南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产区降雨稍有好转但整体有限，关注马来半岛干旱情况 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象已经形成，至26年年初，其强度持续偏弱， 东南亚整体降雨并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。南方涛动指数逐渐向0轴回归，拉尼娜或接近 尾声。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨量依旧偏少。马来半岛几乎无降水，东马零星降雨为主，印尼的卡里曼丹岛 降雨量稍多，苏门答腊岛及周边地区降雨也有限。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，且进入2月后干旱或进一步扩散，3月甚至整个马来半岛 均呈现干旱态势，沙巴和沙捞越地区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰；印尼本周卡里曼 丹岛及占碑地区有降雨，但廖内及北苏门答腊地区土壤湿度递减，如2、3月降雨无改善可能也有干旱风险。 ...

2026年1月22日早盘，A股石油产业链全线走强，多只个股开盘快速拉升涨停。蓝焰控股在约2分钟内直 线涨停，洲际油气、胜利股份、中泰股份等多股涨停或涨超10%。 Wind实时监测数据显示，石油石化行业早间获得逾26亿元主力资金净流入，其中洲际油气、中国海 油、中国石化等8股获得超亿元主力资金净流入。 欧佩克日前发表声明称，受季节性因素影响，决定在2026年2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月 及2026年1月保持一致，后续将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 国金证券称，拉尼娜现象发生概率提升，或导致冬季北半球气温骤降，当前欧洲天然气库存处于中位水 平，若出现冷冬或推升天然气价格，建议关注上游天然气生产相关标的。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 寒潮成为本次行情核心驱动因素之一。美国寒潮推升天然气期货价格暴涨，隔夜NYMEX天然气价格飙 升逾29%，当日早间继续攀升，截至发稿再度上涨逾9%，近4个交易日合计大涨逾72%。据美国国家气 象局最新消息，已对多地发布"危及生命的严寒"警告。一股来自加拿大的极地寒流正快速南下 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The company maintains a tight outlook for the US natural gas market in 2026, expecting NYMEX gas prices to rise to a seasonal fluctuation range of $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) [1] - Despite a warm winter in Europe, low natural gas inventories will support global LNG market replenishment demand, with expectations for the Dutch TTF gas price to decrease to a range of $9-10 per MMBtu in 2026 [1][5] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts of summer hurricanes on oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico [1] Group 2: Climate Impact on Commodity Markets - The company identifies climate shocks as a significant risk embedded in global supply chains, with the La Niña phenomenon re-emerging and a 60% probability of El Niño occurring later in the year [3][4] - The interplay of climate uncertainty and human policy constraints, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and local production requirements in the US, is expected to create a new phase of "risk nesting" in the commodity market by 2026 [3] Group 3: Weather's Influence on Different Commodity Sectors - In the energy sector, temperature is the core driver, with US natural gas inventories lower than the five-year average, providing a favorable condition for price increases [5] - For non-ferrous metals, heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, affecting costs and supply [6][7] - In the agricultural sector, weather conditions directly impact crop yields, with Brazil's soybean production expected to remain strong despite La Niña, while palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to high inventory levels and Ramadan demand [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of extreme weather events on various commodity markets, particularly focusing on agricultural products, natural gas, and metals due to the ongoing weak La Niña phenomenon and its expected transition to neutral conditions by March 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Weather Patterns and Their Impacts - The weak La Niña event is expected to end in March 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions, with a rising probability of El Niño starting in July 2026, reaching nearly 60% by November [1][4]. - Global warming is anticipated to prevent widespread cold winters, although localized cold spells may occur [2]. - The solar cycle's downward trend may increase the risk of extreme weather events over the next three to five years, with frequent switches between La Niña and El Niño phenomena [2]. Agricultural Market Impacts - **Soybeans**: Increased expectations for South American soybean production, with U.S. soybean prices projected to remain between 1,000 and 1,150 cents per bushel, unlikely to break the upper limit [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Minimal impact from weak La Niña on palm oil production, with Malaysian production recovering. Short-term bullish outlook for palm oil prices in the first half of 2026, but potential reductions in palm fruit production could occur if a strong El Niño develops [1][5]. - **Wheat**: Delayed sowing in domestic wheat may lead to growth pressures, with increased risks of cold spells and spring droughts. This could elevate new wheat prices in April-May 2026, potentially resonating with corn prices, which are expected to trend upward [1][5]. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The U.S. natural gas market is influenced by temperature fluctuations, with November 2026 expected to be cold but warming in December, leading to significant consumption volatility [6]. - European natural gas inventories are low, with actual consumption showing a year-on-year decline, leading to downward pressure on prices [6]. - A global LNG supply increase is anticipated in 2026, with new projects in the U.S. and Qatar expected to support U.S. natural gas markets [3][7]. Metal Markets and Weather Effects - The La Niña phenomenon is affecting black metal markets through supply and demand dynamics. Warmer winters are reducing heating and electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal prices [9]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments are expected to continue increasing, exerting pressure on iron ore prices [9]. - The impact of extreme weather on non-ferrous metals includes risks from heavy rainfall and drought, affecting mining operations in regions like Indonesia and Chile [10]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to neutral weather conditions post-March 2026 may lead to increased volatility in commodity prices due to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns [4]. - The interplay between agricultural and energy markets, particularly in terms of pricing and production, is highlighted, with potential for significant price movements based on weather-related supply changes [5][6]. - The need for monitoring extreme weather impacts on mining operations and supply chains is emphasized, particularly in resource-rich regions vulnerable to climate variability [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, indicating that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited. The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and March. Some regions in Indonesia may also face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March. Short - term lack of rainfall and persistent poor soil humidity in some areas may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Weather Forecast - **El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index**: As of the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon. As of early 2026, its intensity has been weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has not shown significant deviations, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - **Weekly Weather**: This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. The Malay Peninsula has almost no precipitation, with only sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited [1]. - **Soil Humidity**: The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and expand to the entire Malay Peninsula in March. In Sabah and Sarawak, rainfall is sufficient, and soil humidity is good. In Indonesia, although most areas have received rainfall, the amounts are lower than the same period last year. Soil humidity in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra is decreasing, and these regions may face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March [2]. Regional Palm Oil Production Areas Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall shows a downward trend, but soil humidity is good, and there is currently no drought disturbance [25]. - **West Kalimantan**: Rainfall decreases towards the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil humidity [29]. - **Central Kalimantan**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil humidity may decline [37]. - **East Kalimantan**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [42]. - **Riau**: Rainfall increase is insufficient, and soil humidity is decreasing [50]. - **South Sumatra**: Rainfall is rising, and soil humidity is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [57]. - **North Sumatra**: Rainfall was limited in January, and soil humidity is decreasing [63]. Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil humidity may decline [71]. - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil humidity is insufficient [77]. - **Perak**: Rainfall at the beginning of the year is decreasing, and soil humidity is also decreasing [84]. - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90]. - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is adequate, and soil humidity remains at a relatively high level in recent years [96].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Yumi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★★★ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows different trends, with some products in a state of shock adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships [2][3][5] - Different investment strategies are proposed for various agricultural products based on their current situations and future trends [2][5][8] Summary by Related Categories Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans are in a state of shock adjustment with a slowdown in the decline. The sales volume and price of Jilin trade - grain soybeans are good. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, but the demand is relatively cautious after price increases. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures continue to decline. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The US government is weighing biofuel quotas. South American bumper harvest expectations have returned as the main trading logic, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US government's upcoming announcement of biofuel blending obligations has boosted US soybean oil and domestic soybean oil, with palm oil following. The upper limit of soybean and palm oil prices is constrained by the expansion of global oil supplies, while the lower limit is supported by the expansion of global biodiesel demand. Overall, they are in a range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the risk of boundary failure [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures show a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. Rapeseed oil prices are affected by US biofuel policy expectations. The rapeseed market faces a contradiction between short - term supply shortage and medium - term import policy uncertainties. