative real interest rates when adjusted for inflation [3] - In contrast, the average annualized yield of bank wealth management products rose to 3.7% in Q2 2025, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, attracting funds away from traditional savings [3] New Investment Directions - Funds are diversifying into five main areas, reflecting a shift in investment strategies [4] 1. **Wealth Management Products**: The scale of wealth management products reached 31.7 trillion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.3% increase from the end of 2024, with equity and mixed products surpassing 50% for the first time [5] 2. **Stock Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.7% in H1 2025, attracting significant capital inflow, particularly from younger investors aged 30 and below, who accounted for 41.6% of new A-share accounts [6] 3. **Real Estate Market**: New home sales in first-tier cities grew by 12.3% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a recovery trend despite the overall market adjustment [7] 4. **Insurance Market**: Life insurance premium income reached 2.1 trillion yuan, a 22.5% year-on-year increase, with annuity and health insurance seeing rapid growth [9] 5. **Overseas Asset Allocation**: Personal foreign exchange purchases reached 56 billion USD in H1 2025, a 17.3% increase, reflecting a growing interest in overseas investments [11] Changing Investment Behavior - The shift in capital flow is characterized by generational differences, with younger generations (post-85 and post-90) leading the trend of reducing bank deposits in favor of equity assets, while older generations remain more conservative [12] - This transformation in investment philosophy indicates a move from traditional savings to a more diversified asset allocation approach, reflecting an increase in financial literacy among residents [12][14] Implications for Financial Institutions - The outflow of deposits poses challenges for banks, with the net interest margin dropping to 1.72%, the lowest on record [13] - In response, banks are innovating products, such as AI-driven wealth management solutions, to attract and retain customer funds [13] - The shift towards diversified asset allocation is seen as a positive signal for the financial market's deepening and the enhancement of residents' financial literacy [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the global trade system by Trump and his pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates are prompting investors to reduce their allocation to U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Investor Behavior - According to Mercer, 3,900 clients managing a total of $17 trillion in assets are increasingly shifting funds from the U.S. to other markets such as Europe and Japan [1] - Concerns over tariff policies, Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve, rising deficits, and expectations of a weaker dollar are driving this capital outflow [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - Trump's second term has become a catalyst for true diversification in investment portfolios [1] - There is a clear observation of clients' investment portfolios moving towards diversified markets, regions, asset classes, and currencies [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the unprecedented capital outflow from the Vietnamese stock market, with foreign investors selling local stocks worth $1.5 billion in August, marking the largest monthly outflow since records began in 2009 [1][4] - Concerns over unfavorable exchange rate prospects and profit-taking from previous market gains are driving the capital outflow [3][4] - The Vietnamese dong has depreciated approximately 3.4% against the US dollar this year, making it the worst-performing currency in Southeast Asia, with further depreciation expected due to rising import demand and a narrowing current account surplus [4][7] Group 2 - Despite the significant foreign capital withdrawal, the Vietnamese stock market is supported by resilient domestic capital flows and improving corporate earnings, which may help cushion the impact of foreign outflows [7] - The VN index has surged over 32% this year, outperforming most Southeast Asian markets, but this rebound has also led to higher market valuations, prompting foreign investors to lock in profits [7] - Notably, a substantial portion of the capital outflow is concentrated in key stocks, such as Vingroup, which saw a net outflow of approximately 49.3 million USD [4]