一、行情 12月15日，白酒板块迎来局部走强。中锐股份2连板，皇台酒业涨停，酒鬼酒、金徽酒、金种子酒、迎驾贡酒等大涨。 3）弱需求背景下，头部酒企供给端动作成为关键催化剂，茅台控量政策直接缓解渠道抛压，带动批价企稳回升，进而修复市场对行业价格体系的信 心。中央经济工作会议首次提出清理消费领域不合理限制，有望纠偏过度禁酒约束，稳固高端白酒需求基本面。行业库存已进入去化阶段，当前渠道 库存结构分化，消费者及下游渠道库存占比低，为后续动销改善预留空间。产业链方面，白酒行业向上游延伸至粮食种植、包装材料等领域，向下覆 盖经销商、终端烟酒店等渠道，头部企业通过赋能渠道、优化产品结构，有望在行业出清过程中抢占更多市场份额。（中信建投证券） *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | 股票名称 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 换手率; | 流通市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中锐股份 002374.SZ | | 2 连板 | | | | 全资子公司贵宴樽酒业是一家综合性的酒类无界零售品牌运营公司，致力于为高品位客户 | 4.04 | +10.08% | 8.85% | ...

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - 35 stocks were listed on the institutional leaderboard today, with 15 stocks seeing net buying and 20 stocks experiencing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were Yongtai Technology (CNY 438 million), Tianji Shares (CNY 210 million), and Wanrun Technology (CNY 163 million) [1] Group 2: Storage Industry Insights - NAND flash contract prices surged by 50% in November, driven by SanDisk's price increase, causing disruptions in the storage supply chain [3] - Major manufacturers like Transcend and Apacer have paused shipments to reassess pricing due to expectations of further price increases [3] - The global NAND Flash bit demand is projected to exceed 200EB by 2026, with AI driving increased storage needs across various data types [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector Trends - The popularity of "milk skin candy hawthorn" has surged, leading to long queues and high prices in cities like Shanghai, indicating a trend in consumer behavior [5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in CPI for October, with core CPI rising to its highest level since March 2024 [5] - Analysts suggest that the need to expand domestic demand is becoming more critical, with expectations for increased fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment in 2026 [5]

Group 1 - The event "Nanjing Autumn Sugar" will take place from October 16 to 18 at the Nanjing International Expo Center, featuring numerous brands such as COFCO, Mengniu, and others showcasing new products [1] - The "Suo Chao" viewing carnival attracted a large crowd, with approximately 2,500 visitors at the event, and low-temperature product sales exceeding 1,000 yuan [1] - The carnival provided an engaging experience for attendees, combining sports excitement with food and beverage tasting, enhancing the overall enjoyment of the event [1] Group 2 - The "pre-experience + data feedback" model allows companies to leverage the foot traffic from the "Suo Chao" event to enhance brand exposure, promote immediate sales, and gather real-time consumer feedback on new products [2] - This approach is seen as an efficient pathway for converting traffic into sales, optimizing strategies for the upcoming "Nanjing Autumn Sugar" exhibition [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over two consecutive trading days on August 19 and August 20, 2025 [1] - The company's board of directors conducted a verification regarding the abnormal stock trading, confirming that there are no undisclosed significant information or major matters in planning that could impact the stock price [1][1] - The board also stated that there are no matters that should have been disclosed according to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing rules that have not been disclosed, and previous disclosures do not require correction or supplementation [1][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a significant adjustment period, with a focus on stabilizing performance and exploring differentiated paths for growth [1][3][5] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The G50 conference highlighted the urgent need for the liquor industry to adapt to changing market conditions, including reduced traditional consumption scenarios such as banquets and gatherings, which have led to significant pressure on market movement and pricing [5][7] - Industry experts emphasized that the relationship between manufacturers and distributors is a critical issue that must be addressed to stabilize the supply chain and enhance value growth [7][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - The chairman of China National Grain and Oils Group Corporation and JiuGui Jiu Company, Gao Feng, outlined five areas of confidence for the company, including confidence in development fundamentals, regional advantages, cultural identity, product quality, and overall industry growth [8][10] - JiuGui Jiu aims to leverage its three core differentiated advantages—regional uniqueness, aromatic quality, and cultural heritage—to create a premium liquor brand that fosters collaboration among stakeholders [10][12] Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Recommendations for the industry include fostering integrated relationships between manufacturers and distributors, optimizing supply chains to be more consumer-centric, and expanding value chains to include diverse elements such as technology and information [7][8] - Distributors expressed confidence in JiuGui Jiu's unique production techniques and cultural significance, suggesting that further exploration of regional culture could unlock new growth opportunities [12]