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油脂油料早报-20250508
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 annual Canadian canola production is expected to rebound to 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, despite a 3.5% reduction in planting area and adverse summer weather prospects in the southern prairies [1]. - Indonesia's 2024/25 annual palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, remaining the same as the previous estimate, with the post - Eid al - Fitr harvest resumption having a positive impact [1]. - Malaysia's 2024/25 annual palm oil production is expected to be 19 million tons, revised up by less than 1%, supported by a rebound in crop yields, with many producers reporting a 20 - 30% production rebound in April compared to March [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Canadian Canola - The total canola planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year and a 1.9% decrease from StatCan's March 12 forecast [1]. - The main reason for the expected reduction in canola area is its weaker competitiveness compared to other grains and oilseeds due to higher production costs and more nitrogen fertilizer requirements [1]. - Since a certain month, soil moisture in major producing areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at a six - year low, while Alberta's soil moisture is still healthy [1]. - The summer weather outlook from July to August indicates higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal rainfall in the southern prairies, which may put downward pressure on yields [1]. Indonesian Palm Oil - The 2024/25 annual palm oil production estimate ranges from 43.8 million to 53.8 million tons [1]. - In April, there were local floods in some areas such as Riau, Lampung, East Kalimantan, and Central Kalimantan, but the impact on overall crop recovery is expected to be limited [1]. - In the next 15 days, most areas are expected to have near - or slightly above - normal rainfall, with 20 - 70 mm more than normal in East, North, and South Kalimantan [1]. - A neutral ENSO trend is expected to last from July to August, bringing sufficient rainfall and potentially benefiting palm oil production if floods are avoided [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - The 2024/25 annual palm oil production estimate ranges from 18.5 million to 19.5 million tons, with a significant seasonal increase in both Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia [1]. - More favorable weather conditions and increased harvesting after workers returned from the holiday season supported the production growth [1]. - In April, rainfall patterns varied across Malaysia, with floods in some parts of Selangor due to heavy rainfall in the central Peninsular Malaysia, but the impact was local and did not seriously disrupt the overall production [1]. - Palm - growing areas are expected to have near - or slightly above - normal rainfall in the next 15 days, supporting harvesting and farm work [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 28 to May 7, 2025, are presented in a table, showing fluctuations during this period [2]