技术面来看，欧元兑美元经阶段性回调后进入超卖修复，空头动能衰减，反弹概率上升。汇价运行于关 键支撑上方，均线系统逐步修复，多空博弈均衡，短期走势取决于关键点位突破情况，突破阻力可延续 修复，反之或重回震荡、测试支撑。 欧元走强存在双重影响：既提升居民购买力、降低进口成本、缓解输入性通胀，也可能削弱出口经济体 竞争力、拖累制造业复苏，进而间接影响欧央行政策与欧元走势。 后市而言，短期汇价受晚间数据、财报及情绪驱动，关键点位决定波动方向；中长期由欧美政策分化、 欧元区经济复苏、全球贸易及美元信用主导。机构分歧明显，多数认为政策差未扭转前汇价震荡、下行 空间有限，也有机构警示回调风险。 投资者需保持谨慎，重点关注关键点位得失，依托技术修复适度低吸布局，跌破支撑果断离场、严控仓 位止损，持续跟踪欧美央行动向、经济数据及地缘贸易局势。 2026年2月25日周三，全球汇市交投平稳，欧元兑美元低位企稳，摆脱前期弱势开启技术性修复，围绕 近期区间震荡未现明确单边方向，市场静待晚间重点财经数据及相关事件指引。 基本面核心是欧央行与美联储的货币政策分化。欧央行维持谨慎偏鹰立场，虽欧元区通胀回落，但核心 通胀黏性仍存，官员明确短期 ...

技术面来看，美元兑加元短期呈现温和上行态势。从近期走势看，汇价自2月中旬低位逐步反弹，日内 依托1.3690支撑震荡走高，4小时图显示多头动能温和，短期支撑位于1.3690附近，若有效站稳该位置， 有望进一步测试1.3724前期高位；上方阻力集中在1.3705—1.3724区间，突破后将进一步打开上行空 间，若未能突破则可能重回区间震荡整理。 后市展望，美元兑加元短期仍将维持震荡走强格局，走势取决于美联储政策动向及加拿大经济数据表 现。机构分析认为，美联储与加拿大央行的货币政策分化将继续支撑汇价，但需警惕加拿大经济数据超 预期回暖及美联储官员鸽派讲话带来的回调风险。投资者需重点关注美国通胀数据、美联储及加拿大央 行官员讲话，合理控制仓位与止损。 2026年2月25日，美元兑加元延续震荡走强态势，截至亚市尾盘报1.3702，微涨0.05%，日内交投于 1.3692至1.3705区间。汇价走势主要受美联储与加拿大央行货币政策分化及美元整体偏强格局主导，短 期呈现温和上行态势，多空博弈相对平缓。 基本面核心驱动聚焦美联储与加拿大央行货币政策差异，这一格局持续支撑美元兑加元。美联储方面， 降息预期持续遇冷，1月会议纪 ...

欧元兑美元汇率在2月11日逼近1.19关口，盘中触及1.1895高位，最终企稳于1.1880附近。这一走势反映出外汇市场短期内对美元信心的明显削弱，以及欧元 相对支撑力的增强。市场观点普遍将本轮欧元上行归因于美元走软与欧洲央行政策立场的共同作用，其背后涉及多方因素的博弈。 欧洲央行的政策表态亦对欧元形成支撑。尽管欧元区经济增长面临挑战，通胀水平仍处于高位，核心通胀指标出现反复。欧洲央行行长拉加德多次强调，在 通胀持续向目标靠拢之前，不会考虑降息。这一表态被市场解读为相对"鹰派"，与美联储可能转向宽松的预期形成对比。货币政策路径的分化预期，成为欧 元获得支撑的重要因素之一。 技术层面显示，欧元兑美元在突破1.18关口后延续升势，成交量同步放大，MACD与RSI等指标均显示短期动能偏多。1.19整数关口成为近期重要阻力位， 若突破则可能进一步上探1.20区域。但技术指标亦提示，在关键点位附近可能出现波动加剧与获利了结现象。 市场关注焦点转向即将公布的美国非农就业数据。该数据若表现强劲，可能暂时缓和美元跌势；反之若不及预期，则可能强化市场对美联储政策转向的猜 测，进一步压制美元。此类经济数据往往成为短期汇率波动的重 ...

