曾经一酒难求的飞天茅台正经历价格"滑铁卢"。11月27日，据第三方平台"今日酒价"数据，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发 参考报价1590元，较前一日下跌10元，首次跌破1600元/瓶大关，创上市以来新低。原箱报1600元，较前一日下跌10元。两款产 品较上线时的2220元、2255元累计跌幅均已超过20%。 | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年11月27日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 今日行情 | | | 2 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1600 ↓ | | 2 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1600 | 1590 F | 更令人担忧的是行业整体数据的下滑。中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉在"2025冀酒高质量发展圆桌会"上透露，2025年1—6月，白 酒规上企业887家，同比减少100多家；产量191.59万千升，同比下降5.8%；销售收入3304.2亿元，同比微增0.19%；利润876.87 亿元，同比下降10.93%。 对价格持续下行的压力，茅台集团正在积极采取措施稳 ...

北京商报讯（记者刘一博冯若男）11月25日尾盘，沪指3870.02点上涨0.87%。白酒板块2254.47点收盘 上涨0.28%，其中12只白酒股上涨，酒鬼酒1.73%领涨白酒股。 （文章来源：北京商报） 银河证券在其研报中指出，今年白酒行业深度调整，第三季度以来供给端加速出清。展望2026年，研报 预计行业仍处于调整期，但逐渐步入筑底阶段，即动销与批价跌幅收窄+报表端继续出清，股票长期价 值凸显。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1444.65元/股，下跌0.51%；五粮液收盘价达118.51元/股，下跌0.01%； 山西汾酒收盘价达192.99元/股，上涨0.31%；泸州老窖收盘价达133.59元/股，上涨0.50%；洋河股份收 盘价达65.71元/股，下跌1.19%。 ...

中国银河证券表示，预计白酒行业仍处于调整周期，但逐渐步入筑底阶段。2025年白酒行业深度调整， 25年三季度以来供给端加速出清，头部品牌中仅茅台与汾酒实现正增长。展望2026年，我们预计行业仍 处于调整期，但逐渐步入筑底阶段，即动销与批价跌幅收窄+报表端继续出清，股票长期价值凸显。参 考上一轮调整期（2012-2015年）：第一阶段动销与批价加速下跌，酒企报表端开始出清，股价与估值 大幅下跌；第二阶段动销与批价跌幅收窄，酒企报表端持续出清，但此时市场预期已经较为充分，随着 资金面不断改善，股价在低估值背景下开始修复。 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with a notable decline in performance in the first three quarters of 2025, characterized by "volume shrinkage and profit reduction" [1][2] - The report highlights that 19 listed liquor companies experienced a revenue decline of 6.26% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 6.72%, with the profit decline outpacing revenue [1] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to overlapping challenges of policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intense competition [1][2] Industry Performance - The demand side of the white liquor market shows weak recovery in core consumption scenarios, leading to high inventory levels and price inversion, creating a threefold dilemma of high inventory, price inversion, and confidence erosion [1] - The performance decline is more pronounced this year compared to the previous year, indicating a deepening and widening trend in the industry's struggles [1] Market Segmentation - The report notes a growing disparity within the industry, where leading liquor companies can manage pressures due to their brand and channel advantages, while smaller companies face greater challenges in inventory management, price stabilization, and maintaining channel confidence [1][2] Strategic Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the current adjustment in the white liquor industry is not a short-term cyclical fluctuation but a necessary transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," requiring companies to adopt a long-term perspective [2] - Companies are advised to abandon short-term speculative thinking and focus on three core areas: destocking, price stabilization, and strengthening foundational capabilities to build resilience against risks [2]

Core Insights - The current liquor industry is undergoing an adjustment period, with overall weak performance in terminal prices for liquor [19] - The market share is expected to concentrate towards strong brands during this adjustment phase, indicating resilience among industry leaders [4][20] Price Dynamics - During this year's "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the price tag of 1499 yuan for Feitian Moutai frequently appeared, but this price does not reflect the actual market level, which is around 2000 yuan per bottle [3][6] - The average retail price for Feitian Moutai on November 11 was reported at 1835 yuan per bottle, with prices in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen averaging 1977.82 yuan [7][11] E-commerce Strategies - E-commerce platforms are using low-price tags as a marketing strategy, with actual prices for Feitian Moutai remaining above 1800 yuan [6][8] - The price discrepancies in e-commerce create challenges for consumers and provide opportunities for counterfeiters [9] Regional Market Insights - In Beijing, the price range for Feitian Moutai is between 1900 and 2400 yuan, with increased demand noted before "Double Eleven" [11] - In the Northeast market, prices for Feitian Moutai are stable, with scattered bottle prices between 1960 and 2080 yuan [12] - The Guangdong market is experiencing a surge in year-end