Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stabilization of the euro against the dollar, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the market awaiting key economic data and events for direction [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The ECB maintains a cautious hawkish stance, indicating no interest rate cuts in the short term and not ruling out rate hikes, providing support for the euro despite a decline in eurozone inflation [1] - The Fed has signaled caution, emphasizing that interest rate cuts will not occur until inflation reaches target levels, indirectly suppressing the euro against the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Resilience - The eurozone economy shows resilience with positive domestic demand and trade performance, further solidifying the fundamental support for the euro [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and fluctuations in U.S. policy and trade dynamics weaken the dollar's strength, allowing room for euro recovery [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The euro has entered a phase of oversold recovery after a period of adjustment, with bearish momentum diminishing and an increased probability of a rebound [1] - The euro/dollar exchange rate is operating above key support levels, with the moving average system gradually repairing, indicating a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] Group 4: Impact of Euro Strength - A stronger euro can enhance purchasing power for residents, lower import costs, and alleviate imported inflation, but it may also weaken the competitiveness of export-driven economies and hinder manufacturing recovery [1] - This dual impact could indirectly influence ECB policies and the trajectory of the euro [1] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term exchange rates will be driven by evening data, earnings reports, and market sentiment, while medium to long-term trends will be dominated by the divergence in policies between the U.S. and Europe, eurozone economic recovery, global trade, and dollar credibility [2] - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding the outlook, with most believing that policy differences will keep the exchange rate in a range, while some warn of potential pullback risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a mild upward trend, primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, alongside a generally strong USD environment [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are cooling, with the January meeting minutes reinforcing a "wait and see" approach, focusing on bringing inflation back to 2% [1] - The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in March, with expectations for rates to remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range [1] - In contrast, the Bank of Canada has cut rates four times in 2025 by a total of 100 basis points, maintaining the key rate at 2.25% and signaling a long-term hold unless significant changes occur in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The overall strength of the USD, reflected in a 0.14% increase in the USD index to 97.844, supports the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] - The Bank of Canada has lowered its GDP growth forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, indicating a weak economic outlook that diminishes support for the CAD [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is showing a mild upward trend, with recent price action rebounding from mid-February lows and finding support around 1.3690 [2] - If the exchange rate can maintain above the 1.3690 support level, it may test previous highs around 1.3724, with resistance concentrated between 1.3705 and 1.3724 [2] - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on Federal Reserve policy decisions and Canadian economic data performance [2]

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate approached the 1.19 mark on February 11, reaching a high of 1.1895 before stabilizing around 1.1880, indicating a significant weakening of confidence in the dollar and an increase in the euro's relative strength [1] - The recent rise in the euro is attributed to a combination of a weakening dollar and the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy stance, reflecting a complex interplay of various factors [1][3] - The US debt ceiling negotiations are progressing slowly, raising concerns about potential default risks on US debt, which, although not realized, have influenced short-term capital flows [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have diminished the dollar's interest rate advantage, contributing to the decline of the dollar index below 96.50, thus providing upward space for the euro to dollar exchange rate [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has emphasized that interest rate cuts will not be considered until inflation approaches the target, which is interpreted as a relatively hawkish stance compared to the Fed's potential shift towards easing [3] - The technical analysis shows that the euro to dollar exchange rate has continued its upward trend after breaking the 1.18 level, with increased trading volume and indicators like MACD and RSI suggesting short-term bullish momentum [3] Group 3 - Attention is shifting towards the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could either temporarily ease the dollar's decline if strong or reinforce speculation about a Fed policy shift if weak, thus impacting short-term exchange rate volatility [4] - The euro's strength is not solely due to significant improvements in its internal economic dynamics, as the eurozone still faces structural challenges such as slow manufacturing recovery and uncertainties in the external trade environment [4] - The current rise of the euro against the dollar reflects the dollar's short-term weakness rather than a fundamental shift in the eurozone's economic fundamentals, indicating that the exchange rate remains sensitive to economic data and policy expectations from both sides [4]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, primarily influenced by the divergent monetary policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside the volatility in UK inflation and economic data, indicating