豆粕月报 2025 年 9 月 8 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 近端供应在 四季度仍存缺口 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 1/22 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美贸易谈判乐观预期降温，大豆采购协议 落空，美豆出口需求承压。8月USDA报告偏利多，2025/26 年度美豆种植面积下调250万英亩至8090万英亩，单产预 估53.6蒲/英亩，期末库存下滑至2.9亿蒲式耳；近期产 区降水偏少导致优良率大幅下滑，关注9月报告单产的调 整；商务部发布对进口加菜籽反倾销调查裁定，保证金 比率未75.8%，并延长调查期限，菜系进口预期收紧强化； 气象组织发布，拉尼娜现象9月可能回归，南美大豆播种 工作即将开启，跟踪天气的变化。 ⚫ 国内方面：买船进度来看，11月船期采购进度为14%，12 月为1.5%，1月船期采购零星，整体进度偏慢；市场消息 称11月进口储备大豆有3 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价再度下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.49 美元至 | | | | 63.48 美元/桶，跌幅 0.77%。布伦特 11 月合约收盘下跌 0.61 美元 | | | | 至 66.99 美元/桶，跌幅 0.90%。SC2510 以 483.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 0.3 元/桶，跌幅为 0.06%。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 8 月 29 | | | | 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 240 万桶至 4.207 亿桶，此前市 | | | | 场预期为减少 200 万桶。美国 SPR 增加 50 万桶至 4.047 亿桶。美 | | | | 国汽油库存减少 380 万桶至 2.185 亿桶，包括柴油和取暖油的馏 | | | | 分油库存增加 170 万桶至 1.159 亿桶。美国国内原油产量减少 1.6 | | | 原油 | 万桶/日，至 1342.3 万桶/日，四周均值为 1339.3 万桶/日。美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

Report Core View - Ukraine has increased export taxes on soybeans and rapeseed, and the export tax will last until January 1, 2030, then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [1] - Two cold fronts are expected to sweep across the United States this week, bringing scattered showers, and the temperature will drop again after the cold fronts pass. As of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina occurring in Brazil in spring has increased, which may lead to drought in the south and affect soybean production. Brazilian farmers have sold less than 20% of the new-season soybeans, slower than in previous years [1] - In August, India's palm oil imports increased by 16% month-on-month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports grew strongly in August, with different data sources showing growth rates of 30.53%, 15.37%, and 10.2% respectively [2] Summary by Directory Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oils - Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will be adjusted in the future [1] - Cold fronts in the US may affect soybean growth, and the current good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina in Brazil may affect soybean production, and Brazilian farmers are delaying soybean sales [1] Palm Oils - India's palm oil imports increased significantly in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% [2] - Indian traders predict that palm oil and soybean oil imports in September will remain at relatively high levels [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports showed strong growth in August [2]

拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象，而厄尔尼诺现象则是指太平洋 赤道海域海水大范围持续异常升温的现象。 据世界气象组织2日发布的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象最新通报，拉尼娜现象有可能从今年9月起回归并影响 未来数月的全球天气和气候状况。不过，尽管拉尼娜现象有暂时降温影响，全球众多地区的气温仍可能 高于平均水平。 气象组织介绍说，自2025年3月以来，中性条件（非厄尔尼诺现象也非拉尼娜现象）持续。然而，拉尼 娜现象有可能从9月开始并在未来数月浮现。9月至12月期间出现厄尔尼诺现象的可能性很小。 尽管拉尼娜现象可能会在不少地方回归，但通报也指出，9月至11月，北半球众多地区和南半球很大一 部分区域的气温预计将高于平均水平。 （文章来源：新华网） ...

