黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-07 市场情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游消费持稳，玻碱震荡上涨 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。纯碱厂库大幅增长，价格压 力显现。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，供给有所下降，伴随需求转弱，库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持 续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：硅铁电费影响，盘面快速拉涨 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅盘面小幅上涨，整体情绪有所好转。硅锰市场震荡运行，市场观望情 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-07 沙特连续第三个⽉下调对亚洲的OSP油 价，塑料反弹后基差⾛弱 原油价格交投震荡，市场权衡今年全球供应充足的预期以及美国抓捕 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后围绕委内瑞拉原油产量的不确定性影响。作为对 全球过剩的另一例证，1月6日沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调其对亚洲的旗 舰级原油的OSP价格，同步下调的还有销往包括美国和欧洲在内的所有其 他地区的所有等级原油的价格。委内瑞拉的局势仍略显动荡，据TankerTr ackers.com数据，自2026年初，16艘油轮无视美国封锁，从委内瑞拉启 航，其中许多船只为规避追踪而停止传输位置。委内未来原油生产和出口 完全恢复正常仍需时间。 板块逻辑： 周二又有更多的化工品出现反弹，3P和MA是主力品种。PVC的反弹仍 是在交易未来可能的用电成本增加，以及美国奥林VCM装置的短停；PP和P E更多的是主流生产商年底集中出货后，供应压力的略略缓解。这三个品 种的期货价格反弹后都出现了现货跟涨不力，基差走弱的格局。PP和PE整 体开工并未出现大幅下滑。甲醇的期货上涨有现货的同步跟随，一些内地 ...

对伊威胁叠加市场偏暖情绪下能化板块今 日偏强，但后续仍建议品种间分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反馈下开启日线级别回调，短期观 望等待回调结束后下一阶段多单进场机会。苯乙烯面临全产业链高库 存压力，下游 3S 利润快速下降，一、二月累库速率或超预期，若近 期出口商谈消息带来的 1 月出口增量被证伪，那么苯乙烯未来极高的 港口库存带来的胀库压力叠加终端需求疲软下游的负反馈螺旋将驱 动苯乙烯价格回落。可作为当前阶段重点关注的空头品种。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-06 市场谨慎观望，钢价震荡运行 单边：震荡 跨期：无 钢材：市场谨慎观望，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日盘面高开低走，钢材期货主力合约微跌。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，价格普遍下跌， 其中螺纹跌幅在10-20元/吨，热卷跌幅在20-30元/吨。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持低产量，低消费，低库存状态，因此价格波动率相对有限。考 虑到元旦之后建材将步入冬储行情，现实与预期博弈加剧，重点关注升贴水变化和钢材冬储情况。目前板材依旧 受制于高库存压制，价格边际波动有限，考虑到元旦后钢厂存在复产情况，短期板材库存压力尚难以化解，后期 关注钢厂复产情况。 策略 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、地产数据、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：全球发运回落，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格整体小幅上涨、贸易商报价随行 就市，钢厂采购意向偏低，多以刚需采购为主。本期全球铁矿石发运大幅回落，随着年末冲量结束，澳洲，巴西 发运量同步下降，非主流发运量明显减少，全球发运总量3214万吨，环 ...

