1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price increased overall, with a weekly fluctuation range of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. Due to frequent switching of news and the tense Middle - East situation, the price is in a high - level oscillation. The core contradiction lies in the game between "cost support brought by geopolitics" and "weak spot demand and inventory pressure". In the short term, the plastic futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the amplitude will still be large. The demand improvement space is limited [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price rose overall, with a weekly fluctuation of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. The HDPE film was reported at 9186 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week; the LDPE film was 10984 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the LLDPE film was 9070 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 76.24%, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous period. The domestic polyethylene supply decreased to 63.23 tons, a decrease of 3.17 tons from the previous period, mainly due to some device overhauls and tightened raw material supply. Next period, the overall production is expected to increase as some devices plan to restart while some new devices plan to be overhauled [3]. Downstream Demand - This week, the overall downstream industry's starting rate was 39.75%, an increase of 2.16% from last week. Although the demand showed a marginal improvement, it was still at a low level. The starting rate of PE packaging film and agricultural film increased, but the demand was still restricted. The demand of the packaging industry increased slightly by 3%, while that of the home appliance industry decreased by 2%, showing obvious demand differentiation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Geopolitical situation supports costs: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the confrontation between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, pushing up the cost curve of oil - based chemical products [5]. - Supply contraction expectation: Some domestic PE devices are under overhaul, and the supply is reduced due to production cuts in Middle - East oil fields and import obstacles, which supports the futures price [5]. - Marginal improvement in downstream demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has increased, and the replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises has risen during the decline of the futures price, which supports the price [5]. Negative Factors - Macroeconomic sentiment disturbance: The sharp rise in US bond yields has cooled the global risk appetite. The geopolitical news is full of long - short games, causing the plastic futures to fluctuate sharply and the previous gains to be partially reversed [5]. - Weak spot demand: Although the downstream starting rate has increased, the high - price raw materials have inhibited the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading has been weak [5]. - Inventory pressure: The overall inventory level is moderately high, the LLDPE inventory has not shown obvious destocking, and the inventory destocking pressure still exists [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continued supply contraction in China until April, the plastic futures are difficult to fall back to the pre - event level and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend. If the Middle - East situation eases, the previous risk premium will gradually be reversed. The downstream demand is expected to improve as the industry enters the peak season, but the inhibitory effect of high - price raw materials on demand needs attention [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][5] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [6] Core Views - Steel: The market sentiment is poor, and steel prices maintain an oscillatory trend. The current price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price shows relative strength in the short - term, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and negotiation progress [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the prices are oscillating. The coke market is supported by coking coal costs, and attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Thermal Coal: The demand is stable, and the coal price in the production area is running strongly. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3128 yuan/ton and 3305 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading is generally weak, with low - price trading being acceptable. The overall basis has slightly expanded, and the national building materials trading volume is 89110 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand of building materials has seasonally improved, and the inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The production and sales of plates have significantly improved, but the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the price. The price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong due to rising energy prices [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The spot trading volume at the main ports has decreased by 19.33% to 68.97 tons, while the trading volume of forward - looking spot has increased by 96.15% to 51 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume at 47 ports and 45 ports has slightly increased. The blast furnaces are being restarted as planned, and the molten iron output is rising. The port inventory is still at a historical high. In the short - term, the iron ore price is relatively strong, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. The coke spot market is supported by coking coal costs, but the terminal's high - price acceptance is weak, and the trading at the port has weakened. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at around 1160 - 1170 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area are resuming production steadily. The import of seaborne coal is tight due to the inverted price difference. The profit of coke by - products has increased, and the coke profit is at a good level. Attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The coal price in the main production areas is running strongly. The demand from metallurgy and chemical industries is good, and the price at the port and for external purchases has increased. The coal mine inventory is low, and the market sentiment is positive. The port market is also strong, with increased non - power demand and high arrival costs. The import coal market is also strong, with high costs [6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The downstream demand is good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Although the recent decline in copper prices is due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts, the report maintains a bullish outlook for copper in the medium term as it is a metal with increasing demand and limited supply [1] - Aluminum: In the short to medium term, overseas aluminum production losses are difficult to recover quickly, and there is still a risk premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Despite the average domestic fundamentals, limited long - term capital expenditure and supply disruptions from Iranian zinc mines are expected to support short - term zinc prices [2] - Nickel: With a weak short - term fundamental situation and supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [6] - Stainless Steel: Affected by the fundamentals and supply - side policies, stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and maintain a range - bound oscillation [10] - Lead: Under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [14] - Tin: The current tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin prices have strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens due to the US - Iran conflict, tin prices may decline significantly [17] - Industrial Silicon: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20][21] - Lithium Carbonate: In March, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the current warehouse receipt depletion speed and basis level [24] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices oscillated downward this week, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances [1] - **Supply**: Overseas, there are concerns about the US inventory siphoning ability, and South American shipments may change. