南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——降雨集中在沙巴地区，留意产量后续是否受到影响 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，直 到2026年1月底依然维持，厄尔尼诺指数截至25年12月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象持 续，但截至目前暂时未出现剧烈影响。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨分布依然不均匀，主要集中在印尼的大部分地区及马来东部。马来半岛降雨 多在北部地区，南部依然降雨偏少。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，3月及4月目前来看缺乏好转可能，不过沙巴和沙捞越地 区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰，印尼本周大部分地区降雨恢复，但廖内及南苏门答 腊、北苏门答腊岛深层土壤湿度继续下滑，如后续降雨无改善，在3、4月可能也有干旱风险。 4、短期沙巴地区或伴随强降雨过程，持续降雨时长，如持续过久或将导致短期产量下滑，但整体来看土壤湿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It also includes macro and industry news, such as investigations into the Fed Chair, palm oil price and export policies in Malaysia, and crop production forecasts in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,782 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.39% decline and 8,798 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase; soybean oil futures closed at 8,082 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.35% decline and 8,106 yuan/ton at night with a 0.30% increase; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,047 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.92% decline and 9,093 yuan/ton at night with a 0.51% increase. The Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 4,037 ringgit/ton during the day with a -0.57% decline and 4,044 ringgit/ton at night with a 0.17% increase. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 57.90 cents/pound with a 0.70% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 328,615 lots with an increase of 37,882 lots, and the open interest was 400,972 lots with a decrease of 16,264 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 209,635 lots with an increase of 18,360 lots, and the open interest was 651,133 lots with a decrease of 12,182 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 131,858 lots with a decrease of 18,765 lots, and the open interest was 251,961 lots with a decrease of 8,435 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,610 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,070 yuan/ton with no change. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,075 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 118 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 528 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 1,023 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 265 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 700 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 14 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 60 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 23 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary agreed to an investigation of Fed Chair Powell by the Senate Banking Committee [2] - Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in March but kept the export tax rate at 9%. From February 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.58% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume decreased by 16.1% [3][4] - The USDA's 102nd Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held on February 19th, focusing on agricultural trade policies under the "Trump Paradigm" [4] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 1.7798 billion tons, and the export volume is expected to be 1.122 billion tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be around 48 - 48.5 million tons [4][5] - From February to April 2026, the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO - neutral is 60%, and the neutral state is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere summer [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is -1 [6]

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 ICE公布数据显示，截至2月11日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存为102232包，前一日为99096包。 汇市：美元指数上涨。股市：纽约股市三大股指显著上涨。油市：国际油价微涨。 二、现货 12日CotlookA指数73.55美分/磅，涨25点。 ICE交投最活跃的5月棉花期货合约上涨0.29美分或0.45%，结算价报64.33美分/磅。 美国农业部(USDA)周四公布的出口销售报告显示，2月5日止当周，当前年度美棉出口销售净增23.1万 包，较前周减少8%，较前四周均值减少23%。下一年度美棉出口销售净增5.09万包。 PriceFuturesGroup的副总裁JackScoville表示："最新公布的棉花出口销售数据表现还不错，这帮助支撑 棉价。" 在谈到短期展望时，堪萨斯州的大宗商品分析师SidLove表示："我认为情况会保持平稳，但我预计在作 物播种之前，会有短暂的支撑，之后我们将关注厄尔尼诺现象如何发展。" 美国气候预测中心(CPC)表示，2026年2-4月，拉尼娜现象转为厄尔尼诺南方涛动中性状态(ENSO- neutral)的概率为60%，且中性状态预计将 ...

欧盟机构：1月多地寒潮并不意味气候变暖趋势改变。 欧洲中期天气预报中心气候战略负责人萨曼莎·伯吉斯表示，2 0 2 6年1月的情况表明，气候 系统有时会同时在不同地区带来严寒与酷热。在人类活动持续引发气候变暖的长期趋势 下，近期事件凸显出增强韧性和适应能力，以应对不断加剧的极端天气风险的重要性。 来源：新华社 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 欧盟气候监测机构哥白尼气候变化服务局当地时间2月1 0日发布公报说，虽然今年1月多 地出现强寒潮等极端天气，但全球气候变暖总体趋势并未改变。 公报说，2026年1月为全球有记录以来第五暖的1月，该月全球地表平均气温为12.95摄氏 度，较199 1年至2 0 2 0年同期平均值高出0.51摄氏度，较工业化前（1 8 5 0年至1 9 0 0年）水 平 高 出 约 1 . 4 7 摄 氏 度 。 海 洋 方 面 ， 1 月 南 北 纬 60 度 之 间 海 洋 表 面 平 均 温 度 为 2 0 . 6 8 摄 氏 度，为有记录以来同月的第四高。赤道太平洋中部和东部海表温度接近或略低于常年，反 映出弱拉尼娜现象。 公报显示，1月中下旬北半球和南半球出现鲜明冷热对比：北半球的北 ...