short-term pressure and medium-term uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of England's Monetary Policy - The BoE decided to maintain the current benchmark interest rate at its first monetary policy meeting of the year, with several members voting in favor of a rate cut, which was unexpected and led to a short-term decline in the GBP [1]. - The BoE's cautious stance is driven by dual considerations of inflation and economic growth, with recent inflation data remaining above the central bank's medium-term target, suggesting a focus on sustainable inflation reduction [1]. - Predictions indicate that as inflation gradually decreases, the probability of a rate cut by the BoE in the spring increases, making upcoming meetings critical for potential rate adjustments [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In contrast to the BoE's dovish tendencies, the Fed's hawkish policy expectations continue to support the USD, further suppressing the GBP/USD exchange rate [2]. - Recent signals from multiple Fed officials emphasize that there will be no support for rate cuts until inflation shows significant decline, indicating a strong focus on inflation concerns over labor market fluctuations [2]. - Despite mixed economic data from the US, the overall resilience of the economy has not altered market expectations regarding the Fed's rate cut timeline [2]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Trends and Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has shown a weak overall trend, with a recent peak followed by a decline influenced by rising expectations of a BoE rate cut and hawkish statements from the Fed [2]. - Technical analysis indicates a downward arrangement of short-term moving averages, with bearish sentiment prevailing, although there are no clear oversold signals yet, suggesting limited downside risk [2]. - Market analysis points to the presence of key support and resistance levels, with potential for different fluctuation patterns depending on whether the exchange rate breaks through these levels [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investor Considerations - Long-term GBP/USD trends will depend on the policy divergence between the UK and US, economic recovery pace, and inflation performance [3]. - While the UK economy shows some resilience, factors such as a cooling labor market, limited fiscal space, and uncertain external trade conditions may constrain economic recovery and limit GBP's upside potential [3]. - For investors, it is crucial to monitor UK inflation, wage, and economic growth signals, as well as BoE officials' statements to assess changes in rate cut timelines, while also tracking Fed policy dynamics and US economic data to understand the impact on exchange rate movements [3].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US Dollar, trading around 1.1805, influenced by a stronger US Dollar and diverging monetary policies between the US and Eurozone [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The Euro has faced slight pressure due to a stronger US Dollar index, with the exchange rate fluctuating between a high of 1.1838 and a low of 1.1790, indicating a weak consolidation phase [1] - Market focus is on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, with expectations that the ECB will maintain current interest rates and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Eurozone inflation has decreased to its lowest level in over a year, driven by falling energy prices, but this has not prompted the ECB to adjust its policy, with predictions leaning towards stable rates rather than hikes [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, delaying expectations for rate cuts, which supports the US Dollar against the Euro [1] - The lack of robust economic recovery in the Eurozone limits the ECB's policy adjustment options, and the market has not fully priced in the ECB's potential rate cuts for the year [1] - Technical analysis indicates a short-term oscillation for the Euro against the Dollar, with resistance at 1.1850 and support at 1.1790, suggesting a need for a breakout to determine future trends [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Euro's future trajectory will depend on the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Eurozone, as well as the pace of Eurozone inflation and economic recovery [2] - Key upcoming events include ECB statements and US initial jobless claims data, which could influence short-term movements in the Euro [2] - A strong performance in US employment data may further bolster the US Dollar, exerting additional pressure on the Euro [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight upward trend against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.7005, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) unexpected interest rate hike and the recovery in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% on February 3, exceeding market expectations and signaling potential further tightening due to inflation remaining above target [1] - Market pricing indicates a probability of another rate hike in May, which continues to support the interest rate differential advantage of the AUD [1][2] Group 2: Commodity Prices - The recovery in prices of iron ore and copper is contributing to the strengthening of the AUD, as these commodities are key to Australia's economy [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate is showing a bullish trend, with the price steadily rising along the short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) [1] - Key resistance is identified at the 0.7050 level, with a potential upward movement towards 0.7100 if this level is breached [1] - Core support is at 0.6980, which is critical for maintaining the current bullish structure; a drop below this level could lead to consolidation [1] Group 4: Market Indicators - The MACD indicator is above the zero line, indicating strong upward momentum, while the RSI is in a neutral to strong range, suggesting further upward potential [2] - The 60-minute Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with the price near the upper band, indicating limited short-term pullback potential [2] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Attention is drawn to the upcoming US initial jobless claims data, which could impact the AUD/USD exchange rate depending on its performance relative to expectations [2]