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycled copper processing enterprises is slow, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, narrowing the refined - scrap spread [1] - **Outlook**: The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium term [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices showed a downward trend, and inventory remained unchanged. The external market was stronger than the domestic market, but the long - short spread in the internal and external market was at a high level, with a risk of correction [1] - **Supply**: A 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar suspended production cuts, and there is still a possibility of production capacity being affected by the US - Iran conflict [1] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short to medium term [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices declined, and inventory remained stable. The import window for zinc ore has not opened, and the domestic and imported TC is at a low level [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and downstream demand has recovered but with weak orders [2] - **Outlook**: Long - term capital investment is limited, and supply disruptions from Iran are expected to support short - term prices [2] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices decreased, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel weakened [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Pure nickel production decreased in February. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and domestic inventory is increasing while LME inventory is slightly decreasing [6] - **Outlook**: With supply - side policy intervention, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory decreased slightly this week [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill production decreased slightly, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost has increased [10] - **Outlook**: Affected by supply - side policies, it is expected to follow nickel prices and oscillate within a range [10] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices showed a weak trend, and inventory remained stable [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Primary lead production is resuming, and recycled lead production may resume in mid - March. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has accumulated [14] - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [14] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated downward, facing pressure due to liquidity issues [17] - **Supply**: Supply in Myanmar is expected to recover, and there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and Congo (Kinshasa) [17] - **Demand**: After the price decline, the willingness to replenish inventory is strong, and overseas consumption is flat. Inventory has increased at home and abroad [17] - **Outlook**: Tin prices are greatly affected by liquidity, with high upward and downward potential [17] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon showed some changes, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20] - **Supply and Demand**: Production is gradually recovering, with some potential production cuts in Yunnan. Supply and demand are approaching balance [20][21] - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices fluctuate with costs, and in the long term, they oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate prices decreased, and the basis and the number of warehouse receipts changed [24] - **Supply and Demand**: In March, supply and demand are in a tight balance, with a potential for inventory accumulation in the off - season [24] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the warehouse receipt depletion speed and basis level [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated and declined this week, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium term as it has demand growth and supply limitations [1]. - Aluminum: Qatar's 600,000 - ton aluminum plant suspended production cuts. With overseas capacity losses difficult to recover quickly and risk premiums remaining, it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Zinc: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iranian zinc mines are expected to support short - term zinc prices [2]. - Nickel: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, but with many supply - side disturbances and strengthened Indonesian nickel price control policies, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range due to supply - side policy intervention and weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead: With high profits and high开工 in primary lead production and weak terminal demand, lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated and declined this week. The supply side is in the process of recovery, and the price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens, the price may decline significantly [17]. - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are approaching a balanced state, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20]. - Lithium carbonate: In March, supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season, and the price's upward or downward breakthrough depends on specific factors [23]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 25, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 466, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,665 [1]. - **Market analysis**: This week, copper prices were affected by macro - geopolitics. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycling enterprises is slow, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further depletion of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 390, the domestic alumina price increased by 16, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market analysis**: Qatar's aluminum plant suspended production cuts, and logistics in the Middle East has partially recovered. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, but there is a risk of correction in long - position trading [1]. Zinc - **Price data**: From March 16 to March 18, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 670, the social inventory remained unchanged at 14.61 (unit not specified), and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Market analysis**: The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. However, long - term capital investment is limited, and supply disruptions from Iran are expected to support short - term prices [2]. Nickel - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained at 80.0, the price of Jinchuan spot decreased by 2,000.0, and the price of Russian nickel spot decreased by 2,050 [5]. - **Market analysis**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulating and LME inventory slightly decreasing. With many supply - side disturbances and strengthened Indonesian nickel price control policies, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 [10]. - **Market analysis**: The supply side has a slight decline in production, the demand side is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [10]. Lead - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the spot premium decreased by 5, the social inventory situation was not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Market analysis**: The primary lead production has high profits and high开工, while the terminal demand is weak, and the spot inventory has accumulated, compressing the supply space of recycled lead. