Core Points - The article discusses the recent joint statement released by the White House regarding the U.S.-Thailand Trade Framework, highlighting significant trade agreements and commitments made by Thailand to enhance bilateral trade relations [1][2] Group 1: Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers - Thailand will eliminate 99% of tariff barriers on all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products, while the U.S. will maintain a 19% equivalent tariff on Thai goods, with certain items listed in the White House's executive order subject to zero tariffs [1] - Thailand has agreed to address non-tariff barriers for U.S. industrial products by accepting U.S. standards for vehicles, FDA-approved pharmaceuticals, issuing import licenses for U.S. fuel ethanol, and removing legal incentives for customs penalties [1] - For U.S. food and agricultural products, Thailand will expedite the entry of meat, poultry, and horticultural products that meet U.S. certification standards and accept certifications from U.S. regulatory agencies [1] Group 2: Services and Investment - Thailand commits to not imposing a digital services tax, ensuring non-discriminatory measures for U.S. digital services, and supporting the WTO's suspension of electronic transmission tariffs [1] - The country will not impose screening quotas on films and will relax foreign ownership restrictions in the telecommunications sector, as well as eliminate regulations requiring domestic processing of Thai-issued debit card transactions [1] Group 3: Purchase Commitments - Thailand plans to purchase approximately $2.6 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including feed corn, soybean meal, and dried distillers grains [2] - The country will also buy about $5.4 billion in U.S. energy products each year, including liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and ethane, along with 80 aircraft from the U.S. totaling $18.8 billion [2] - Additional principles regarding labor, environment, intellectual property, and state-owned enterprises are included in the agreement, with negotiations for the Trade Agreement set to commence in the coming weeks [2]

Core Points - The U.S. and Thailand have reached a joint statement regarding a framework for a bilateral trade agreement, focusing on tariff reductions and non-tariff barriers [1] Tariff Summary - Thailand will eliminate tariffs on 99% of goods, covering all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products [3] - The U.S. will maintain a 19% reciprocal tariff on Thai goods, but certain items listed in the September 5 Executive Order will have zero tariffs [3] Non-Tariff Barriers Summary - Thailand will address non-tariff barriers for U.S. industrial products by accepting U.S. standards for vehicles and FDA-approved pharmaceuticals, issuing import licenses for U.S. ethanol, and removing customs incentives related to penalty targets [3] - For U.S. food and agricultural products, Thailand will expedite the entry of certified meat, poultry, and horticultural products, and accept U.S. certification [3] Service Trade and Investment Summary - Thailand commits to not imposing a digital services tax, ensuring free data transmission, supporting the WTO's suspension of electronic transmission tariffs, and removing film screening quotas [3] - The country will relax foreign ownership limits in the telecommunications sector and eliminate regulations requiring domestic processing of transactions for Thai-issued debit cards [3] Purchase Commitments Summary - Thailand plans to purchase approximately $2.6 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including feed corn and soybean meal [4] - The country will buy around $5.4 billion in U.S. energy products, including LNG, crude oil, and ethane [4] - Thailand will acquire 80 U.S. aircraft totaling $18.8 billion [4] Future Negotiations Summary - Future negotiations on the bilateral trade agreement will take place in the coming weeks, with preparations for signing and domestic procedures to make the agreement effective [4]

Core Points - The U.S. and Thailand have reached a joint statement regarding a framework for a bilateral trade agreement, focusing on tariff reductions and non-tariff barriers [1] - Thailand will eliminate tariffs on 99% of goods, covering all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products, while the U.S. will maintain a 19% tariff on Thai goods, with some exceptions [1] - Thailand commits to addressing non-tariff barriers for U.S. industrial products, food, and services, including accepting U.S. standards and certifications [1] Tariff Summary - Thailand will remove tariffs on 99% of goods, impacting all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products [1] - The U.S. will keep a 19% tariff on Thai goods, but certain items listed in a specific executive order will have zero tariffs [1] Non-Tariff Barriers - Thailand will accept U.S. manufactured vehicles that meet U.S. standards and U.S. FDA-approved medical products [1] - Thailand will expedite the entry of U.S. certified meat, poultry, and horticultural products into its market [1] - Thailand will not impose a digital services tax and will ensure the free transmission of data across borders [1] Trade Commitments - Thailand will purchase approximately $2.6 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including feed corn and soybean meal [1] - Thailand will also buy about $5.4 billion in U.S. energy products each year, including LNG, crude oil, and ethane [1] - An order for 80 U.S. aircraft is included, totaling $18.8 billion [1] Future Negotiations - The U.S. and Thailand will negotiate the "Reciprocal Trade Agreement" in the coming weeks, preparing for signing and domestic procedures to implement the agreement [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was reported at $2.4 billion, with distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1.8 billion, providing a coverage ratio of 1.5x [10][18] - Net income attributable to common unitholders was $1.3 billion, or $0.61 per common unit on a fully diluted basis [14] - The partnership declared a distribution of $0.545 per common unit, representing a 3.8% increase over the same period in 2024 [14] - Total capital investments for Q3 2025 were $2 billion, including $1.2 billion for growth capital projects [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - PDH