供给边际收缩与库存压力并存，EG延续悲观情绪 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从9月30日的4207元/吨下跌至10月 9日的4158元/吨，跌幅1.16%，呈现连续五日震荡下行趋势；华东现货价格 同步下跌45元/吨至4230元/吨，期现基差从63元/吨大幅走扩至112元/吨， 期货贴水加深，反映现货市场短期支撑强于期货预期。跨期价差方面，1-5 价差小幅走弱至-77元/吨，近月合约承压明显。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量环比增长6.77%至33.53万手，成交量同步增 加6.35%至14.55万手，持仓与成交双增表明市场分歧加剧，空头资金在价 格下行中主动增仓。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率下降1个百分点至70.33%，其中油制装置开工 率降幅显著（-1.6个百分点至75.3%），煤制开工率维持62.95%不变，成本 压力下油制产能收缩对供给端形成边际支撑。 需求端 ：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端需 求未见明显改善，下游刚需采购为主，聚酯环节对乙二醇的消耗缺乏增量 驱动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存环比增加5.9万吨至48.57万吨，张家港库存单周激 增 ...

成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力，PX及PTA延续弱势运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月30日，PX 主力合约收6570.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.5%，基差 为-97.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4594.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.25%， 基差为6.0元/吨。 成本端，09月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.77美元/桶。WTI收63.18美元/ 桶。需求端，09月30日，轻纺城成交总量为1230.0万米，15 日平均成交为 865.67万米。 供给端 ：PX及PTA供应端整体呈宽松态势。PX基差持续走弱反映出当前现 货市场供应过剩压力，尽管近期国内部分PX装置出现短停检修，但整体开 工率仍维持在相对高位，供应压力难以有效缓解。PTA方面，加工费持续低 位导致工厂减产意愿增强，但高库存背景下部分装置降负仍不足扭转供需 格局，叠加未来新装置投产计划，供应压力将延续。 需求端 ：下游聚酯需求呈现边际转弱迹象。轻纺 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦价提涨落地 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 9 日 逻辑：国庆假日期间，煤焦市场整体稳中偏强运行，在下游补库的带 动下，焦炭在月初完成首轮提涨，捣固干熄焦上调幅度 55 元/吨，捣固湿 熄焦上调 50 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，焦炭首轮上涨落地后，焦企利润有所修复，多数焦企 保持正常生产节奏，产能利用率维持 75%左右。假期主产地市场运力稍有 影响，物流运输相对缓慢，但整体看，焦炭出货有序，并未出现阻滞现象。 钢厂开工保持相对高位，日均铁水产量维持 242 万吨左右，支撑原料需求。 炼焦煤市场总体较为稳定，存在个别矿点价格高位回调。数据显示， 当前煤矿端库存压力并不明显，支撑价格相对坚挺。进口煤消息 ...

消息面 9月30日，中天螺纹价格3230元/吨，根据市场统计口径，昨天出库5.40万吨，较上周同期增加1.40万 吨，杭州螺纹库存83.4万吨，较上周同期减少17.6万吨。 上海螺纹钢价格指数显示，9月1日价格为3178元/吨，之后整月呈现小幅震荡态势，到9月25日时，价格 为3196元/吨，整月价格最高点为3206元/吨，最低点为3139元/吨，最大振幅不足70元/吨。 据Mysteel调研，多数下游企业现金流环比改善有限，节前备货意愿较弱。考虑到国庆期间库存累积， 担忧节后去库缓慢，部分商家低价出货。同时，高炉铁水产量仍在高位运行，煤焦现货市场暂稳运行， 不过预期节后钢市供需压力加大，可能引发钢厂减产。短期来看，节前备货临近尾声，钢价或弱稳运 行、跌幅有限。 西南期货： 需求端，从长期来看，房地产行业的下行态势仍未逆转，螺纹钢需求仍处于同比下降态势；从中期来 看，9月份后市场逐步进入传统需求旺季，下游需求稍有好转。供应端，产能过剩的背景未改，但由于 钢厂盈利状况恶化，近期螺纹钢周产量环比下滑。当前，螺纹钢库存总量已明显高于去年同期，库存压 力明显上升。综合供需来看，螺纹钢价格中期弱势或难以改变。 截至9月 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 库存仍有压力，盘面维持震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-25，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于9035元/吨，最后收于9055元/吨，较前一日结算变化（65） 元/吨，变化（0.72）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓259965手，2025-09-25仓单总数为50066手，较前一日变化 141手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8900-9100（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8900-9100（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计9月25日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比持平。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较上周环 比持平，社会交割仓库42.3万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比持平。近期新疆地区部分工业硅货物 陆续向天津等地区转移，故不同地区之间库存变化大。国庆节前下游备货需求增加，仓库货物进出量较好。（不含 内蒙、 ...

甲醇 能源化工日报 2025-09-23 WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.92 美元，跌幅 1.45%，报 62.72 美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌 0.86 美元，跌幅 1.27%，报 66.66 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 4.20 元，跌幅 0.86%，报 485.8 元。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.39 百万桶至 213.76 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%； 汽油商业库存累库 0.63 百万桶至 91.39 百万桶，环比累库 0.69%；柴油商业库存累库 0.72 百 万桶至 103.95 百万桶，环比累库 0.70%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.35 百万桶至 195.34 百万 桶，环比累库 0.70%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，因而我们维持 OPEC 此举是 对市场进行压力测试的观点。当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静态基本面与动态预测仍表 现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，基本面将支撑当前价格，而如若地缘溢价重新打开， 则油价重获高度空间。 【行情资讯】 太仓价格跌 1 元/吨，内蒙下跌 20 元/吨，鲁南涨 10 元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a weak balance, with insufficient momentum for price rebound. It may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and if port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, the price may decline to the previous low. If inventory destocking starts, it is expected to drive a periodic price rebound [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching 4,297 yuan/ton on September 17, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market rose to 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 25 yuan to 83 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 61 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread turned to a premium of 20 yuan [2] - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 107 lots to 310,700 lots, and trading volume decreased by 17% to 124,900 lots, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 70.8%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants stable. Coal - based production continued to incur a loss of 402 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester plants was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, remaining flat for many days. Terminal restocking demand was dull [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 485,700 tons (a weekly increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, reaching a recent high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the main ethylene glycol futures contract price was 4,297 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis was 83 yuan/ton [5] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 41 yuan [5] - **Profits**: Coal - based production profit was - 402 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.8%, and the operating rates of various production methods remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 486,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 180,000 tons. The arrival volume was 101,700 tons, down 67,000 tons from the previous period [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,980 yuan/ton ex - works. The mainstream market was weak, but coal prices were firm [6] - On September 17, the mainstream market price was weak, while the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable, with a dull trading atmosphere at around 4,480 yuan/ton delivered [6] - On September 17, the crude oil market declined during the day, with unstable cost support. The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol were expected to weaken, and the market negotiation price declined, with the current East China price at around 4,360 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]