Core Insights - The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure ahead of the MPOB report, raising concerns about whether Indian demand can offset inventory pressures [1] Group 1 - The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to open lower on Friday morning [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of Indian demand on the overall inventory situation [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may be tired of the previous weakening transactions and start new trades around the new marginal change of improved Indian demand and the continuous "buy oil, sell meal" in the US market. However, the current valuation is considered to have room to decline to provide a better long - position margin, so the market for palm oil is expected to be volatile. International soybean oil remains relatively strong, supporting the price of oils and fats. The short - term increase in soybean oil due to customs clearance sentiment lacks sustainability and may fluctuate downward [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Views and Logic - **Palm Oil**: After nearly two months of trading the game between strong current situation and weak expectations in the palm oil market, the market believed that the inventory - building story was temporarily fully traded. With the new variable of improved marginal demand in India, palm oil rebounded from the bottom and continued to rise sharply with the positive sentiment of US soybean oil. The palm oil 09 contract fell 3.00% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: In April, the soybean crushing operation was consistently lower than expected, leading to a significant reduction in soybean oil inventory. The tight international soybean oil situation and the continuous speculation of RVO expectations supported the international oil price. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.99% last week [1]. 2. This Week's Views and Logic - **Palm Oil** - The market has traded the expectations of inventory - building in Malaysia after April and the doubts about Indian demand for nearly two months, and the trading funds for this contradiction have become somewhat dull. When the Malaysian market was effectively supported at 4000 ringgit, the domestic market also rebounded. New trades are being carried out around the new marginal variable of improved Indian demand and the continuous "buy oil, sell meal" in the US market, giving palm oil short - term rebound momentum [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, Malaysia's palm oil production in April is expected to recover to over 1.55 million tons, and high - frequency data show that the production in the first 20 days increased by 16% - 20%, which may push the April production above 1.6 million tons. ITS export data has improved significantly, with exports expected to be over 1.2 million tons, and the inventory in April is expected to continue to increase to over 1.65 million tons [2]. - Indonesia's refining profit has continued to decline significantly. With the stable and rising CPO tender price, the recovery of Indonesia's supply may be a false proposition. The market's pricing expectations for palm oil still come from the复产 in the producing areas. From the rapid increase in the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia, Indonesia's production recovery may fall short of expectations [2]. - In the consumer areas, the widening of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, the less - than - expected export capacity of North America, and India's extremely low oil inventory ensure the consumption expectations of palm oil during the production - increasing season. The previous import demand for vegetable oils, especially palm oil, has been compressed to the limit, so the purchase and stocking of palm oil will start sooner or later [2]. - Overall, although there is a high probability of inventory - building in Malaysia from April to June, the inventory - building amplitude is not large, and Indonesia's inventory remains relatively tight. The B40 plan is expected to be fully completed. In this case, the soybean - palm oil price difference may face a correction. The market should observe the selling pressure in Indonesia, whether Malaysia's production recovers excessively, and India's subsequent purchasing willingness [2][4][5]. - **Soybean Oil** - Internationally, both the US and South American soybean oil inventories remain low. Funds continue to push up the oil - meal ratio in the US market based on the logic of "US first" and supporting US soybeans. Before the official confirmation of next year's blending obligation, this is difficult to disprove and may be hyped multiple times. If the US biodiesel operation is boosted by the optimistic expectations for next year, the international supply of soybean oil will gradually shift to palm oil. The market should pay attention to when the new South American soybean oil crop will put pressure on the price, and the weak performance of US soybean oil will at least occur when the biodiesel operation rate drops to a level that significantly affects the US soybean oil inventory [4]. - Domestically, the expected arrivals in May and June are over 11.5 million tons. If the operation is good, the soybean oil inventory will gradually increase from May to July but will decline after July, with more impact on soybean meal. Therefore, the short - term increase in soybean oil due to customs clearance sentiment lacks sustainability and may fluctuate downward. In the absence of more guidance on the weather of the new US soybean crop, there are few factors causing fluctuations in the fundamental market. The market needs to wait for changes in the sowing and growth situation of US soybeans, pay attention to subsequent weather - related speculations, and observe the arrival of selling pressure in the palm oil producing areas, the realization of weak expectations, and more certainties in the US soybean oil biodiesel sector [4][5]. 3. Disk Basic Market Data - **Prices and Price Changes**: The palm oil main - continuous contract rose 1.54%, the soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 3.47%, the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract rose 2.89%, the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract rose 1.53%, and the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 2.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to different extents. For example, the trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract increased by 1,580,948 hands, and the open interest increased by 59,058 hands [7]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between different varieties and contracts also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil 05 price difference increased by 15.89%, and the palm oil 5 - 9 price difference decreased by 24.89% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased by 1000 hands, the warehouse receipts of soybean oil increased by 2300 hands, and the warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil decreased by 157 hands [7]. 4. Core Data of Oil Fundamentals - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The production in April is expected to recover to over 1.55 million tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The ITS export data has improved significantly, with exports in April expected to be over 1.2 million tons, and the inventory is expected to reach over 1.65 million tons [2][11]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The refining profit has continued to decline significantly. The recovery of supply may be a false proposition, and the production recovery may fall short of expectations. The inventory in the first quarter is expected to rise slowly [2][12]. - **Indian Market**: The import profit of palm oil has improved rapidly, and the CNF price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has risen rapidly, increasing the import cost - effectiveness of palm oil [13]. - **European Union Market**: In 2025, the cumulative imports of palm oil and the four major oils and fats have decreased, with a cumulative decrease of 380,000 tons in palm oil imports and 640,000 tons in the four major oils and fats imports [13].