公报解释，北半球1月严寒天气主要由短期大尺度大气环流异常导致。位于地表上空约8至12公里的极地 急流阶段性变得更为波动，使北极冷空气更易向中纬度外溢，导致寒潮出现。公报指出，近几十年来北 极变暖速度快于全球平均水平，北极与中纬度之间的温差变小，在一定条件下可能导致极地急流容易出 现更大幅度波动，从而增加冷空气外溢的可能性。 新华社布鲁塞尔2月10日电欧盟气候监测机构哥白尼气候变化服务局10日发布公报说，虽然今年1月多地 出现强寒潮等极端天气，但全球气候变暖总体趋势并未改变。 公报说，2026年1月为全球有记录以来第五暖的1月，该月全球地表平均气温为12.95摄氏度，较1991年 至2020年同期平均值高出0.51摄氏度，较工业化前（1850年至1900年）水平高出约1.47摄氏度。海洋方 面，1月南北纬60度之间海洋表面平均温度为20.68摄氏度，为有记录以来同月的第四高。赤道太平洋中 部和东部海表温度接近或略低于常年，反映出弱拉尼娜现象。 公报显示，1月中下旬北半球和南半球出现鲜明冷热对比：北半球的北美、欧洲和西伯利亚等地遭遇大 范围严寒；南半球多地出现破纪录高温并加剧极端气候情况，如澳大利亚、智利等地野火 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists, but its intensity is weak, so the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation, and currently has limited impact on palm oil producing areas [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. There is sporadic rainfall in the Malay Peninsula, mostly in the northern region [1]. - The soil moisture in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula is still dry, and there is no possibility of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is acceptable, and the soil moisture is good across the country, with no drought concerns. Overall, the impact on production should be limited [2]. - In Indonesia, rainfall has recovered in most areas this week, but the soil moisture in Riau and West Kalimantan is decreasing. If there is no improvement in subsequent rainfall, there may be a drought risk in March and April [2]. - There is little short - term rainfall, and there are no severe weather disasters such as rainstorms. Continued attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if the weather in other areas is favorable for production, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Phenomenon - The Southern Oscillation Index has been above the threshold of 1 since the end of 2025 and remained so until the end of January 2026. The El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists with weak intensity, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation [1]. Rainfall Distribution - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The Malay Peninsula has sporadic rainfall, mostly in the north [1]. Soil Moisture - The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has dry soil moisture, with no improvement expected in March and April. Sabah and Sarawak have good soil moisture with no drought concerns [2]. - In Indonesia, most areas have recovered rainfall, but Riau and West Kalimantan have decreasing soil moisture, with potential drought risks in March and April if rainfall does not improve [2]. Production Outlook - If the soil moisture in lagging areas does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if other areas have favorable weather, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Specific Palm Oil Producing Areas Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall has slightly improved in February, and soil moisture is expected to rise [23]. - West Kalimantan: Rainfall has increased, but soil conditions are average [31]. - Central Kalimantan: Rainfall shows an increasing trend, and soil moisture is being restored [40]. - East Kalimantan: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture is being restored [47]. - Riau: Rainfall improvement is limited, and soil moisture continues to decline [55]. - South Sumatra: Rainfall has increased, and soil moisture may improve [60]. - North Sumatra: Rainfall is expected to recover, and soil moisture has not further deteriorated [67]. Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture continues to decline [75]. - Pahang: Rainfall is still scarce, and soil moisture improvement is insufficient [81]. - Perak: Rainfall has slightly recovered in February, which may avoid further drought [88]. - Sabah: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [94]. - Sarawak: Rainfall in February is acceptable, and soil moisture may rise [101].

