Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Wuliangye [2][10][17] Core Insights - Wuliangye's 29th Distributor Conference emphasized "Consensus, Co-construction, and Shared Benefits," outlining strategies for long-term growth amid industry restructuring [3][12][13] - The company is focusing on three core strategies: restructuring manufacturer-retailer relationships, innovating pricing strategies, and enhancing internationalization efforts [3][13] - Wuliangye aims to increase its market penetration among younger consumers and expand its product offerings, particularly targeting banquet scenarios [4][14] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 744 billion, RMB 773 billion, and RMB 814 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 255 billion, RMB 261 billion, and RMB 273 billion [6][17] - The expected diluted EPS for the same period is RMB 6.6, RMB 6.7, and RMB 7.0 [6][17] - The target price has been adjusted from RMB 164 to RMB 161, reflecting a 24x PE for 2026 [6][17] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a shift from simultaneous volume and price growth to a focus on quality-price balance, with demand stratification expected to deepen [5][15] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for mid-tier products (RMB 1,000-1,500) and growth in the mass market (below RMB 300) [5][15]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a significant adjustment period, with a focus on stabilizing performance and exploring differentiated paths for growth [1][3][5] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The G50 conference highlighted the urgent need for the liquor industry to adapt to changing market conditions, including reduced traditional consumption scenarios such as banquets and gatherings, which have led to significant pressure on market movement and pricing [5][7] - Industry experts emphasized that the relationship between manufacturers and distributors is a critical issue that must be addressed to stabilize the supply chain and enhance value growth [7][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - The chairman of China National Grain and Oils Group Corporation and JiuGui Jiu Company, Gao Feng, outlined five areas of confidence for the company, including confidence in development fundamentals, regional advantages, cultural identity, product quality, and overall industry growth [8][10] - JiuGui Jiu aims to leverage its three core differentiated advantages—regional uniqueness, aromatic quality, and cultural heritage—to create a premium liquor brand that fosters collaboration among stakeholders [10][12] Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Recommendations for the industry include fostering integrated relationships between manufacturers and distributors, optimizing supply chains to be more consumer-centric, and expanding value chains to include diverse elements such as technology and information [7][8] - Distributors expressed confidence in JiuGui Jiu's unique production techniques and cultural significance, suggesting that further exploration of regional culture could unlock new growth opportunities [12]

Group 1 - Moutai will optimize the dealer assessment system, emphasizing the importance of identifying those who are actively engaging in the market [1] - The restructuring of the manufacturer-dealer relationship aims to eliminate "sitting merchants" who rely solely on channel profits and support "active merchants" who can take on social responsibilities and deepen regional engagement [1] - This initiative is expected to enhance dealer motivation, improve service quality, and expand Moutai's market share and competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye launched 17 new product series, covering various consumption scenarios such as banquets, gifts, collections, and staple liquor, indicating an upgrade in its product matrix [2] - By diversifying its product line, Wuliangye aims to meet the full lifecycle needs of consumers, thereby strengthening its market competitiveness and brand loyalty [2] Group 3 - Kuaizi Jiao reported a slight revenue increase of 0.89% for 2024, but a net profit decline of 3.83%, indicating potential issues with rising costs and aging product structure [3] - Mogaogong's revenue grew significantly by 65.38% in 2024, but it faced an expanded net loss, highlighting the need for operational optimization to achieve profitability [3]