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. Tin - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the spot import gain increased by 1,256.17, the tin position increased by 253, and the LME inventory increased by 220 [17]. - **Market analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated and declined this week. The supply side is in the process of recovery, and the price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. The future price trend depends on liquidity conditions [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 185.00, and the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 185.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 307 [19]. - **Market analysis**: The supply and demand are approaching a balanced state, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 2,500.00, the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 2,000.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 696 [23]. - **Market analysis**: In March, supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season, and the price's upward or downward breakthrough depends on specific factors [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a short - term balanced state [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The investment opportunities and trends of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as market supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies. Each metal has its own unique market situation and price movement characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's open interest increased and the price dropped to 98,000, with a slight rebound at the end. The market focuses on high global copper inventory and domestic consumption. The current trading sentiment is mainly affected by the war situation. The SMM copper price is 98,990 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 90 yuan and a Guangdong discount narrowing to 5 yuan/ton. Technically, pay attention to the resistance in the dense moving average area. Although the price decline is supported by spot buying interest, the uncertain war situation and high inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 or even the weekly line position [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanding. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and bars reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. Overseas low inventory and production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain intensify supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at historical highs. Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan under geopolitical risks. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilizes around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improves. The short - term market is affected by Guinea's mineral control policy, and the actual impact on mining and exports needs further attention [2] Zinc - The SMM 0 zinc price has a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. After the price breaks through the support, it seeks support at the 23,000 integer level. Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before the price can stabilize. The zinc concentrate inventory of smelters has increased, and the domestic ore TC has rebounded. Due to concerns about the tightening of macro - liquidity, zinc prices are under pressure. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season needs to be continuously tracked, and the annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, with a general direction of short - selling on rebounds [3] Aluminum - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the import window is continuously open, with overseas oversupply pressure being transmitted to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum rebounds, with the SMM 1 aluminum having a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the near - month contract and a scrap - to - primary aluminum price difference of 25 yuan/ton. The low - cost advantage of primary aluminum still suppresses the price. With recycled aluminum included in delivery, Shanghai aluminum moves towards a dual - pricing system of primary and recycled aluminum, and the price center of the futures contract is under pressure. The market is in a multi - and short - term game, and the price may fluctuate more during the process of finding a new price anchor. Pay attention to the opportunities of the end - of - cycle options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates in a narrow range with active trading. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The US dollar is at a one - year high with strong momentum. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel drops, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% increases by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The upstream price rebound drives the mid - stream price up and provides cost support. In the short term, it is mainly driven by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreases by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Pay attention to further changes in Indonesia's policy, and the overall trend is weak and volatile [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes down. The domestic spot tin price drops to 369,500 yuan, and the spot price has a significant premium over the 2604 contract after the contract month change. The domestic and foreign tin prices are under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot is in the direction of export, waiting for the specific import data of tin resources in the previous two months. It is expected that the tin price may continue to oscillate weakly towards 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices decline under pressure, and market trading volume decreases. The macro - environment is trading on the decline of interest - rate cut expectations and risk appetite. The downstream production situation is good, and iron - lithium enterprises are still actively producing. The total market inventory decreases by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, and the overall de - stocking speed slows down. The change in inventory structure is notable, with the decline of smelter inventory slowing down and traders' confidence in stockpiling weakening, leading to selling to downstream. In terms of production, the lithium carbonate production in early March has returned to a high level, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillates, and the fundamentals are stronger than expected. Consider going long on the near - month spread [8] Industrial Silicon - The decline of industrial silicon futures further expands. On the supply side, the weekly supply slightly rebounds. The production in the Southwest region is low, while the restart of leading enterprises in Xinjiang speeds up, and the operation in the Northwest main production area remains stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of silicone slightly rebounds, but downstream procurement is cautious, and price support is weak. The polysilicon market continues to weaken, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declines, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. The cost advantage caused by the previous geopolitical conflict gradually fades, and the market returns to fundamental - driven. