Core Viewpoint - Indonesia has become a hotspot for global aluminum industry development due to its rich bauxite and coal resources, although energy prices do not show significant advantages [1][2] Resource Endowment - Indonesia ranks fourth and fifth globally in bauxite reserves and production, and seventh and third in coal reserves and production [2] - The country's low interconnection of the power grid means that electrolytic aluminum projects heavily rely on self-supplied electricity [2] - The industrial electricity price in Indonesia for 2024 is projected to be 0.49 CNY per kWh, while the comprehensive cost of new self-supplied power plants is 0.55 CNY per kWh, which does not provide a significant advantage compared to China [2] Project Overview - From 2025 to 2030, Indonesia's alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase by an average of 320,000 tons and 56,000 tons per year, respectively [3] - The alumina capacity is projected to grow from 4 million tons per year to 25.2 million tons per year, with a CAGR of 35.9% [3] - The electrolytic aluminum production is expected to reach 375,000 tons by 2030, with various projects contributing to this growth [3] Return Assessment - The investment return for electrolytic aluminum is relatively limited, while the return advantage for alumina is notable [4] - Under current market conditions, the cost of alumina in Indonesia is 289 USD/ton, with a payback period of 5 years, compared to 388 USD/ton for domestic Chinese alumina with an 8-year payback period [4] - For electrolytic aluminum, the cost in Indonesia is 2,613 USD/ton, requiring aluminum prices to reach 2,800-3,000 USD to improve the payback period [4] Supply Outlook - The Indonesian projects are unlikely to change the downward trend in global electrolytic aluminum production growth, but they will alter the global alumina cost curve [5] - The complete cost center for alumina in China and Indonesia is expected to decrease from 3,030 CNY/ton to 2,840 CNY/ton, leading to a narrowing of industry profits [5]