orders, leading to increased inventory and stable prices around 1900 to 2400 yuan [14] Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing high inventory levels and price inversions, leading to weak performance in the first half of the year [19] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, which is essential for high-quality development [19] Strategic Initiatives - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce has proposed a shift from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle," emphasizing service-oriented strategies [16] - Moutai is enhancing its supply-demand alignment and optimizing distribution networks to reduce costs and improve market stability [17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 60.945 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 10.26% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 8.174 billion yuan, a drop of 52.66%, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% [2][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the deep adjustment period in the liquor industry and the slower-than-expected recovery in effective demand [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's total revenue was 60.945 billion yuan, with a net profit of 21.511 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 21.495 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.26% and 13.72% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 8.174 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.015 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 52.66% and 65.62% respectively [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The company is breaking the rigid constraints of its targets and entering an adjustment phase, which is expected to alleviate pressure on distributors and gradually reduce inventory [10]. - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 13.53 percentage points to 62.64% in Q3 2025, while the net profit margin fell by 9.31 percentage points to 24.7% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance as industry demand stabilizes, with projected EPS of 6.8 yuan and 6.97 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 times [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Jinhui Liquor (金徽酒), highlighting a decline in revenue and profit, high inventory levels, and the potential failure to meet annual targets, suggesting a need to return to the essence of business rather than relying on belief alone [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jinhui Liquor reported revenue of 2.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, and a net profit of 324 million yuan, down 2.78% [5]. - For Q3 alone, revenue was 546 million yuan, down 4.89%, and net profit plummeted 33.02% to 25.49 million yuan, marking the largest quarterly decline since its listing [5][6]. - The company set an ambitious annual target of 3.28 billion yuan in revenue and 408 million yuan in net profit, requiring Q4 performance to be 1.8 times the revenue and over 3 times the net profit of Q3 to meet these goals [6]. Market and Strategic Challenges - Jinhui Liquor's revenue from both domestic and provincial markets has declined, with provincial revenue at 1.689 billion yuan (down 2%) and provincial revenue at 533 million yuan (down 2.46%) [8]. - The company has seen a reduction of over 80 distributors, indicating a contraction in its national expansion efforts [8]. - The product structure is undergoing a "high-end pain," with high-end products (above 300 yuan) growing by 13.75%, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) saw a significant drop of 23.6% [8]. Governance and Internal Issues - The article raises concerns about governance issues within Jinhui Liquor, particularly regarding related party transactions and cash flow pressures [10][11]. - The company has been criticized for awarding contracts to a construction firm linked to its actual controller, raising questions about transparency and fairness [12][18]. - Jinhui Liquor's operating cash flow decreased by 18.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to lower sales revenue [18]. Industry Context - The article notes that Jinhui Liquor faces a "ceiling dilemma" in the industry, with limited growth potential in its home market and increased competition from national brands in provincial markets [19]. - The company is attempting to adapt by focusing on products priced above 100 yuan, enhancing digital marketing, and optimizing distributor structures [19][20].