plants showed improvement, with PDH 1 averaging 95% of nameplate capacity, while PDH 2 resumed operations after a turnaround [11] - The company purchased approximately 2.5 million common units under its buyback program for $80 million in Q3 2025 [14] - Total repurchases for the first nine months of 2025 reached $250 million, totaling approximately 8 million common units [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects an inflation inflection point in discretionary free cash flow in 2026, following a four-year period of significant investments [16] - The consolidated leverage ratio was reported at 3.3x on a net basis, above the target range of 2.75x-3.25x due to capital expenditures on large projects [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a $3 billion increase to its buyback program, raising it from $2 billion to $5 billion, indicating a strong commitment to returning capital to unitholders [12] - Strategic investments in pipelines, marine terminals, and key acquisitions are expected to capitalize on long-term growth from the Haynesville and Permian basins [12] - The company is nearing the end of a multi-year capital deployment cycle that began in 2022, with a focus on organic growth capital expenditures returning to a mid-cycle range of approximately $2 billion-$2.5 billion per year [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the upcoming projects, including the Bahia Pipeline and Seminole Pipeline Conversion, which are expected to enhance capacity and flexibility [10] - The management team highlighted that the Permian Basin remains primarily an oil basin, with the addition of more gas pipelines being beneficial for producers [23] - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment is not a concern, as they believe price will create supply and demand [26][46] Other Important Information - The company expects to see growth in cash distributions to partners commensurate with distributable cash flow per unit in the near term [17] - The acquisition of natural gas gathering systems from Occidental is expected to unlock significant revenue opportunities [93] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the new Permian gas pipelines drive more production? - Management indicated that the Permian Basin is primarily an oil basin, and the new pipelines will enhance NGL transportation, benefiting producers [23] Question: Is there unlimited demand for LPG in Asia? - Management noted that both residential/commercial and petrochemical demand are growing, and the U.S. will export what's needed to balance the market [25][26] Question: What is the capital allocation outlook for the next few years? - Management expects organic growth CapEx in the $2 billion-$2.5 billion range, with a focus on splitting free cash flow between buybacks and debt pay down [36] Question: How is the integration of the Occidental assets going? - The acquisition is strategic, with significant organic growth opportunities expected, including an incremental $200 million in revenue [93] Question: What is the outlook for the Permian sour gas opportunity? - Management remains optimistic about the Permian sour gas opportunity, with additional treating capacity expected to come online [98]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 was impacted by maintenance activities, with a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous year [11][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year [5][11]. - The report anticipates an improvement in the olefin market structure, which could benefit the company's future performance [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.15%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.61% [5][11]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year and down 13.95% quarter-on-quarter [5][11]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.342 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.63% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% [5][11]. Market and Operational Insights - The company faced significant pressure in Q3 due to routine maintenance of its polyethylene and ethylene glycol facilities, which lasted for 45 days and affected the C2 chain profitability [11]. - The average price of ethane in Q3 2025 was 170 USD/ton, a decrease of 4.81% from the previous quarter [11]. - The company has invested in a new ethanolamine facility with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons, enhancing its product diversification and market competitiveness [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 5.48 billion yuan, 6.73 billion yuan, and 7.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2X, 9.1X, and 7.8X [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. ethane net export volume is projected to increase by 14% in 2025 and by 16% in 2026 according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook [1] - Significant growth in U.S. ethane exports is driven by strong global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, enhanced export capacity, and the development of larger ethane transport vessels [1] - Expansion of U.S. ethane export infrastructure supports this growth, with Energy Transfer's new mixed export facility in Texas set to operate in Q2 2025, capable of exporting 250,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The expansion of U.S. ethane export capacity aims to meet the increasing global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, with China being the largest market, accounting for 47% of total exports in 2024 [2] - In Europe, INEOS's "Project One" ethylene cracker in Antwerp, Belgium, is scheduled to start production in Q3 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) has established a fleet of Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLEC) primarily operated through overseas shipowners, currently unaffected by relevant policies [1] Group 1 - The company has built a fleet of ethane transport vessels [1] - The operation of the fleet is mainly through overseas shipowners [1] - The company has exempted fees for long-term chartering of ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a fleet of ethane carriers (VLEC) and is currently not affected by the high docking fees imposed by the U.S. on Chinese vessels, as it primarily operates through overseas shipowners [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company operates a total of 14 VLEC vessels, with 12 built in South Korea and 2 in China [1] - The shipowners are Singapore's EPS and Malaysia's MISC, indicating a diversified operational base [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The company has stated that it is currently unaffected by the U.S. policy regarding high docking fees for Chinese vessels [1] - Long-term chartered ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers are exempt from these fees, which may benefit the company's operational costs [1]