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will maintain a weak and oscillating trend [9] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon drops significantly, and the market is pessimistic. In March, the resumption of work of some small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed due to the weak market. As the "export rush" window for downstream approaches, the support from battery orders weakens, and the price is under pressure. The silicon wafer segment also weakens. According to SMM data, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reaches 357,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons, at a stage high. Overall, the previous policy expectations have gradually declined, and the market returns to a weak fundamental pattern. In the short term, polysilicon futures will continue to operate weakly. Continuously track the stocking sentiment in the silicon wafer segment, and pay attention to the support around 40,000 yuan/ton on the futures contract [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper, believing it has demand growth and supply constraints. For aluminum, it suggests a strategy of buying on dips in the short - to - medium term. Zinc is expected to have some short - term price support. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to trade in a range. Lead is expected to have a weak and volatile price. Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity, with strong upward potential in a loose liquidity environment and large downward adjustment space in a tightened one. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs and in the long - term, cycle at the bottom. Lithium carbonate is in a tight balance in the short - term, with potential for inventory build - up in the off - season [1][2][5][9][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot price of Shanghai copper had a change of - 25, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 203, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7935, the spot import profit increased by 674.35, and the three - month import profit increased by 291.43 [1]. - **Market Situation**: This week, copper prices oscillated downward due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycling enterprises is slower than usual, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may drive the further reduction of refined copper inventory. The mid - term outlook for copper is bullish [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Guangdong aluminum ingot price decreased by 300, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum C - 3M increased by 2.17, the LME inventory decreased by 2475, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1475 [1]. - **Market Situation**: A 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar suspended production cuts. The logistics in the Middle East has partially recovered, but there is still a risk of capacity impact due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, but there is a risk of a callback in the long - position trading. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - to - medium term [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 12 to March 16, the spot premium changed by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 280, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 400, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The benchmark price for long - term contracts has increased, but the medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. However, limited long - term capital investment and supply disturbances from Iran are expected to support the short - term zinc price [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Jinchuan spot price decreased by 2650, the Russian nickel spot price decreased by 2700, the Jinchuan premium increased by 50, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 744, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 1098 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premiums are weak. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing. With supply - side policy intervention and weak fundamentals, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 200 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost has increased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Affected by supply - side policies and weak fundamentals, it is expected to follow the nickel price and trade in a range [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot premium changed by - 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, the 1 recycled lead price difference decreased by 25, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory increased by 75, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 100 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead production is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot import profit decreased by 25632.99, the spot export profit increased by 23971.97, the tin position decreased by 2446, the LME C - 3M decreased by 47, the LME inventory decreased by 60, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 65 [15]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the tin price oscillated downward. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. The demand for restocking is strong after the price decline, and both domestic and overseas inventories have increased. The tin price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **Market Situation**: Large factories have resumed production, and the supply and demand are approaching a balanced state. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to cycle at the bottom due to over - capacity [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 2500, the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 2500, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2500, the basis of the near - month contract decreased by 2500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10 [22]. - **Market Situation**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory build - up in the off - season. The upward price space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The Iran geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, with the sentiment spilling over to coal and iron ore, leading to an increase in coking coal prices and iron ore shipping costs. Market rumors of China restricting BHP's iron ore procurement and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream have tightened the tradable inventory at ports, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils pose pressure, and steel exports face resistance due to rising oil prices and RMB appreciation, limiting the short - term rebound height [3]. - Iron Ore: Spot liquidity has tightened, with BHP Newman powder added to the spot restriction list, prompting urgent transfers by steel mills and driving up prices. The steel fundamentals are weak, squeezing blast furnace profits. There are doubts about the sustainability of BHP's shipping gap to China, increasing the probability of a short - term reversal [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption phase, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in high supply pressure