近期英镑兑美元整体呈现窄幅震荡态势，汇率波动核心聚焦于英国央行与美联储的货币政策分化，叠加 英国通胀与经济数据的反复，短期承压迹象明显，中长期走势仍存在不确定性。 英国央行近期的利率决议成为影响英镑走势的关键节点。在本年度首次货币政策会议上，英国央行以微 弱多数决定维持现有基准利率不变，多名委员投票支持降息，这一超出市场预期的内部分歧引发英镑短 线承压下行，后续盘中进一步走低，创下阶段性新低。 与英国央行的偏宽松倾向形成对比，美联储的鹰派政策预期持续为美元提供支撑，进一步压制英镑兑美 元走势。近期美联储多名官员释放鹰派信号，强调在通胀未显著回落前不会支持降息，对通胀的担忧远 超劳动力市场波动。同时，市场对美联储相关人事提名的预期也给予美元正面支撑，被解读为美联储将 维持高利率更长时间的信号。尽管美国近期经济数据呈现分化，但整体仍具一定韧性，未改变市场对美 联储降息节奏放缓的判断。 从近期汇率走势来看，英镑兑美元呈现震荡偏弱的整体格局。回顾近期走势，英镑兑美元曾一度冲高至 阶段性高点，但随后受英国央行降息预期升温、美联储鹰派表态等因素影响，逐步进入回调通道。技术 面来看，短期均线呈下行排列，空头占据一定优势，尚 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US Dollar, trading around 1.1805, influenced by a stronger US Dollar and diverging monetary policies between the US and Eurozone [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The Euro has faced slight pressure due to a stronger US Dollar index, with the exchange rate fluctuating between a high of 1.1838 and a low of 1.1790, indicating a weak consolidation phase [1] - Market focus is on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, with expectations that the ECB will maintain current interest rates and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Eurozone inflation has decreased to its lowest level in over a year, driven by falling energy prices, but this has not prompted the ECB to adjust its policy, with predictions leaning towards stable rates rather than hikes [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, delaying expectations for rate cuts, which supports the US Dollar against the Euro [1] - The lack of robust economic recovery in the Eurozone limits the ECB's policy adjustment options, and the market has not fully priced in the ECB's potential rate cuts for the year [1] - Technical analysis indicates a short-term oscillation for the Euro against the Dollar, with resistance at 1.1850 and support at 1.1790, suggesting a need for a breakout to determine future trends [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Euro's future trajectory will depend on the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Eurozone, as well as the pace of Eurozone inflation and economic recovery [2] - Key upcoming events include ECB statements and US initial jobless claims data, which could influence short-term movements in the Euro [2] - A strong performance in US employment data may further bolster the US Dollar, exerting additional pressure on the Euro [2]

今日需重点关注美国初请失业金数据，若数据表现强劲提振美元，澳元兑美元或迎来小幅技术回调；若 数据不及预期，汇价有望依托0.6980支撑再度上攻0.7050阻力。在澳洲联储鹰派立场未转向、技术面多 头结构完好的前提下，澳元兑美元短期偏强格局难改。 技术面与基本面形成同向指引，日线级别汇价沿MA5、MA10短期均线稳步攀升，均线系统呈多头排 列，多头趋势结构完整。上方关键阻力聚焦0.7050阶段高点，突破后将打开至0.7100的上行空间；下方 核心支撑为0.6980，该位置叠加短周期布林带中轨支撑，是短线多空分水岭，若失守则汇价或转入震荡 整理，进一步支撑看0.6930的MA10共振位。 指标层面，MACD在零轴上方保持金叉，红柱动能持续释放，确认上涨动能充沛；RSI处于58-62的中性 偏强区间，未进入超买区域，汇价仍有延续上行的空间。60分钟周期布林带开口向上，汇价贴附上轨运 行，短线回调力度有限，整体维持震荡上行节奏。 2月5日(周四)亚市盘中，澳元兑美元窄幅偏强运行，汇价交投于0.7005附近，日内小幅上行，牢牢站稳 0.70整数关口。澳洲联储2月3日超预期加息25个基点至3.85%，且释放后续仍有收紧可 ...

