1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to factors such as ongoing Middle - East disputes, implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and the rise in international crude oil prices, vegetable oil prices are expected to follow the upward trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US biodiesel policy has been implemented and the market is worried about the over - expected soybean planting area in the US, causing US soybeans to decline. It is advisable to gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 30, due to the unresolved Middle - East disputes and Indonesia's formal implementation of the B50 plan, the vegetable oil sector rose collectively. For example, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8,714 yuan/ton, up 0.30% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 38,768 lots; the palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9,930 yuan/ton, up 1.66% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,265 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025 levels, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota allocated to large refineries from 50% to 70%. - Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. - On March 30, NYMEX crude oil futures closed higher, with the settlement price breaking through $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different production changes in different regions. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in regular diesel. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral state next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period in February. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of three major edible oils was 2.0421 million tons, with different inventory changes for each type of oil [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the expansion of the Iran war and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil market is strong. Indonesia's implementation of the B50 plan drives up the Malaysian palm oil futures price. Domestically, the decrease in soybean oil inventory supports the futures market, but low market purchases lead to a stable basis. Palm oil follows the crude oil trend, and the B50 plan tightens the export expectation. Rapeseed oil fluctuates at a high level due to Middle - East uncertainties [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 30, the oil was strong and the meal was weak. The near - month contracts of double - meal oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts adjusted slightly. For example, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, with a 0% day - on - day change in closing price and a daily reduction of 56,190 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted downwards. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans, soybean meal, imported rapeseed, and imported rapeseed meal has changed to different extents [2][3]. - Provide spot prices, basis, and other information for soybean meal and rapeseed meal on March 30, as well as information on soybean crushing profit and soybean arrival cost [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy and concerns about over - expected soybean planting area in the US cause US soybeans to decline. Domestically, spot prices of oil mills are adjusted downwards, and the market purchase and sales slow down. The short - term view on Zhengzhou meal is weakly bearish [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices are oscillating between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the trend of crude oil. Palm oil adjustment is basically in place, short - positions should exit, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils are oscillating at high levels [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 26, international crude oil stabilized, and vegetable oils stopped falling. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,646 yuan/ton, up 1.12% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 9,356 lots. The second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8,588 yuan/ton, up 1.27% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 17,636 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9,614 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 5,170 lots. The second - main contract P2609 closed at 9,610 yuan/ton, up 1.05% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 14,286 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,840 yuan/ton, up 1.37% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 1,527 lots. The second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,738 yuan/ton, up 1.24% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 7,804 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 26, NYMEX crude oil futures rebounded, with the most actively traded May crude oil futures contract rising $4.16, or 4.61%, to settle at $94.48 per barrel [1]. - The market generally expects an announcement on biofuel mandatory blending targets on Friday [1]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers going home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister calls for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [1]. - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, is expected to turn into ENSO neutral next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May - July 2026. El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared to 1,022,673 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared to the previous month [1]. - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices, making palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices are oscillating at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be finalized, and the USDA quarterly report will be released at the end of the month. There are many uncertainties internationally, and the US soybean oil market is oscillating strongly at high levels. Malaysian palm oil stops falling and rebounds following international crude oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and it is rumored that there will be large - scale shutdowns at the end of March and early April. However, market demand is currently weak, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of crude oil. If the Middle - East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, palm oil adjustment is basically in place, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate strongly at high levels. The resistance level of Y2605 is 9,300, and the support level is 8,048; the resistance level of Y2609 is 9,700, and the support level is 8,054; the resistance level of P2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,776; the resistance level of P2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,710; the resistance level of OI2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,212; the resistance level of OI2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,180 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 26, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal prices were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, up 0.68% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 57,311 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3,030 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 48,167 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, up 0.21% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 11,590 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,422 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 8,687 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA in February [2]. - Patria AgroNegocios reports that the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in March are expected to reach 2.44 million tons, also lower than last week's forecast of 2.66 million tons [3]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week's 5.8215 million tons. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, and US soybeans are boosted. Affected by the low - level consolidation of external futures prices and the cooling of capital sentiment, and with the resumption of normal shipping in Brazil after continuous communication between the Chinese and Brazilian agricultural departments, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal focuses on the support at the 2,900 yuan/ton mark. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreases by 20 - 60 yuan/ton with the market. The near - month basis is temporarily stable. As the traditional shutdown season approaches, oil mills maintain their price - support sentiment. However, the breeding industry is suffering serious losses, and the market purchasing and sales slow down. The spot price in East China has partially fallen below 3,200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price center will move down with the market, and attention should be paid to the shutdown rhythm of manufacturers. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly viewed in the short - term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2,350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted narrowly. Overall, near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For double - meal, near - month short - positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. The resistance level of M2605 is 3,278, and the support level is 2,710; the resistance level of M2607 is 3,000, and the support level is 2,680; the resistance level of M2509 is 3,200, and the support level is 2,833; the resistance level of RM2605 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,220; the resistance level of RM2607 is 2,560, and the support level is 2,200; the resistance level of RM2609 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,274 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices oscillate between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the crude oil trend. Palm oil adjustment is almost in place, short positions can be closed, and new long positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels [1][2] - For double - meal products, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. In the short - term, the main contract of continuous meal should focus on the support at the 2900 yuan/ton mark. Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Three Oils**: On March 25th, due to the US announcing armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean and rapeseed oils oscillated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8550 yuan/ton, down 0.51% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,534 lots [1] - **Two Meals**: On March 25th, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, causing double - meal prices to decline under pressure. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,152 lots [2] 3.2重要资讯 - **Three Oils** - On Wednesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures fell by more than 2%, and the May crude oil futures contract fell by $2.03, settling at $90.32 per barrel [1] - The market generally expects an announcement on the biofuel mandatory blending target on Friday [1] - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate [1] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel [1] - The US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, and it is expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, with El Nino likely to form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1] - The shipping survey agency SGS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20th were 889,128 tons, a 61.0% increase compared to February 1 - 20th [1] - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a 9.31% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Two Meals** - AgMarket.net predicts that the US soybean planting area in spring this year will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast [2] - Patria AgroNegocios reports that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [3] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast, and the soybean meal exports will be 2.44 million tons, also lower than the previous forecast [3] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week [3] 3.3市场逻辑 - **Three Oils**: Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices oscillate at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be implemented, and there are still many uncertainties internationally. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and the market demand is weak. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend, and rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels [2] - **Two Meals**: Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of oil mills decreases with the market, the traditional shutdown period is approaching, but the aquaculture industry is in serious losses, and the market trading slows down [3] 3.4交易策略 - **Three Oils**: For single - side trading, new long positions of palm oil can be slightly added, and soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels. For example, the pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048 [2] - **Two Meals**: Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment. For example, the pressure level of the M2605 contract is 3278, and the support level is 2710 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, the international crude oil price is under pressure after the US announced the armistice conditions, but it is still oscillating at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil is oscillating at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. The mid - term palm oil is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and new long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend. For medium - and long - term investors, the price decline caused by the TACO event presents a new buying opportunity, and they should maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US announced 15 armistice terms, and the international crude oil price cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Vegetable Oils**: On March 25, after the US announced the armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil oscillated at high levels. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8594 yuan/ton, down 1.67% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 32,990 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8532 yuan/ton, down 1.55% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 945 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9644 yuan/ton, down 3% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 27,567 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 9622 yuan/ton, up 2.69% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 10,373 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9813 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,079 lots; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9705 yuan/ton, down 1.28% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 692 lots [1]. - **Double - meal**: On March 24, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal was under pressure and declined. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2961 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 87,521 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,452 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2365 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1407 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,382 lots [2]. 3.2重要资讯 - **Vegetable Oils**: - On Tuesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures soared. The largest - scale crude oil supply disruption in history continued, and the US - Iran talks were in a "Rashomon" situation. The May crude oil futures contract rose $4.22, or 4.79%, to settle at $92.35 per barrel [1]. - On March 20 (Friday), a study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, and the reduction from the previous estimate is less than 1%. Although the overall production situation remains stable, it may decline in the short term because plantation workers return home for the Eid al - Fitr festival. Once the workers return to work after the holiday and the harvesting operations return to normal, the crop yield is expected to recover [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) said on Thursday that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the currently legally mandatory 15% biodiesel (made from products such as soybeans and tallow) mixing ratio [1]. - On March 19 (Thursday), the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released a report. According to the current ocean and atmospheric monitoring data, the La Nina phenomenon is still continuing. It is expected to change from La Nina to the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state next month, and it is likely to remain in the neutral state from May to July 2026. The CPC said that the El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last at least until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency SGS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 889,128 tons, an increase of 61.0% compared with 552,196 tons exported from February 1 - 20. Exports to China were 57,600 tons, an increase of 8200 tons compared with 49,500 tons in the same period last month [1]. - Since there is no sign of the end of the Middle East war, supply concerns have pushed up the crude oil price. The strong crude oil futures make palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Industry officials said that Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing their purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [1][2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; the edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. - As of March 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8940 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 346 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 126 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 156 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 178 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 667.11 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 567 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.9 [2]. - **Double - meal**: - AgMarket.net company: It is expected that the US soybean planting area this spring will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in February [2]. - Consulting company Patria AgroNegocios: The soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind the 73.84% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - Economic officials of the US and China held an "abnormally stable" talk on agricultural trade issues in Paris on the 15th. China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons compared with 5.8215 million tons last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 3.4092 million tons, and the five - week average was 5.9718 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons compared with 623,500 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons compared with 4.8823 million tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared with 20,000 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons compared with 76,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. - As of March 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3352 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 23,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3303 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 54,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 339 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2382 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [3]. - The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 363 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 38 yuan/ton; the Brazilian April futures crushing margin was - 4 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 321 yuan/ton [3]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf April shipment to Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4155 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian April shipment to Zhangjiagang was 3834 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf April shipment was $525/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian April shipment was $483/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian April shipment was $586/ton; the arrival cost of April - shipment rapeseed at Guangzhou Port was 5111 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3市场逻辑 - **Vegetable Oils**: In the external market, after the US announced 15 armistice terms, international oil prices were under pressure but still oscillated at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil oscillates at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Today's basis quotes are stable, having little impact on futures. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. If the Middle East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Overall, the overnight commodity market was affected by the TACO transaction, and prices fluctuated sharply in the short term. Palm oil was under pressure and fell significantly, but in the medium term, it is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. New long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend [2]. - **Double - meal**: In the external market, the US announced 15 armistice terms, and international crude oil prices cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 40 yuan with the market, and the near - month basis remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and end - users mainly make purchases based on rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted within a narrow range. Overall, near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3.4交易策略 - **Vegetable Oils**: For the price decline caused by the TACO event, for medium - and long - term investors, vegetable oils present a new buying opportunity. They should maintain a bullish view in the medium and long term and buy on dips. The pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048; the pressure level of the Y2609 contract is 9700, and the support level is 8054; the pressure level of the P2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8776; the pressure level of the P2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8710; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9212; the pressure level of the OI2609 contract is 12,000