2025/9/3 10:00 【国富期货早间看点】交易商预计印度8⽉棕榈油进⼝环⽐增加16% 美⾖当周优良率为65%低于预期 20250903 【国富期货早间看点】交易商预计印度8月棕榈油进口环比增加16% 美豆当周优良率为65%低于预期 20250903 国富研究 国富研究 2025年09月03日 07:37 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | 4489.00 | 2.22 | 0. 34 | | 布伦特11(ICE) | 69.07 | 1.34 | 0. 47 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 65. 62 | 2.52 | 0. 61 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1040. 00 | -1.23 | 0. 10 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 283. 30 | -1.87 | -0. 07 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 50 | 0.77 | -0. 04 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the high excellent rate of US corn in the early growth stage keeps the output outlook high, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the transaction rate and premium have decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. The high - temperature weather in summer is unfavorable for grain storage, increasing traders' shipping enthusiasm and slightly increasing market grain sources. Wheat has an obvious feed substitution advantage, reducing corn feed demand. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high - level oscillations, showing overall weakness [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, significantly reducing supply pressure. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand has entered the traditional off - season, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. Supply and demand remain loose. Recently, starch has also shown overall weak oscillations due to the decline in corn prices [2][3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2302 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2647 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1017804 hands, down 13096 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 255773 hands, up 7909 hands. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 13789 hands, up 17113 hands; for corn starch are - 13753 hands, down 4247 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 194126 hands, down 2353 hands; for corn starch are 18899 hands, down 3080 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 412.25 cents/bushel, down 4.25 cents. - CBOT corn total holding is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2417.45 yuan/ton, down 4.12 yuan. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average import cost of imported corn is 1884.32 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. - The international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main corn contract is 115.45 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 53 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons. - The monthly import volume of corn is 353.19 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons. - The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The average feed corn inventory days of samples is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.14%, down 1.06%. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Hebei is - 8 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; in Jilin is - 73 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.58%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - US President Trump announced on the 9th that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from Brazil, which will have a major impact on the agricultural product trade between the two countries. - Brazilian agricultural meteorological agency Rural Clima said that due to the prediction of a possible La Nina phenomenon by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 10th, Brazil's new crop sowing season may be affected by La Nina, but the climate may return to a neutral state after spring. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market - expected 73%, 73% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in China, including record high temperatures and heavy rainfall, attributed to climate change and the behavior of the subtropical high-pressure system [1][5][9]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Trends - China has experienced the hottest June on record, with extreme heat and heavy rainfall occurring simultaneously in different regions [1]. - The National Climate Center reports a general increase in extreme heat records and rainfall intensity across most regions in China over the past few decades [1][5]. - The average annual warm days in China have increased by approximately 6.7 days every decade, indicating a lengthening of the warm season [5]. Group 2: Climate Change Impacts - The article highlights that global warming is a significant factor contributing to the observed warming and increased humidity in northern China [5][9]. - The average relative humidity in Beijing has risen by 5% from 2013-2022 compared to 2003-2012, indicating a trend towards a warmer and more humid climate [3][4]. - The subtropical high-pressure system's behavior has changed, leading to earlier and more intense heat waves in northern regions [7][8]. Group 3: Weather Forecasting Challenges - There is a discrepancy between reported temperatures and public perception due to differences in measurement standards and personal experiences of weather [2]. - Future weather forecasts may increasingly focus on "feels-like" temperatures rather than just air temperature, addressing public concerns more effectively [2]. Group 4: Regional Weather Patterns - The article describes how the subtropical high-pressure system influences weather patterns, causing drought in some areas while leading to heavy rainfall in others, creating a "drought in a large area, flood in a narrow line" phenomenon [6][10]. - The intensity and frequency of localized extreme rainfall events are increasing, with significant implications for flood management and infrastructure [10][11]. Group 5: Adaptation and Preparedness - The article emphasizes the need for improved disaster preparedness and water resource management in light of increasing extreme weather events [12]. - It suggests that alongside disaster mitigation, there should be a focus on utilizing rainfall during flood seasons for water conservation in drier months [12].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a La Niña event occurring this year has decreased according to Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) [1] Group 1 - ESNZ's assessment indicates a reduced probability of La Niña, which may have implications for weather patterns and agricultural sectors [1]

Weather Conditions - Continuous rainfall has been the main feature in Hangzhou since the onset of the plum rain season, with temperatures remaining relatively low, peaking at only 24.2°C [1] - The weather is expected to remain rainy, with significant rainfall forecasted for the upcoming days, including potential heavy rain and localized storms with accumulations of 20-40 mm, and some areas experiencing over 100 mm [2][3] Typhoon Forecast - A tropical disturbance in the South China Sea is likely to develop into the first typhoon of the year, named "Butterfly," expected to make landfall in southern China between June 13-14 [2][3] - The typhoon is anticipated to bring more rainfall than wind, necessitating preparations for both the typhoon and heavy rain in affected regions [3] Seasonal Rainfall Patterns - This year's rainy season in Zhejiang is characterized by a pattern of less rain early on and more later, with a higher risk of disasters during the plum rain period [6] - The average temperature in Zhejiang has been 1.1°C higher than the historical average, with significant rainfall recorded in early June, particularly in central and northern regions [6] Flood Preparedness - Zhejiang has implemented extensive flood prevention measures, including the appointment of 46,000 flood responsibility personnel and inspections of nearly 270,000 key points for potential issues [7] - The province is preparing for 3 to 5 typhoons this year, which is above the historical average, with the most significant impacts expected from July to September [6][7]