1:玻璃主力合约日线 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 2 周持仓变化 成文日期: 20251230 报告周期:周报 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) E 隱 間 报 1 期货市场 玻璃期货价格跌至前低附近后,叠加减产预期,上周空头主力 主动减仓离场，从 12 月 24 日（周三）开始至周五连续三天小幅反 弹,价格从周二最低 1017 元/吨反弹至周五收盘 1057 元/吨,目前 玻璃多空驱动不足，期货行情或将延续相对低部区间震荡。 IVALUI 2605 合约截止 12 月 26 日（上周五），多单持仓 609514 手, 同上周增加 6210 手; 空单持仓 792345 手, 同上周增加 466 手｡ 3 现货市场 随着玻璃价格不断下行，上周三种燃料的生产利润均为负。12 月 19 日—12 月 25 日期间，天然气玻璃周均利润-186.4 元/吨，同上 周亏损增加 5 元/吨;煤制气浮法玻璃周均利润-21.88 元/吨,同上周 亏损增加 14.26 元/吨;石油焦浮法玻璃周均利润-7.21 元/吨,同上 周环比亏损增加 7.14 元/吨。 5 行情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. It analyzes the market trends, fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading suggestions for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Supply is marginally loose, with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand from PTA devices decreases. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation before the holiday, and attention should be paid to position management [5][8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Supply increases as some devices restart. Demand from polyester has a marginal decline but remains at a high level. PTA maintains de - stocking, which is beneficial to the performance of the monthly spread and basis [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory accumulates again, and the trend is still weak. Although there are some supply - side reduction expectations, the current inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change. However, considering the cost factors, the inventory accumulation expectation is marginally improved, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber shows a wide - range oscillation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and some tire enterprises have short - term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which has a certain impact on the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate [12][13]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber follows the decline of the commodity index. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [15][17]. 3.4 LLDPE - For LLDPE, the upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable. The raw material price rebounds, and the profit of the monomer link is compressed. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has some device changes. There is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [18][19]. 3.5 PP - PP is expected to have a stable and oscillating market. Multiple PDH devices are planned for maintenance in January. The cost side has some changes, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals have limited support at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side is weak, and the supply side has high - pressure due to high - start production in winter. The rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not reduce production, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January [24][26]. 3.7 Pulp - Pulp is in a weakly oscillating state. The price of imported pulp has increased in December, but the internal driving logic is differentiated. The overall demand is rigid, but the demand for different types of pulp varies. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [30][35]. 3.8 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has ups and downs, and the overall market trading flexibility has increased, but the shipment in most areas is still average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol oscillates with support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation. It oscillates repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - environment. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation [40][42]. 3.10 Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillating operation. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The driving force is neutral, and the 05 contract has support below. The upper and lower fundamental price limits are estimated [44][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for its price in 2026, but there are also risks such as high inventory of downstream products. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center of gravity throughout the year [48][51]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is weakly stable and oscillating, and the trading is light. The comprehensive production has decreased, and the downstream demand is not strong [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [54][55]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is in a weakly oscillating state. The valuation is at a low level, and although there may be phased rebounds, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side [63][64]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session volatility increases, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strongly oscillating state, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in high - level oscillation. The core issues for the 2602 contract include the freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and short on rallies in the medium - to - long term [69][82]. 3.17 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures price is in weak consolidation, the spot price is stable, and the sales are mostly weak. - **Bottle Chips**: It is in high - level oscillation. The upstream raw material futures price has decreased, and the factory price has been lowered. The market trading atmosphere is weak [84][85]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the scale paper mills' operating loads are basically stable, and the market new orders are few [87][88]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. The inventory in the East China port has increased, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026 and may rebound in the second quarter [92][93].

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12月26日盘中，菜籽粕期货主力合约震荡回升，最高上探至2403.00元。截止发稿，菜籽粕主力合约报 2396.00元，涨幅2.70%。 菜粕市场观望情绪浓厚，市场主体拿货心态普遍谨慎。当前行情呈震荡运行态势，后市走向尚未明朗， 下游企业以控制风险为首要原则，维持按需补库节奏；贸易端则以低量拿货、灵活周转为主。沿海油厂 菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，仓单压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进口多元 化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供应整体偏紧，库存压力缓 解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 大越期货：菜粕维持区间震荡 菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待 最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆 粕影响维持区间震荡。 中辉期货 菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主 大越期货 菜粕维持区间震荡 中辉期货：菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主 菜籽粕期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-23 市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游情绪谨慎，玻碱偏弱震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：现货报价坚挺，双硅盘面上行 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货整体维持上行，硅锰现货市场偏强运行，现货价格小幅上涨，6517北方市场价格5510-5 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/23 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7772 | 8414 | 8864 | 2741 | 2412 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 60 | 122 | 120 | 6 | 23 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.78% | 1.47% | -3.15% | 0.22% | 0.96% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...