Group 1 - The core focus is on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with expectations to maintain the benchmark rate at 3.75%, and the policy statement and wage-related comments will be crucial for GBP's direction [1] - UK economic and inflation data show contradictory trends, with December CPI rising 3.4% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but overall on a downward trend, expected to approach 2% by April-May [1] - The labor market remains weak, with an unemployment rate stable at 5.1% and private sector wage growth slowing to 3.6%, the lowest in five years, raising concerns about wage growth expectations exceeding the central bank's comfort zone [1] Group 2 - There are significant divisions within the Bank of England, with some officials advocating for rate cuts to alleviate employment pressure, while others are concerned about persistent inflation [1] - Market expectations for rate cuts are varied, with Berenberg predicting a cut in April, while Goldman Sachs expects cuts in March, June, and September, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in July [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and UK continues to impact GBP, with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve delaying rate cut expectations, supporting a stronger USD and indirectly pressuring GBP [1] Group 3 - Technically, GBP/USD is oscillating around the 1.3600-1.3700 range, with balanced bullish and bearish forces [2] - Key resistance is at the 1.3700 level, while support is at 1.3600; a break below could lead to further declines towards 1.3550 [2] - The upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision and statements from the Governor are critical, with potential hawkish signals possibly leading to a short-term rebound in GBP, while dovish signals could pressure it down [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the Swiss Franc benefiting from its safe-haven status amid ongoing global uncertainties and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 4, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.7758, showing a slight increase of 0.12% within a daily range of 0.7746 to 0.7765 [1] - The Swiss Franc's strength is supported by Switzerland's political neutrality, current account surplus, and low external debt, making it a core destination for global safe-haven funds [1] - Recent data indicates a rise in global safe-haven ETF holdings, with an increased proportion of assets related to the Swiss Franc, suggesting sustained demand for safe-haven investments [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The divergence in monetary policy is a key factor influencing short-term fluctuations in the USD/CHF exchange rate, with the Federal Reserve signaling a hawkish stance and likely maintaining high interest rates into 2026 [1][2] - The Swiss National Bank's cautious approach to tightening monetary policy, with a January CPI of approximately 1%, provides room for stable policies, despite market expectations for interest rate hikes [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF yield spread has narrowed to 120 basis points as of February 4, down from 150 basis points at the end of the previous year, diminishing the attractiveness of USD assets [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for USD/CHF, with the exchange rate operating below short-term moving averages and the MACD below the zero line, indicating potential for a technical rebound if resistance levels are breached [2] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 0.7735 and 0.7825 respectively, with potential movements dependent on upcoming US economic data and global risk sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing upward momentum due to the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, alongside the resilience of the US economy, which is pushing the rate closer to previous high levels [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The strengthening of the USD/JPY is primarily driven by the ongoing divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with the Bank of Japan cautiously moving towards monetary normalization while the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a tighter policy stance [1][2]. - Japan's CPI is projected to decline to 1.8% and core CPI to 1.9% in 2026, indicating weakening inflation resilience, which limits the tightening pace of the Bank of Japan [1]. - The US economy is supported by AI investments, with expectations that the Fed's easing will peak in the first half of 2026, leading to a stronger dollar due to favorable interest rate differentials [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Constraints in Japan - Japan's economy faces multiple constraints, including a declining export growth rate since 2025, which is expected to worsen due to increasing uncertainties in global trade [2]. - The Japanese government's leverage ratio has reached 211%, with fiscal stimulus pushing the deficit rate to 3.1%, raising concerns about debt risks that could limit the yen's performance [2]. - Labor shortages in Japan continue to hinder robust economic recovery, indirectly affecting the valuation of the yen [2]. Group 3: US Economic Resilience - The resilience of the US economy and persistent inflation further solidify the dollar's advantage, with investment becoming the primary growth driver, leading to an increase in GDP [2]. - Tariff costs and wage growth are contributing to core CPI stability, which supports the Fed's policy convergence [2]. - Despite fluctuations in the dollar index, the overall economic and policy environment continues to provide strong support for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish, with the price stabilizing above short-term moving averages and showing strong upward momentum [3]. - Key resistance levels are near previous highs, with a successful breakout potentially opening further upside, while support is identified at the 155.50 level [3]. - Short-term attention should be on Fed officials' statements and economic data from Japan and the US, as these could influence market movements [3].