文 | 聂波 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 往年USDA 2月报告会对南美大豆产量调整，尤其是最近阿根廷天气炒作，巴西大豆发运缓慢，CBOT美大豆从 底部反弹，那么本次报告中美国和南美大豆平衡表将有哪些变化？阿根廷干旱问题是否对国内豆粕市场产生较 大影响？ 短期南美炒作天气，长期南美丰产 01 本次美国农业部（USDA）2月供需报告将于当地2月10日下午12点公布，通常2月报告不会对美豆供应方面进 行调整，25/26年度美豆产量在今年的2-9月的供需报告中不再有变化，进口方面即使调整也将会很小，本次报 告的修正将集中在需求端的压榨和出口。 美国12月大豆压榨量预估为2.304亿蒲式耳，将比2024年11月的2.177亿蒲式耳增加5.9%，较11月份的2.205 亿蒲式耳增加4.5%，压榨量处于历史次新高的水平。由于生产生物燃料所需的豆油需求不断增加，美国大豆压 榨产能扩大，推动大豆压榨率飙升至历史高位。9-12月累计压榨8.924亿蒲式耳，同比增加7.29%，高于1月报 告中年度压榨目标增速5.11%，但是增速略低于9-11月的7.99%。在1月报告中，25/26年度美豆压榨 ...

南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产区降雨稍有好转但整体有限，关注马来半岛干旱情况 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象已经形成，至26年年初，其强度持续偏弱， 东南亚整体降雨并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。南方涛动指数逐渐向0轴回归，拉尼娜或接近 尾声。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨量依旧偏少。马来半岛几乎无降水，东马零星降雨为主，印尼的卡里曼丹岛 降雨量稍多，苏门答腊岛及周边地区降雨也有限。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，且进入2月后干旱或进一步扩散，3月甚至整个马来半岛 均呈现干旱态势，沙巴和沙捞越地区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰；印尼本周卡里曼 丹岛及占碑地区有降雨，但廖内及北苏门答腊地区土壤湿度递减，如2、3月降雨无改善可能也有干旱风险。 ...

2026年1月22日早盘，A股石油产业链全线走强，多只个股开盘快速拉升涨停。蓝焰控股在约2分钟内直 线涨停，洲际油气、胜利股份、中泰股份等多股涨停或涨超10%。 Wind实时监测数据显示，石油石化行业早间获得逾26亿元主力资金净流入，其中洲际油气、中国海 油、中国石化等8股获得超亿元主力资金净流入。 欧佩克日前发表声明称，受季节性因素影响，决定在2026年2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月 及2026年1月保持一致，后续将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 国金证券称，拉尼娜现象发生概率提升，或导致冬季北半球气温骤降，当前欧洲天然气库存处于中位水 平，若出现冷冬或推升天然气价格，建议关注上游天然气生产相关标的。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 寒潮成为本次行情核心驱动因素之一。美国寒潮推升天然气期货价格暴涨，隔夜NYMEX天然气价格飙 升逾29%，当日早间继续攀升，截至发稿再度上涨逾9%，近4个交易日合计大涨逾72%。据美国国家气 象局最新消息，已对多地发布"危及生命的严寒"警告。一股来自加拿大的极地寒流正快速南下 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The company maintains a tight outlook for the US natural gas market in 2026, expecting NYMEX gas prices to rise to a seasonal fluctuation range of $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) [1] - Despite a warm winter in Europe, low natural gas inventories will support global LNG market replenishment demand, with expectations for the Dutch TTF gas price to decrease to a range of $9-10 per MMBtu in 2026 [1][5] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts of summer hurricanes on oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico [1] Group 2: Climate Impact on Commodity Markets - The company identifies climate shocks as a significant risk embedded in global supply chains, with the La Niña phenomenon re-emerging and a 60% probability of El Niño occurring later in the year [3][4] - The interplay of climate uncertainty and human policy constraints, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and local production requirements in the US, is expected to create a new phase of "risk nesting" in the commodity market by 2026 [3] Group 3: Weather's Influence on Different Commodity Sectors - In the energy sector, temperature is the core driver, with US natural gas inventories lower than the five-year average, providing a favorable condition for price increases [5] - For non-ferrous metals, heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, affecting costs and supply [6][7] - In the agricultural sector, weather conditions directly impact crop yields, with Brazil's soybean production expected to remain strong despite La Niña, while palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to high inventory levels and Ramadan demand [9]