2月5日(周四)亚市盘中，美元兑英镑窄幅震荡，英镑兑美元交投于1.3635附近，日内微跌0.11%，延续近 期区间博弈态势。今日核心焦点为英国央行利率决议，市场普遍预期该行维持3.75%基准利率不变，政 策声明及薪资相关表述将成为英镑走势的关键指引。 基本面来看，英国经济与通胀数据呈现矛盾态势，制约英央行政策走向。12月CPI同比上涨3.4%，虽略 超预期但整体呈回落趋势，预计今年4-5月接近2%的目标水平；就业市场疲软，失业率稳定在5.1%，私 营部门薪资增速降至3.6%的五年低点，却仍有薪资增长预期高于央行舒适区间的隐忧，加剧政策决策 难度。 英央行内部分歧明显，部分官员主张降息缓解就业压力，另一部分则担忧通胀粘性，此前12月降息决议 仅以5比4的微弱多数通过。机构对降息节奏预期分化，贝伦贝格预测4月启动降息，高盛预计3、6、9月 各降息一次，当前市场已完全计入7月降息25个基点的预期。 美英货币政策分化持续影响英镑走势，美联储鹰派信号推迟降息预期，支撑美元相对强势，间接压制英 镑；而英国私营部门商业活动改善、GDP小幅回升，为英镑提供一定支撑，双向制衡下英镑难以形成单 边趋势。 技术面而言，英镑兑美元围 ...

货币政策分化是美瑞短期波动的核心。美联储官员近期释放鹰派信号，强调通胀粘性，2026年大概率维 持高利率、暂缓降息，曾为美元提供支撑，但美瑞反弹动能不足。 2月4日亚市盘中，美元兑瑞士法郎窄幅震荡，截至发稿交投于0.7758，日内微涨0.12%，波动区间 0.7746-0.7765。2026年初以来，美瑞持续弱势震荡，核心受瑞郎避险属性、美联储政策预期及美瑞利差 主导，市场观望情绪浓厚。 瑞士凭借政治中立、经常账户盈余、低外债等优势，是全球避险资金核心配置地，长期压制美瑞走势。 当前全球地缘局势仍存不确定性，区域冲突、经济复苏不均等问题未缓解，避险资金持续流入瑞郎，为 其提供稳固支撑。 资金流向显示，近期全球避险ETF持仓攀升，瑞郎相关资产持仓占比环比提升，避险需求未降温。业内 认为，若全球风险偏好未持续回暖，瑞郎避险溢价将长期存在，美瑞上行空间受限。 短线支撑位0.7735(近期震荡下沿)，守住则维持窄幅震荡，跌破将下探0.7680；阻力位0.7825(20日均线 处)，突破有望扭转弱势，冲击0.7900关口。 瑞士央行退出负利率后收紧节奏偏缓，1月CPI同比约1%，远低于欧美，为稳健政策提供空间。尽管市 ...

汇价上行同时，日本经济面临多重制约，日元弱势虽短期利好出口，但难以扭转出口制造业的承压态 势。2025年以来日本出口同比增速波动下行，2026年全球贸易格局分化将进一步加剧外部需求不确定 性；同时日本政府杠杆率已达211%，财政刺激计划推动赤字率升至3.1%，债务风险隐忧凸显，长期制 约日元走势。此外，日本劳动力短缺问题持续，难以支撑经济强劲复苏，间接影响日元估值。 截至2026年2月4日，美元兑日元报156.06，微涨0.2119%，日内震荡于155.67-156.14区间，今开与昨收 均为155.71。近期汇价持续震荡上行，受益于美日央行政策分化及美国经济韧性支撑，逐步逼近前期高 位区间，多头动能稳步释放。 美元兑日元走强核心源于美日货币政策分化的持续发酵。日本央行正逐步推进货币正常化，缓慢退出负 利率，但节奏审慎，2026年预计CPI回落至1.8%、核心CPI降至1.9%，通胀韧性减弱制约紧缩力度，叠 加日本推出超13.9万亿日元财政刺激计划托底经济，宽松基调未完全转变，对日元支撑有限。反观美 国，AI投资驱动经济保持韧性，2026年上半年美联储宽松见顶、下半年或转向审慎，政策收敛预期强 于日本央行，利 ...