证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 酒鬼酒 (000799.SZ) 投资评级 无评级 上次评级 [Table_A 赵丹晨 uthor 食品饮料] 行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080005 邮 箱： zhaodanchen@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 经营筑底，渠道创新 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：公司公告 ummary]，2025 年上半年实现营收 5.61 亿元，同比减少 43.54%；归母 净利润 0.09 亿元，同比减少 92.6%；销售收现 6.85 亿元，同比减少 40.67%； 经营净现金流-2.34 亿元，同比减少 12.23%；期末合同负债 1.35 亿元，环比减 少 0.44 亿元。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ...

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Jiu Gui Jiu is 47.40 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 218 million yuan [1] - The stock price fluctuated between 47.06 yuan and 47.59 yuan during the day, with a turnover rate of 1.42% [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu is a well-known liquor company in Hunan, primarily producing fragrant liquor and owning brands such as Nei Can, Jiu Gui, and Xiang Quan [1] Group 2 - The company has a total market capitalization of 15.402 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 121.41 times [1] - Recent investor relations activities revealed that the company faced performance pressure in the first half of the year due to intensified competition during the industry adjustment period [1] - To adapt to market changes, the company has initiated a "two low and one small" product strategy, focusing on low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small-sized products [1] Group 3 - The company plans to support its mid-to-low-end product lines through capacity release and introduce new low-alcohol products targeting younger consumers [1] - On the funding side, Jiu Gui Jiu experienced a net outflow of 4.0269 million yuan in main funds on the day, with a cumulative net outflow of 125 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, leading to significant performance pressure on liquor companies, particularly for JiuGuiJiu, which has reported a substantial decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - JiuGuiJiu expects revenue of approximately 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 43% [1][2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, representing a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 already showed a downward trend, with revenue of 344 million yuan, down 30.34%, and a net profit of 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% [3]. - The first half of 2024 had a revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5%, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with increased pressure on operations, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][4]. - JiuGuiJiu's performance has been declining sharply since 2023, with a reported revenue of approximately 2.83 billion yuan in 2023, down 30.14%, and a net profit of about 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [8]. - In 2024, the company continued to see significant contraction, with revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, down 49.70%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [8]. Company Challenges - JiuGuiJiu's geographical limitations are evident, with 45.11% of revenue coming from Hunan province [9]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with online sales only reaching 186 million yuan compared to 1.229 billion yuan from offline channels in 2024 [9]. - The number of distributors has decreased significantly, from 1,774 at the end of 2023 to 1,336 by the end of 2024, indicating a contraction in sales channels [10].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a significant adjustment period, with a focus on stabilizing performance and exploring differentiated paths for growth [1][3][5] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The G50 conference highlighted the urgent need for the liquor industry to adapt to changing market conditions, including reduced traditional consumption scenarios such as banquets and gatherings, which have led to significant pressure on market movement and pricing [5][7] - Industry experts emphasized that the relationship between manufacturers and distributors is a critical issue that must be addressed to stabilize the supply chain and enhance value growth [7][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - The chairman of China National Grain and Oils Group Corporation and JiuGui Jiu Company, Gao Feng, outlined five areas of confidence for the company, including confidence in development fundamentals, regional advantages, cultural identity, product quality, and overall industry growth [8][10] - JiuGui Jiu aims to leverage its three core differentiated advantages—regional uniqueness, aromatic quality, and cultural heritage—to create a premium liquor brand that fosters collaboration among stakeholders [10][12] Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Recommendations for the industry include fostering integrated relationships between manufacturers and distributors, optimizing supply chains to be more consumer-centric, and expanding value chains to include diverse elements such as technology and information [7][8] - Distributors expressed confidence in JiuGui Jiu's unique production techniques and cultural significance, suggesting that further exploration of regional culture could unlock new growth opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in its operational performance, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, attributed to both internal and external factors [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue decline of 49.7% and a net profit decline of 97.7% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is currently undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on enhancing product appeal through a differentiated product strategy, which includes low-end, low-alcohol, and small-sized products [2][4]. Group 2: External Factors - The external challenges include unfavorable consumer sentiment, intensified competition within the industry, and weakened channel confidence, all contributing to a difficult market environment [5][6]. - The white liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment phase, impacting overall market conditions [6]. Group 3: Internal Factors - The company is in a phase of accumulating new momentum during its strategic transformation, transitioning from quantitative growth to qualitative improvement [4][6]. - The company has seen a significant increase in national business unit coverage by 26 percentage points and a doubling of customer numbers in previous years, which had previously driven rapid performance growth [6]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus from national expansion to deepening its presence in its home market, emphasizing the importance of solidifying the foundational market before pursuing broader growth [7]. - The company aims to balance maintaining high-end product pricing stability with market acceptance, while also enhancing the value proposition of low-end products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing a significant decline in performance, with a 49.7% drop in revenue and a 97.72% decrease in net profit for 2024, primarily due to the poor performance of its high-end product line, "Neican Series" [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue fell to 1.423 billion yuan, and net profit dropped to 12.49 million yuan, marking the lowest levels since 2015 [1] - The "Neican Series" revenue plummeted from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 to 235 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 67.06%, with gross margin decreasing from 91.63% to 87.71% [1] Group 2: Inventory Issues - Despite claims of over 100% distribution and sales rates, investors are skeptical about the actual inventory reduction, which is reported to be less than 5% [2] - The company maintains high finished goods inventory levels to ensure "reasonable stocking" for