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - related information, and upcoming economic data and events, covering multiple sectors such as metals, energy, agriculture, and finance [4][7][14] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 11.26%, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 16.64% [4] - Most London base metals fell. LME lead rose 0.08% to $1889.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.97%; LME zinc fell 0.50% to $3056.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.28%; LME nickel fell 0.58% to $16885.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 2.21%; LME tin fell 1.61% to $42840.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 8.97%; LME aluminum fell 1.85% to $3192.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.20%; LME copper fell 2.57% to $11834.5 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.40% [4] - U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.66% to $98.09 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.12%; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $104.41 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 5.25% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that La Nina is still ongoing and is expected to transition to ENSO neutral next month, likely remaining neutral from May to July 2026 [7] - Yemen's Houthi rebels may block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to support Iran [7] - As of March 20, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (composite index) was 1706.95 points, down 3.40 points from the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index was 1120.61 points, up 4.5% from the previous period [7] - Trump's administration is considering actions to occupy or block Iran's Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [7] - Traders expect a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of October and a possible rate hike in December, contrasting with earlier expectations of a rate cut [8] - The U.S. Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, while Trump insists not to send U.S. troops into Iran [8] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the economy to grow strongly this year and still anticipates three rate cuts [10] - Fed Governor Waller originally planned to vote for a rate cut but will take a more cautious approach due to oil supply tensions and inflation threats [10] - Israel and the U.S. will "significantly increase" military strikes against Iran in the next week [11] - Trump threatened to attack and destroy all of Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours [12] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the U.S. - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations [12] - Iran is promoting the "monetization of control over the Strait of Hormuz," with each tanker potentially paying about $2 million to pass through [12] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would take four measures if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - Sichuan Wujun Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s second - line with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day went into operation last Friday [14] - China's crude oil imports in February 2026 were 48045363.29 tons, a 1.72% month - on - month decrease and a 12.62% year - on - year increase [15] - From the night session on March 20, 2026, the maximum daily opening positions for non - futures company members or clients in methanol futures 2605 contract are 16000 lots, and in caustic soda futures 2605 contract are 8000 lots [15] - The International Energy Agency's chief said it may take up to six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf, and the world is facing a severe energy crisis [15] - An Indian LPG tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic efforts [15] - Six fuel transport ships originally scheduled to arrive in Australia next month have had their voyages cancelled or postponed due to the Middle East conflict [16] Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 22337 tons, aluminum inventory increased by 35619 tons, zinc inventory increased by 4918 tons, lead inventory decreased by 9939 tons, nickel inventory decreased by 20 tons, and tin inventory decreased by 2472 tons [18] - As of March 19, the inventory of 32 sample lithium ore traders' spot ports and warehouses was 200,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week, while the salable inventory was 105,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton decrease from last week [20] - Starting from the trading on April 22, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the night of April 21), the Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors, including nickel futures and options contracts [20] - From March 24, 2026, the minimum opening and closing order quantities of platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted, and the price limit and margin standards will also be adjusted [21] - Global primary aluminum production in February 2026 was 5.685 million tons, compared with 5.633 million tons in the same period last year and 6.317 million tons in the previous month. China's primary aluminum production in February is estimated to be 3.421 million tons, compared with 3.786 million tons in the previous month [21] Black - Series Futures - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a 1.44 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 2.18 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a 2.61 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 3.17 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2815 million tons, a 69,500 - ton increase from last week and an 81,100 - ton decrease from the same period last year [23] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 170.984 million tons, a decrease of 891,200 tons from the previous week; the total inventory at 47 ports was 178.1418 million tons, a decrease of 1.3314 million tons from the previous week [23] - The total urban inventory this week was 12.0088 million tons, a 105,400 - ton (- 0.87%) decrease from last week. The inventory of construction steel was 6.4461 million tons, a 2300 - ton (+ 0.04%) increase from last week [24] Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month [26] - As of the week of March 20, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 297.68 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 283.15 yuan per head on March 13. The profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 141.48 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 118.18 yuan per head on March 13 [26] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [27] - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, a 21,100 - ton increase from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [27] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [28] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises, requiring them to adjust production and control inventory to promote market stability [28] Financial Market Finance - Similar to agricultural futures, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 increased, and pig - farming profits were in the red [30][31] - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased slightly, and the operating rate was 54.81% [31] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [32] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises to promote market stability [32] Industry - By March 15, the weekly call volume of Chinese AI large models reached 46.9 trillion Tokens, surpassing the U.S. for the second consecutive week. JPMorgan predicts a 370 - fold increase in China's AI inference Token consumption