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low, while the national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. CNGC's increased procurement has boosted market confidence. Short - term futures will be mainly in a wide - range shock, and seasonal risks should be noted later [6] Live Pigs - Near - month live pig contracts are in shock, while far - month contracts are significantly weaker. The spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, with a slight overall increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter rhythm may accelerate, and pig prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The spot price has risen significantly. Low chicken - chick replenishment in the past few months will lead to a low number of newly - laid hens in the first half of 2026. With the supply shrinking and demand rising, it is recommended to adopt a long - low - allocation strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy for the first - half - year contracts in 2026 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The price of vegetables, particularly tomatoes and cabbage, has significantly increased this winter compared to previous years, causing concern among consumers about the affordability of staple food items [1][3][10]. Price Trends - The average price of 19 types of vegetables in wholesale markets reached 5.36 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [1]. - The wholesale price of tomatoes has surged by 88% compared to the same period last year, reaching 9.12 yuan per kilogram [3]. - In January 2025, the price of tomatoes was only 4.67 yuan per kilogram, but it skyrocketed to over 9 yuan by early January 2026, nearly doubling [7]. - Cabbage prices have also risen sharply, with wholesale prices reaching 2.34 yuan per kilogram, more than doubling since the beginning of the year [10][14]. Factors Influencing Price Increases - Adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and temperature drops, have negatively impacted vegetable production, leading to reduced supply and increased prices [14][18]. - Seasonal price fluctuations are exacerbated by the shift to facility-based cultivation in winter and increased costs associated with cross-regional distribution [18]. Comparison with Meat Prices - While vegetable prices are rising, meat prices, particularly pork, are declining due to oversupply from increased production capacity among farmers [19][22]. - Pork prices have dropped significantly, with prices in markets like Sichuan and Beijing showing reductions of 3-4 yuan per kilogram compared to last year [22]. Future Price Outlook - It is anticipated that vegetable prices will not continue to rise for long, as supply is expected to increase with the upcoming harvest from major production areas [26]. - The market is beginning to see a decrease in vegetable prices compared to early December 2025, as supply from southern regions starts to stabilize [26].

Core Insights - The year 2025 is confirmed to be one of the hottest years on record, continuing the trend of rising global temperatures [1][2] - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service report indicate that human activities are the primary drivers of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, leading to long-term temperature rises [2][3] Temperature Trends - The global average surface temperature in 2025 is projected to be 1.44 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) [2] - The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, with the last three years being the warmest, averaging 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] - The three-year average temperature from 2023 to 2025 is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] Factors Contributing to Warming - The persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases and weakened natural carbon sinks are major contributors to the abnormal warming observed in recent years [2][4] - Ocean surface temperatures have reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by phenomena such as El Niño and other oceanic changes [2][4] Extreme Weather Events - The increase in global temperatures is directly linked to a higher probability and intensity of heatwaves, stronger rainfall, and increased risks of flooding, droughts, and wildfires [4] - In 2025, half of the land areas experienced more days of extreme heat (32 degrees Celsius and above) than the historical average [4] - The year also saw a surge in extreme weather events, including record heatwaves and severe storms across Europe, Asia, and North America [4] Future Projections - Experts predict that 2026 may also be a warm year, potentially ranking among the top five hottest years on record, influenced by the evolution of El Niño and La Niña phenomena [5] - The long-term warming trend is expected to continue, with significant implications for climate risks faced by future generations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant climate events in Zhejiang Province for 2025, emphasizing record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather patterns [1][2]. Temperature Changes - The average temperature in Zhejiang for 2025 is projected to be 19.3°C, which is 1.6°C higher than the historical average and 0.5°C higher than the previous year, marking the highest since 1961 [2]. - The province has experienced 13 consecutive years of warming, with autumn temperatures (September to November) being particularly high, exceeding the average by 2.6°C [2]. Extreme Weather Events - The year 2025 saw an increase in extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, typhoons, and heavy rainfall, attributed to climate change [2][3]. - A prolonged high-temperature period lasted from June to mid-October, with 54 high-temperature days recorded, tying with 2022 for the highest since 1961 [2]. Precipitation Patterns - Precipitation in 2025 was notably low, especially at the beginning and end of the year, with November's average rainfall at only 19.2 mm, which is 80% less than the historical average for that period [2]. Future Climate Predictions - Predictions for 2026 suggest an even more turbulent climate year, with expectations of increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including less rainfall and higher temperatures [4]. - The potential transition from a La Niña to an El Niño phenomenon may exacerbate weather conditions, leading to more pronounced cold and warm weather fluctuations [4]. Cold Air Impact - A strong cold air mass is expected to bring significant temperature drops and possible snowfall, although it is not anticipated to result in a historical cold wave [5].