Core Insights - The trade relationship between the US and Vietnam has become increasingly complicated, with Vietnam attempting to benefit from US tariffs on China but ultimately facing negative consequences [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A trade agreement was reached on July 2, 2025, imposing a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam while exempting Vietnamese exports to the US from tariffs [3]. - Vietnam will impose a 40% tariff on goods suspected of being transshipped from China to the US, significantly impacting its export economy [3][4]. - Prior to the agreement, Vietnam had a trade surplus of over $40 billion with the US, with approximately 30% of this surplus derived from transshipped Chinese goods [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Vietnam - The agreement is expected to severely disrupt Vietnam's supply chains, forcing a reevaluation of logistics and increasing operational costs for local businesses [4][6]. - Vietnamese manufacturers are experiencing a decline in orders as the new tariffs lead to a reduction in the flow of Chinese components and raw materials [6][9]. - Following the agreement, Vietnam's border trade with the US has decreased by 15%, and many factories are operating at only 80% capacity [9][11]. Group 3: US-China Relations and Strategic Shifts - Shortly after the agreement, the US made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on ethane exports and semiconductor design software, indicating a shift in US policy [6][7]. - The concessions suggest that the US is reassessing its trade strategies, which may undermine Vietnam's position as a middleman in US-China trade [7][9]. - The evolving dynamics highlight Vietnam's loss of strategic leverage, as its reliance on transshipment trade is diminishing [9][11]. Group 4: Regional Comparisons - Other countries like Japan, South Korea, and India are adopting more cautious approaches to US trade policies, focusing on maintaining their own economic interests [11]. - The future of Vietnam's economy may depend on its ability to repair relations with China amidst the shifting landscape of US-China trade relations [11].

Summary of ONEOK Fireside Chat - September 30, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) - **Industry**: Midstream Energy Key Points and Arguments Strategic Acquisitions - ONEOK has been highly acquisitive in the midstream space, doubling its size through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) since the early 2000s [2][3] - The company has established specific criteria for future acquisitions, focusing on projects that are credit accretive and provide scale [4][8] - Recent acquisitions include Magellan, Easton, EnLink, and Medallion, with five acquisitions completed in two years [5][4] Market Position and Integration - ONEOK is currently focused on integrating recent acquisitions and extending existing assets rather than pursuing new acquisitions aggressively [6][7] - The company aims to diversify its operations beyond the Bakken region, seeking demand-pull businesses [6][7] Volume Growth and Market Dynamics - The company anticipates modest volume growth across key basins, including Bakken, Mid Continent, and Permian, despite some winter-related volume declines [12][19] - The Mid Continent region has shown unexpected growth, particularly in the Cherokee formation [13][14] - The Permian Basin continues to grow, with producers becoming more efficient in drilling operations [20][21] Financial Outlook - ONEOK targets mid to upper single-digit growth in EBITDA for 2026, driven by volume growth and capital projects [23] - The company is completing several projects that will contribute to incremental growth, including the Denver expansion project [27][28] Risks and Market Sentiment - The primary risk to achieving growth targets is potential slowdowns in producer activity due to fluctuating crude oil prices [30][31] - There is skepticism in the market regarding the company's ability to model the impact of multiple acquisitions on earnings [10][11] New Projects and Infrastructure - The Sunbelt Connector project aims to address growing demand in Phoenix, with plans to connect refined products from various regions [33][34] - The company is optimistic about the returns from this project, which will include a larger pipeline to accommodate future demand [35][36] Capital Expenditure and Financial Strategy - ONEOK's growth capital expenditure (CapEx) is projected to remain around $3 billion, with expectations for a decrease in future years as projects are completed [40][42] - The company plans to utilize tax savings from new legislation to enhance cash flow and reduce leverage [42] Ethane Market and Export Opportunities - There is potential for increased ethane recovery in the Mid Continent region due to rising demand from export projects [47][49] - ONEOK is supportive of ethane export projects, recognizing their positive impact on pricing and demand [51][52] Natural Gas and LNG Demand - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing LNG demand, particularly in Louisiana, where it has seen unexpected growth in natural gas assets [55][56] - The Mid Continent region is viewed as an option for natural gas production, with expectations for increased activity as prices rise [57][58] Competition and Market Share - ONEOK holds a 60% market share in the Bakken for gas processing, with limited competition expected to impact its operations significantly [71][72] - The company maintains strong relationships with producers, which helps mitigate competitive risks [75] Additional Important Insights - The company is expanding its gas storage capabilities to manage increased gas flow and maintenance needs [66][68] - ONEOK's integrated systems provide a competitive advantage, allowing for streamlined operations and customer relationships [75]