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外资看海外债!策略新调整,短债与区域分散配置受青睐
券商中国· 2025-06-13 05:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in institutional investor preferences from long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to short-term bonds due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path and rising U.S. fiscal deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Major asset management firms like BlackRock, Schroders, and Allianz are adopting a cautious stance towards long-term government bonds in developed markets, focusing instead on short-duration bonds and regional diversification [2]. - BlackRock's analysis indicates that the increase in U.S. Treasury yields since April reflects a normalization of global bond term premiums, leading to a preference for short-term bonds and Eurozone credit bonds [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - Schroders notes that the risk of a global economic recession has decreased, with current economic data appearing relatively stable, although uncertainties from tariffs and trade policies may still pose challenges [4]. - Allianz highlights a decoupling of U.S. Treasury yields from the dollar, suggesting that international investors are withdrawing capital from the U.S. due to concerns over Trump's policies [6]. Group 3: Eurozone Bonds - Eurozone bonds are gaining traction among institutional investors, with BlackRock favoring them over U.S. Treasuries due to rising yields and a more favorable valuation compared to similar U.S. assets [7]. - Schroders expresses optimism about the Eurozone's economic prospects, particularly due to Germany's fiscal stimulus and a relatively loose monetary environment [7]. - Allianz anticipates that the European bond market will benefit from a shift in investment funds towards the Eurozone, supported by stable interest rate policies from the European Central Bank [9].