and intensifying the short - term oversupply of coking coal. The cost of coal for coke furnaces has loosened, slightly expanding coking profits, and rising chemical product prices have improved comprehensive profits, which may increase coke enterprise开工. From March to April is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has slowed down the resumption rhythm, and uncertainties in the Middle East route have suppressed steel exports. The black series as a whole faces significant downward pressure, and while there is support at the bottom for coking coal and coke, their upward elasticity is limited [30]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [48]. - Soda Ash: The daily output of soda ash has returned to a high of 117,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Current rigid demand is generally stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. Apart from the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and they may be driven by other sectors [62]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation for float glass continues, and daily melting is declining. However, high middle - stream inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be huge and the downstream may not be able to absorb it. There is also continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upward space for glass, and demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors should also be considered, as it may be affected and driven [85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,193 yuan/ton, up from 3,174 yuan/ton on March 12 [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed slightly. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread decreased from 54 to 51 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous day. For example, the summary price of rebar in China was 3,339 yuan/ton, up from 3,325 yuan/ton on March 12 [8]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) increased from 46 to 57 [8]. - **Other Ratios**: - The 01 volume - rebar ratio was 125 on both March 13 and March 12 [13]. - The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on both March 13 and March 12 [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 758.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - The basis of iron ore contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis was 38.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao increased compared to the previous day. For example, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: - The daily average pig iron output on March 13, 2026, was 221.2 tons, down 6.39 tons compared to March 6 [24]. - The 45 - port desilting volume was 317.9 tons, up 6.82 tons compared to March 6 [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: - The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 211.5 on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - The main coking profit on the futures market was - 31 yuan/ton on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [37]. - The import profits of different coking coal sources also changed. For example, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) was 303 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On March 12, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day [49]. - The silicon iron spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 5 [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - On March 13, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 74 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [50]. - The silicon manganese spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 6 [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,277 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 1.67% [63]. - The month - to - month spreads of soda ash contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 66 to - 58 [63]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the spot prices of heavy - soda ash and light - soda ash in various regions remained stable. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [63]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,112 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 3.35% [86]. - The month - to - month spreads of glass contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 117 to - 113 [86]. - **Sales**: - On March 12, 2026, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 145, 120, 116, and 119 respectively [87].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium term, believing it has incremental demand and limited supply, and can be bought and held [1] - In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to production disruptions in the Middle East, and there is still a driving force for long positions in the domestic and foreign markets [1] - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4][5] - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support [10][11] - Tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and bottom - oscillate cyclically in the long term [17] - Lithium carbonate is in a tight - balance state in March, with a risk of inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated and declined. Downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, but LME inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts led to the decline. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper increased, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1] Aluminum - Aluminum production in the Middle East was affected, with a 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar reducing production and the shipping of a Bahrain aluminum plant being blocked. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to rise, and there is a driving force for long positions in the domestic and foreign markets [1] Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the import window has not opened. The downstream demand has recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak, and the inventory has accumulated. Long - term capital investment is limited, and supply disruptions from Iran support short - term zinc prices [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has increased. The short - term fundamentals are weak. With policy intervention on the supply side, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] Stainless Steel - The steel mill's production decreased slightly. The downstream demand is recovering. The cost of nickel iron increased slightly, and the chromium iron price remained stable. The inventory increased seasonally. It is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead is expected to resume production in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11] Tin - Tin prices dropped significantly this week. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. The demand for restocking is strong after the price decline. Tin prices are greatly affected by macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - Some factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, prices are expected to bottom - oscillate cyclically [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight - balance state. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward and downward breakthroughs require specific conditions [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, despite recent price declines due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts. Copper is considered a metal with increasing demand and limited supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. There is still a driving force for the long - short spread between the domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, although the domestic fundamentals are average, due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and trade in a range, with a weak fundamental situation and supply - side policy interventions [8]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit support [11]. - Tin prices are highly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate in the long - term due to over - capacity [17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a tight balance in March, with potential inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward breakthrough requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disruptions, while the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. LME inventory expectations are high, and the North American delivery action is ongoing. The domestic refined - scrap copper spread has narrowed, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper by scrap copper has increased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the recovery of domestic recycled copper processing enterprises is slower than in previous years. The supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. The overseas supply is tightened, and the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The domestic bonded area inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of aluminum plants in Qatar and Bahrain has been affected. The supply in the Middle East is disrupted, and the external supply is tightened [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices have slightly declined. The domestic inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be tight in the medium - term. The import window has not opened. The downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices have fluctuated. The domestic inventory has continued to increase, and the LME inventory has slightly increased [3][4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel in February decreased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of nickel mines is expected to be tight throughout the year due to policy interventions in Indonesia [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices have remained stable. The inventory has seasonally increased this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost of nickel iron has slightly increased, and the cost of chrome iron has remained stable [8]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices have maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic inventory has increased [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead has recovered, and the production of recycled lead is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak [10][11]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices have significantly declined this week. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has fluctuated [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin in Wabang is expected to accelerate in the second quarter. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend, but the production of tin ingots in March may be reduced more than expected. The demand for replenishment is strong after the price decline [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs. The inventory has not changed significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some large factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still high [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices have increased. The inventory has slightly increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in May and June [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated higher, with a slight loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict initially led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a fall in global risk assets, but later, due to the G7's expectation to stabilize oil prices and Trump's statement, market panic subsided, and copper prices rebounded. However, there is still great uncertainty in the market's recovery due to the recurrence of the US - Iran conflict and the fundamental pressure of unexpected inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a cautious view of the later market and adopt a strategy of "buying in batches and allocating at low prices" [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the supply of alumina raw materials was blocked, and Iranian aluminum plants reduced production preventively. After the festival, northern manufacturers reduced production to cope with losses, and electrolytic aluminum plants made seasonal stockpiling. The increase in bauxite freight supported the cost of alumina, and the slight decrease in inventory led to a low - level recovery of alumina. The supply shock expectation and overseas low - inventory pressure of electrolytic aluminum conflicted with the weak domestic high - inventory reality. The geopolitical conflict is the current core focus, and the short - term trend of aluminum prices depends on the development of the conflict [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.11%, while Shanghai nickel rose 1.37%. Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a fatal landslide. Although the price of nickel ore is rising strongly, the weekly social inventory of primary nickel has increased significantly, showing great pressure. Considering the tightening of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia, the cost is rising, and there may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but there is also an expectation of supplementary quotas in July [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro aspect: The US - Iran conflict affected the market, but later the panic subsided. Inventory: LME inventory increased by 9,925 tons to 294,250 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,360 tons to 541,085 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons, and BC copper decreased by 624 tons to 13,630 tons. Demand: Downstream orders recovered, and the purchasing sentiment increased. Strategy: Be cautious about the later market and adopt a "buy in batches and allocate at low prices" strategy [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly overnight. Inventory: The inventory of alumina decreased slightly, and the supply shock of electrolytic aluminum coexisted with high domestic inventory. Factor: The geopolitical conflict is the main factor affecting short - term aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel fell, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 132 tons to 287,418 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 329 tons to 53,897 tons. Event: Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a landslide. Strategy: There may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but be aware of the inventory pressure and the expectation of supplementary quotas [3]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market price: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,480 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper increased by 30 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 17,000 tons [5]. Aluminum - Market price: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 15,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons [6]. Zinc - Market price: The main settlement price increased by 0.2%, and the spot price increased. Inventory: The social inventory increased by 4,700 tons [8]. Tin - Market price: The main settlement price decreased by 2.3%, and the spot price decreased by 19,000 yuan/ton. Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased by 590 tons [8]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [10][16][22][28][34][41].