sales, reflecting a lack of confidence in the distribution channels [2] Group 3: Distributor Reduction - The number of distributors decreased from 1,774 to 1,336 in 2024, as the company aims to improve distributor quality by eliminating inefficient clients [3] - This strategy has caused short-term channel disruptions but is intended to optimize the distribution structure and focus on core markets [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is shifting from aggressive national expansion to a "focus strategy," pausing production capacity expansion and reducing SKU by 50% to streamline operations [4] - The focus will be on the Hunan market and select external markets, abandoning low-return areas like Beijing and Shanghai [4] Group 5: Industry Context - The company's challenges reflect broader issues faced by regional liquor companies during a period of industry adjustment, including high-end market difficulties and channel instability [5] - The management's focus strategy aims to establish a stronghold in the Hunan market, where the current market share is approximately 15% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of JiuGuiJiu Co., Ltd. has significantly declined over the past two years, with net profit dropping from 1.049 billion yuan in 2022 to 12.4933 million yuan in 2024, raising concerns about the company's future [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, JiuGuiJiu reported revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.4933 million yuan, down 97.72% year-on-year [3] - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue and net profit falling by 30.34% and 56.78% respectively [2][3] Product Performance - The "JiuGui" series accounted for nearly 60% of revenue in 2024, generating 835 million yuan, a decline of 49.32% [4] - The high-end "NeiCan" series saw revenue drop to 235 million yuan, a decrease of 67.06%, with its revenue share falling from 25.27% in 2023 to 16.55% in 2024 [4] Market Challenges - The rapid expansion of distribution channels has led to inventory buildup, causing the "NeiCan" series to struggle with sales and pricing issues since 2023 [5] - The overall demand for high-end liquor has decreased, and competition has intensified, impacting the sales of the "NeiCan" series [6][9] Strategic Adjustments - JiuGuiJiu plans to reduce its SKU by 50% to streamline its product offerings and focus on high-potential items [10] - The company is also exploring the introduction of smaller packaging products to target the mass market [11] Management Changes - Since 2024, JiuGuiJiu has experienced frequent changes in its management team, including the appointment of a new chairman and the resignation of key executives [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in its performance during the adjustment period, with projected revenues and net profits for 2024 at 1.423 billion and 12.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 49.70% and 97.72% [1][4]. - The company is anticipated to focus its resources on its core market in 2025, which may lead to a breakthrough in performance [2]. - The report indicates a decline in gross margin and net margin due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin products, particularly the "Neican" series [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 1.423 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 49.70%. The net profit is expected to be 12.49 million, down 97.72% [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease to 71.37%, a drop of 6.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at 0.88%, down 18.48 percentage points [3]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted at 22.01 million, significantly lower than previous years [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of 1.252 billion, representing a 12.03% decline from 2024, and net profit is expected to rise to 112.39 million, a significant increase of 799.64% [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 122X, 84X, and 64X respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decrease in sales volume and price for the company's products in 2024, with the liquor sales volume and price dropping by 32.98% and 25.17% respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 438 to 1,336, with the average distributor scale declining by 33.41% to 1.0588 million per distributor, contributing to the revenue decline [2].

Production Capacity and Inventory - The company's current production capacity is 15,000 tons, with an additional 7,800 tons expected after the completion of the Phase II project [2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's base liquor inventory stands at 46,769 tons [2] Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The company is implementing a differentiation and focus strategy to navigate the dual adjustment period in the industry and internally [3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through unique products, regional characteristics, and cultural aspects [3] - The company is focusing on the Hunan market and model markets, emphasizing core products [3] Financial Performance and Sales Strategy - In 2024, the company achieved revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, with efforts to enhance sales quality and brand strength [3] - The company has seen a significant increase in terminal sales and consumer engagement, with distribution and sales rates exceeding 100% in 2024 [4] - The company plans to maintain a focus on high-quality sales and improve brand, product, channel, and system capabilities [4] Product Line and Market Adaptation - The company has reduced its SKU by 50% to eliminate low-efficiency products and is developing new products based on market demand [5] - The company is actively working to stabilize product prices through dynamic inventory management and targeted promotions [5] Distributor Management and Market Expansion - In 2024, the company reduced its number of distributors by over 400, focusing on improving distributor quality [5] - The company is expanding its presence in the small liquor market to cater to diverse consumer needs [6] Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by the current industry adjustment, which has intensified competition [6] - The company is committed to leveraging its unique advantages to establish itself as a differentiated premium liquor brand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance sales quality through a focus on brand, product, channel, and system capabilities for the year 2025 [2] Group 1: Brand Strategy - The company is building a differentiated barrier by focusing on "culture + production area" to enhance brand strength and highlight its unique characteristics [2] - The product value chain is being streamlined, with a strategic product matrix of "2+2+2" to upgrade its offerings [2] Group 2: Production Capacity - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons, with an additional 7,800 tons expected from the Phase II project of the production area [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company will have a base liquor inventory of 46,769 tons, ensuring high-quality products through the use of different aged base liquors [3] Group 3: Channel Development - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its distributors, with some low-efficiency distributors not having their contracts renewed [3] - The marketing model and expense reforms implemented from 2022 to 2024 have led to significant improvements in sales metrics, with consumer sales exceeding distributor purchases [3] Group 4: New Product Launch - The company launched the "Miao Pin" product in Hebei, targeting a price range of 300 to 400 yuan per bottle, with plans to expand to 30 cities nationwide [3] Group 5: System Efficiency - The company has begun to see results from its system construction, allowing for precise expense allocation and dynamic inventory management to stabilize product prices [4]