from 2025 to 2030 [34] - On March 23 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise for the fifth consecutive time, with an estimated increase of about 2000 yuan per ton [34] - Chinese automakers' global cumulative sales in 2025 exceeded Japan's for the first time [34] - A rare - earth mine in Sichuan increased its reserves by over 200% [35] - Several cities in Jiangsu issued automobile purchase subsidies [35] - China's first fully domestic solution - based polyolefin elastomer industrial device entered trial operation [37] - Many wealth - management companies adjusted their performance benchmarks [37] Overseas - The Trump administration is in preliminary consultations for a "peace talk" with Iran, with specific demands [38] - Iran allows non - enemy ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination [38] - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire [38] - South Korea's President Li Zaiming will exclude multi - property owners from real - estate policies [39] - India is facing an LPG shortage, and the government will increase the commercial LPG sales quota [41] Commodity - Some banks have raised the handling fees for gold accumulation business [42] - The G7 called on Iran to stop attacks and is ready to support global energy supply [42] Foreign Exchange - China's central bank governor said China has no need to depreciate the exchange rate for trade advantages and will maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [43] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Singapore's February CPI, Canada's national economic confidence index, U.S. economic data, etc. [45] - Events include China's central bank's reverse - repurchase maturity, Huawei's product launch, European Central Bank speeches, etc. [47]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the Fed's firm attitude and weakened rate - cut expectations, commodities weakened overall on March 20th, with the vegetable oil sector showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil led the decline under pressure, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. It's recommended to exit long positions in oils and hold short positions in palm oil, and there is also room for decline in soybean oil and rapeseed oil later [2]. - For the two - meal sector, on March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market was worried about the postponement of the US President's visit to China and the subsequent Sino - US economic and trade relations, betting on the rise of long - term double - meals. It's recommended to operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, the Fed's attitude weakened rate - cut expectations, causing overall weakness in commodities and a differentiated trend in the vegetable oil sector. Palm oil led the decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 398 lots; the main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton, down 0.80% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,646 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2,919 lots [2]. (2) Important Information - On March 19th, NYMEX crude oil futures closed down, with the US oil main contract down 0.19% at $96.14/barrel and the Brent oil main contract up 1.18% at $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with a forecast range of 46 - 56 million tons, a downward adjustment of less than 1% from the previous forecast. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers returning home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Abiove said the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be blended into regular diesel to cope with the energy price crisis. The Brazilian Energy Minister called for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [2]. - On March 19th, the CPC reported that La Nina is still ongoing, expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. El Nino may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons [2]. - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared with February 1 - 15. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with the same period last month [2]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49% [2][3]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, the global financial market fluctuated sharply overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. US soybean oil was under pressure at high levels. In Malaysia, palm oil markets were closed for Eid al - Fitr, and prices were strong the day before the holiday, but surrounding vegetable oils weakened [3]. - For soybean oil in China, some factories have shut down, and the upcoming end - of - month shutdown wave has some support for the futures market. However, it is still the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation is more negative than the shutdown support [3]. - For palm oil, although the data of lower production in the first half of the month on the production side provided short - term support to the market, with the gradual slowdown of exports and the potential negative impact of increased production after Eid al - Fitr, crude palm oil futures are still under pressure to fall [3]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic vegetable oil market has shown obvious signs of stagnant growth and is still at risk of a corrective decline. In the short term, it will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and maintain a wide - range volatile adjustment trend. Spot trading in rapeseed oil has been continuously light, and it is difficult for the market to pick up goods, with most oil mills delivering to reserve depots [3]. (4) Trading Strategy - In the single - sided market, exit long positions in oils, hold short positions in palm oil. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a volatile state and have room for decline. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [3]. 2. Two - Meal Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 0.43% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 78,358 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2,423 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,298 lots [3]. (2) Important Information - The NOPA's February soybean crushing volume is expected to reach a record high for the month, with 9 analysts predicting an average of 202.725 million bushels [4]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing a potential threat to the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" agricultural trade talk in Paris on the 15th, and China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - ANEC reported that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 are estimated to be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase compared with March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week [4]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, US soybeans are testing the 20 - day moving average. If they cannot break through effectively, there is a risk of new declines. For soybean meal, although the import cost has slightly decreased, the decline in the futures market is limited due to the end - of - month shutdown wave and the strong spot market. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the range of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, and the market trading volume has been light, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [4]. (4) Trading Strategy - Operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the approaching Ramadan, the Malaysian palm oil market was closed. Before the closure, its performance was relatively strong, but the surrounding vegetable oils weakened. The domestic soybean oil market will face a shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts than the support from the shutdown. The palm oil market may face pressure to decline due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation, maintaining a wide - range volatile adjustment. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold short positions [2][3]. - For the double - meal sector, the external soybean market may face a new decline risk if it cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average. The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived. It is recommended to exit long positions at low levels and try short positions with a small amount [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Performance - On March 19, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices rose sharply, but the vegetable oil market did not follow significantly. The vegetable oil sector showed a narrow - range oscillation. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 8616 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 19737 lots; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 8530 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 7975 lots [2]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9796 yuan/ton, up 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1763 lots; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 9706 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4735 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 9854 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5030 lots; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 9708 yuan/ton, up 0.72% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2362 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 19, NYMEX crude oil futures fell, with the main US oil contract down 0.19% to $96.14/barrel, and the main Brent oil contract up 1.18% to $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Production may decline in the short term due to plantation workers returning home for Ramadan but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggested that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the mandatory biodiesel mixing ratio [2]. - On March 19, the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that the La Nina phenomenon is still ongoing, is expected to turn into an ENSO - neutral state next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. An El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Market expectations were 2.63 million tons for inventory, 1.3 million tons for production, and 1.18 million tons for exports [2]. - The shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase from 393,853 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, a 1700 - ton increase from the previous month [2][3]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35%; edible palm oil inventory was 760,900 tons, a weekly increase of 16,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, and a year - on - year increase of 94.21%; rapeseed oil inventory was 304,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 64.42% [3]. - As of March 19, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis was 244 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was 74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 94 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 388.13 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [3]. - As of March 19, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.83 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the global financial market fluctuated overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. The US soybean oil was under pressure at a high level. Domestically, some soybean oil factories have shut down, and the market is concerned about the shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts. The palm oil market may face pressure due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation [2][3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, exit long positions in oils and increase short positions. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 9300, support level 8048. - Y2609: Pressure level 9700, support level 8054. - P2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 8776. - P2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 8710. - OI2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 9212. - OI2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 9180 [3]. 3.2 Double - Meal 3.2.1 Market Performance - On March 19, domestic double - meal futures opened and closed lower, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 0.20% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 26,514 lots; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 3009 yuan/ton, up 0.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,892 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2443 yuan/ton, with no change day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,533 lots; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 0.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 4094 lots [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The forecast of the NOPA monthly soybean crushing report shows that the average prediction of 9 analysts is that the NOPA member companies' soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high for that month, with an average of 202.725 million bushels [3][4]. - Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified. The soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. Although the current export volume is relatively limited, if the conflict persists, shipping and insurance costs may increase, posing a potential threat to the export prospects [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" talk on agricultural trade in Paris on the 15th. China still promises to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 18.71%; the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.72%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 181,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 33.33%; the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 65.22% [4]. - As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 49,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3381 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 131,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2670 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal was 2501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 27 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [4]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans in April was - 342 yuan/ton for the futures market and - 42 yuan/ton for the spot market; the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in April was 188 yuan/ton for the futures market and 488 yuan/ton for the spot market [4]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans in April at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4139 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3777 yuan/ton. The CNF quotes of US Gulf soybeans in April were $523/ton, and those of Brazilian soybeans were $476/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed in April was $570/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed at Guangzhou Port in April was 5167 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, if the US soybean market cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average, it may face a new decline risk. Domestically, although the import cost of soybean meal has slightly decreased, the decline of the futures market is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived [3][4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Exit existing long positions and try short positions with a small amount. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 3278, support level 2710. - M2607: Pressure level 3000, support level 2680. - M2609: Pressure level 3200, support level 2833. - RM2605: Pressure level 2600, support level 2220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2560, support level 2200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2600, support level 2274 [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Oilseeds and Soybean Meal Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the oilseeds and soybean meal market, highlighting the cyclical nature of pricing influenced by weather patterns, particularly the La Niña phenomenon, which has historically led to bull markets approximately every eight years, with notable years being 2004, 2012, and 2020 [1][3] - The correlation between CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal is strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88, indicating that external market movements often have a greater impact than domestic ones [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments Soybean Market Outlook - The soybean market is expected to see a bumper crop in 2026, driven by increased biodiesel crushing in the U.S. (approximately 12 million tons) and a procurement agreement with China for 25 million tons, which will help reduce U.S. soybean inventories [1][5][8] - The demand side will be crucial for the 2026 market, with U.S. policies aimed at reducing large carryover stocks and boosting exports, particularly through biodiesel production [7][8] - The 2027 market outlook is more uncertain, with potential weather changes and increased demand from China expected to create more speculative opportunities [9][10] Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market's driving logic has shifted from supply-side factors to demand-side influences, particularly due to biodiesel policies in Indonesia, which have raised the blending ratio from B20 to B40 and potentially to B50 [1][4][10] - The oil market is expected to outperform the protein market in terms of price increases, especially if oil prices rise above $120 per barrel, which could push palm oil prices to 15,000 yuan/ton [1][14] Cost Structure and Geopolitical Impact - Land rent is the primary cost component in soybean production, with fertilizer and transportation costs each accounting for less than 10% of total costs [1][15] - Geopolitical events have led to increased shipping costs; however, suppliers often lower offshore prices to maintain competitiveness, limiting the impact on CNF (Cost and Freight) prices [1][16][17] Additional Important Points - The soybean meal market has experienced fluctuations due to delays in Brazilian shipments, affecting domestic prices and leading to a strong performance in the May contract [1][12] - The analysis framework for oilseeds typically involves two main lines: the protein line (soybeans and soybean meal) and the oil line (palm oil, soybean oil), with palm oil being the primary pricing benchmark due to its significant global production share [2][3] - The demand for soybean meal in the domestic feed sector is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than in 2025, with growth projected at 1-2% for 2026 compared to 2-3% in 2025 [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the oilseeds and soybean meal market dynamics, future outlooks, and the impact of external factors on pricing and demand.

Summary of Sugar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The sugar industry is currently experiencing a cycle characterized by an expected production of 12 million tons in China for 2026, the highest since the 2013/14 season, leading to supply pressure and weaker sugar prices, although a cash cost support line at 5,000 CNY/ton provides a strong floor for prices [1][8] - Brazil's sugar-to-ethanol ratio is driven by energy prices, with ethanol prices exceeding raw sugar prices by approximately 2 cents per pound, indicating that a 1% decrease in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio could reduce production by 700,000 to 800,000 tons, enhancing supply reduction expectations [1][11] - Global climate changes, transitioning from La Niña to a strong El Niño, may lead to droughts in India, Thailand, and southern China, potentially reducing sugar production [1][12] Key Points on Supply and Demand - The current sugar production cycle is nearing its end, with high sugar prices in previous years leading to increased production, resulting in a current oversupply situation [2] - The sugar supply chain is primarily composed of sugarcane (80% of global production) and sugar beet (20%), with major production areas including Brazil, India, and Thailand [2][5] - China’s sugar consumption remains stable at around 15 million tons, with domestic production unable to meet demand, necessitating imports [3][7] Market Dynamics - The sugar market is influenced by various factors including weather, policies, and the prices of substitute products like glucose syrup and various sweeteners [2][4] - The sugar market's supply structure in China shows that domestic production can meet about two-thirds of demand, with the remainder covered by imports [7] - The expected production for 2026 in China is projected at 12 million tons, with significant production from Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong [8] Price Trends and Cost Support - Despite the anticipated supply pressure in 2026, sugar prices are expected to have a strong support level due to rising production costs, including labor and land rental costs [8][9] - Historical data indicates that sugar prices tend to find a solid bottom when they approach cash cost levels, which are currently around 5,000 CNY/ton [8] - The current sugar price is positioned at a low level compared to other major crops, which may affect planting decisions in the future [10] Impact of External Factors - Rising energy prices and fertilizer costs are expected to increase sugar production costs, with fertilizer prices having risen by 50% due to geopolitical conflicts [11] - The potential for extreme weather events associated with El Niño could significantly impact sugar production in key regions [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - COFCO Sugar is expected to benefit from the widening price gap between domestic and international sugar prices, enhancing its refining profits [14] - COFCO Technology is likely to see improved profitability from ethanol production due to rising oil prices, which are closely linked to ethanol prices [15] Investment Considerations - The current sugar price presents a long-term investment opportunity, particularly in the 5,000-5,200 CNY/ton range, with potential policy interventions if prices fall below 5,000 CNY/ton [9] - The preference for investing in raw sugar over white sugar is noted due to current market pressures and price dynamics [16] Conclusion - The sugar industry is at a critical juncture with significant production forecasts, cost pressures, and external factors influencing market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor these developments for potential opportunities and risks in the sector.