Summary of the Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry is expected to reach a turning point around the second quarter of 2026, with stock prices typically responding ahead of fundamentals, indicating a current bottoming expectation for the sector, which presents good absolute return potential [1][4] - The industry has undergone six quarters of adjustment, likely to bottom out by the second quarter of 2026, with a subsequent recovery in income and stock prices anticipated [1][13][16] Key Insights and Arguments - The current market structure for Baijiu has significantly changed compared to the 2013-2016 cycle, with increased industry concentration and improved market management capabilities among leading companies [1][3][14] - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped to 1,650 RMB, which is equivalent to 34 bottles purchasable with the annual income of urban residents, indicating sufficient economic capacity for high-end Baijiu consumption [1][11] - The Baijiu sector is currently under pressure but is expected to enter a phase of recovery as new products and channels contribute to growth, creating a resonance effect between alpha and beta returns [1][5] Future Trends - The Baijiu industry is projected to see a recovery in revenue growth by the second quarter of 2026, with a potential for excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index [13][16] - The rise of sauce-flavored Baijiu and its increasing penetration rate are noted as significant trends, despite recent adjustments in this segment [14][15] Investment Recommendations - Companies are categorized into three main development lines: 1. Those that meet family demand and have competitive advantages in regional markets, such as Jinwei and Gujing [17] 2. Large enterprises with strong brand positions and operational capabilities, like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai [17] 3. Companies that innovate in products and channels, such as Shede and Li Du, which are exploring new growth points [17] Challenges and Opportunities - Current challenges include inventory buildup and downward pricing pressures across the industry, but a recovery in demand and normalization of inventory levels are expected to lead to a turning point in revenue stabilization [20] - The valuation of Baijiu companies is at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential once the market recovers, particularly for high-end products that remain in demand [19][21] Conclusion - The Baijiu industry is in a transitional phase, with expectations of recovery and growth in the coming years. The current low valuations present a favorable long-term investment opportunity as the market stabilizes and consumer demand rebounds [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor industry, particularly represented by Wuliangye, is experiencing a significant downturn, with alarming declines in revenue and profit, signaling a broader crisis in the sector [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Wuliangye reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.66%, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year, marking the worst performance in nearly 20 years [1] - The overall revenue and net profit of 19 A-share liquor companies fell to 317.658 billion yuan and 122.69 billion yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift from growth to decline [1] Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,700 yuan, while Wuliangye's core product "Eighth Generation Pu Wu" has seen its price fall from 950 yuan to between 820 and 855 yuan, reflecting a broader price war in the industry [2] - The demand in the high-end gift market is weakening, leading to significant sales declines during peak seasons like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Industry Trends - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward shift in price bands, with over 60% of companies facing inventory pressure, particularly in the 500-800 yuan price range [2] - Smaller and regional liquor companies are facing severe challenges, with companies like Kouzi Jiao and Jiu Gui Jiu reporting drastic profit declines, indicating a vicious cycle of falling prices and high inventory [2] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring, with stronger companies gaining market share while weaker ones may be eliminated or acquired [3] - The resolution of the current crisis hinges on improving supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on stabilizing and increasing prices of key products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Yingjia Gongjiu, a prominent player in the Anhui liquor industry, as it struggles with declining revenues and profits amid a broader industry adjustment period. The once-promising "Dingcang" series is now questioned for its ability to sustain the brand's growth in the next decade [2][3][12]. Financial Performance - Yingjia Gongjiu reported a revenue of 4.516 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 18.09%, and a net profit of 1.511 billion yuan, down 24.67% [5]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.356 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.76%, with net profit dropping nearly 39% [5]. - The company has experienced four consecutive quarters of declining revenue and net profit, making it unlikely to meet its annual targets of 7.6 billion yuan in revenue and 2.62 billion yuan in net profit [6][11]. Market Dynamics - The "Dingcang" series has supported Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue base but has not been sufficient to drive brand premiumization and national expansion [3][8]. - The company’s core revenue still heavily relies on mid-to-high-end products, which generated 3.55 billion yuan, down 16.4% from the previous year [9]. - The company has faced challenges in expanding its market presence outside Anhui, with a net decrease in provincial distributors [10]. Cost and Cash Flow Management - Yingjia Gongjiu has increased its sales expenses by 10.32% to 478 million yuan, reflecting a rise in promotional spending due to competitive pressures [6]. - The net cash flow from operating activities fell by 38.13% to 789 million yuan, primarily due to reduced sales collections [6][11]. - The company has also reduced R&D expenses by 28.59%, which may improve short-term financial performance but could hinder future product innovation [7]. Inventory and Asset Management - The company's inventory increased from 5.043 billion yuan at the end of the previous year to 5.105 billion yuan, indicating slower sales and incomplete channel destocking [11]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is selling non-core assets to improve cash flow, such as the planned transfer of its hotel business for 31.7265 million yuan [11]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment after a decade of rapid growth, with a notable imbalance in supply and demand for mid-to-high-end products [14]. - The article suggests that the future success of Yingjia Gongjiu will depend on stabilizing its market share in Anhui, optimizing its product structure, and reigniting growth in provincial markets [14]. - Analysts indicate that the brand is facing a "middle-class trap," where its brand strength is insufficient to support price upgrades while being squeezed by leading national brands [13][14].