运行为主。同时，小麦饲用替代优势明显，饲料企业逐渐加大小麦采购替代玉米，玉米饲用需求有所下降 。盘面来看，近来玉米期价高位震荡回落，总体表现偏弱。 | 观点总结（ | 受玉米淀粉企业生产持续亏损影响下，行业开机率继续处于近年同期低位，供应压力明显减弱。不过，民用及造纸市场需求欠佳， | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 下游需求也进入传统淡季，下游提货略有放缓，供需表现仍然宽松。截至7月9日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量133.7万吨，较 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | | 上周增加2.40万吨，周增幅1.83%，月增幅2.14%；年同比增幅26.97%。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀粉也总体偏弱震荡。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in China, including record high temperatures and heavy rainfall, attributed to climate change and the behavior of the subtropical high-pressure system [1][5][9]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Trends - China has experienced the hottest June on record, with extreme heat and heavy rainfall occurring simultaneously in different regions [1]. - The National Climate Center reports a general increase in extreme heat records and rainfall intensity across most regions in China over the past few decades [1][5]. - The average annual warm days in China have increased by approximately 6.7 days every decade, indicating a lengthening of the warm season [5]. Group 2: Climate Change Impacts - The article highlights that global warming is a significant factor contributing to the observed warming and increased humidity in northern China [5][9]. - The average relative humidity in Beijing has risen by 5% from 2013-2022 compared to 2003-2012, indicating a trend towards a warmer and more humid climate [3][4]. - The subtropical high-pressure system's behavior has changed, leading to earlier and more intense heat waves in northern regions [7][8]. Group 3: Weather Forecasting Challenges - There is a discrepancy between reported temperatures and public perception due to differences in measurement standards and personal experiences of weather [2]. - Future weather forecasts may increasingly focus on "feels-like" temperatures rather than just air temperature, addressing public concerns more effectively [2]. Group 4: Regional Weather Patterns - The article describes how the subtropical high-pressure system influences weather patterns, causing drought in some areas while leading to heavy rainfall in others, creating a "drought in a large area, flood in a narrow line" phenomenon [6][10]. - The intensity and frequency of localized extreme rainfall events are increasing, with significant implications for flood management and infrastructure [10][11]. Group 5: Adaptation and Preparedness - The article emphasizes the need for improved disaster preparedness and water resource management in light of increasing extreme weather events [12]. - It suggests that alongside disaster mitigation, there should be a focus on utilizing rainfall during flood seasons for water conservation in drier months [12].

新西兰地球科学（ESNZ）认为，今年发生拉尼娜现象的可能性降低。 ...

Weather Conditions - Continuous rainfall has been the main feature in Hangzhou since the onset of the plum rain season, with temperatures remaining relatively low, peaking at only 24.2°C [1] - The weather is expected to remain rainy, with significant rainfall forecasted for the upcoming days, including potential heavy rain and localized storms with accumulations of 20-40 mm, and some areas experiencing over 100 mm [2][3] Typhoon Forecast - A tropical disturbance in the South China Sea is likely to develop into the first typhoon of the year, named "Butterfly," expected to make landfall in southern China between June 13-14 [2][3] - The typhoon is anticipated to bring more rainfall than wind, necessitating preparations for both the typhoon and heavy rain in affected regions [3] Seasonal Rainfall Patterns - This year's rainy season in Zhejiang is characterized by a pattern of less rain early on and more later, with a higher risk of disasters during the plum rain period [6] - The average temperature in Zhejiang has been 1.1°C higher than the historical average, with significant rainfall recorded in early June, particularly in central and northern regions [6] Flood Preparedness - Zhejiang has implemented extensive flood prevention measures, including the appointment of 46,000 flood responsibility personnel and inspections of nearly 270,000 key points for potential issues [7] - The province is preparing for 3 to 5 typhoons this year, which is above the historical average, with the most significant impacts expected from July to September [6][7]

煤炭研究-气候的影响与复盘 20250512 摘要 • 2025 年春季中国中东部地区出现不同程度干旱，4 月中旬江苏、上海和广 东等地发生特旱，但随着春季降水增多，东部大部分地区干旱有所缓解， 甘肃、陕西、河南和江苏南部仍存在严重干旱。 • 降水偏少主要受太平洋年代际震荡（PDO）负位相和北大西洋年代际振荡 （AMO）正位相叠加影响，导致中国东部水汽输送受阻。拉尼娜状态也加 剧了冬春季降水偏少。 • 预计未来两周，西北地区东部及河南、江苏南部仍有中度以上气象干旱， 陕西南部和河南西南部或现特旱。南方将迎多雨天气，江南和华南西部降 水量较常年同期增多 3 至 6 成，局部暴雨。 • 今年汛期（6-8 月）极端天气事件多发，旱涝并存。长江以北降水偏多， 海河、黄河中下游、辽河及淮河流域汛情较重。华北、华东、华中、西南 及新疆等地将现间断性高温热浪。 • 预计今年登陆台风个数较常年偏多且强度更强，可能有一到两个影响我国。 台风路径主要受副热带高压影响，拉尼娜现象有利于台风在亚热带地区生 成。 Q&A 2025 年冬春季以来中国的干旱情况及其成因是什么？ 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 5 月 11 日，中国全国平 ...

2025/5/8 09:54 【国富期货早间看点】24/25 1900 25/26 3.62 20250508 【国富期货早间看点】24/25年马棕产量预计为1900万吨 路透预计 美豆25/26年期末库存为3.62亿蒲 20250508 2025年05月08日 07:41 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3718.00 | -1. 71 | -0. 24 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 60. 95 | -1.76 | -1.28 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 57.95 | -1.78 | -1. 40 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1039.25 | -0. 12 | -0. 62 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 295. 10 | 0. 75 | -0. 10 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47. 39 | -1.88 | -2. 37 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 年度加拿大油菜籽产量预计反弹 一项大宗商品研究报告显示，2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量预计为1820万吨，预估区间为1650-2010万吨，较上一 年度增长2.1%，尽管种植面积减少且面临来自其他作物的强劲竞争，而整个大草原南部地区的夏季天气前景总体不利。 总种植面积预计为859万公顷，较上一年度减少3.5%，较加拿大国家统计局（StatCan）在其主要大田作物面积报告 （3月12日）中最新预测的876万公顷减少1.9%。 由于植物油市场的复杂性，预计部分种植面积将从油菜籽转向小麦或其他春播作物。 油菜籽面积预计减少的主要原因是，与其他谷物、油籽相比，油菜籽的竞争能力较弱，因油菜籽的生产成本通常较 高，而且与大多数其他国内作物相比，往往需要施用更多的氮肥。 自 月份以来，萨斯喀彻温省西南部和马尼托巴省南部主要产区的土壤墒情一直徘徊在六年来的最低水平，值得关 注，尽管阿尔伯塔省的土壤墒情仍然相当健康。 夏季天气展望预计， 月至8月是作物的黄金生长期，气温将高于正常水平，整个大草原南部的降雨量将低于正常水 平，如果出现这种情况 ...