Group 1: Market Overview - The PVC market has been experiencing a downward trend since April, with prices in East China dropping to 4730 yuan per ton as of May 8, a decrease of 140 yuan or 2.87% from April 1 [1] - Supply expectations are increasing due to limited maintenance during the conventional repair season and the introduction of new production capacities [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The maintenance period for PVC production is expected to last from April to August, with production rates increasing post-holiday [2] - PVC production is projected to reach 474,000 tons during the period from May 3 to 9, reflecting a 2.4% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Planned maintenance capacity in April was approximately 5.7 million tons, which is a 20.94% decrease compared to the previous two years, limiting effective supply reduction [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for PVC is supported by stimulus policies in the real estate market, but overall demand remains weak due to uncertainties from the US-China trade disputes [3] - The construction and renovation sectors are expected to drive traditional PVC demand, but low operating rates in PVC pipe and profile enterprises indicate weak internal demand [3] - India, as the largest export destination for Chinese PVC, poses risks due to anti-dumping policies, potentially affecting over 700,000 tons of PVC consumption [3] Group 4: Cost Considerations - The domestic PVC production primarily uses the calcium carbide method, but the proportion of ethylene-based PVC is gradually increasing, reaching 27.91% as of April [4] - The reliance on imported ethane for ethylene production could lead to increased costs if tariffs are imposed, potentially pushing production costs above the breakeven point [4][5] - The impact of US-China trade tensions may raise the cost of imported ethane, affecting coastal ethylene projects, although the overall effect on PVC powder may be limited due to diverse raw material sources [5]