以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 市场水温仿佛一夜之间 "变热"了！ 6月份的上证综指还"不愠不火"， 7月开始，上证指数一路高歌猛进，8月直接 突破3 700 点，于 8月1 9 日站上 3 746 点，创近 1 0 年新高。再叠加 "反 内卷"、"雅下水电站"等利好，市场情绪高涨，大家茶余饭后的谈资都变成 了"牛市是不是要来了？" 这正印证了霍华德 ·马克斯的《周期》中的所言：" 证券市场中的情绪波动，就像一个钟摆的运动一样。钟摆几乎大部分时间都在走极端，弧线两端各有 一个极端点，钟摆不是在摆向极端点，就是在摆脱极端点。事实上，正是钟摆摆向极端点这个运动本身，为钟摆后来反转方向回归中心点提供了能量 。" 在后台，我们也收到了不少留言，而其中问的最多的问题是：现在到底该不该卖？ 为什么会在回本甚至获益后想卖出？ 曾有人做过两个有趣的实验。 实验一： 方案 A：一定能获得3000元 方案 B：有80%的概率赚4000元，有20%的可能性一无所有。 赌一把回本的概率。 这就是为什么有时候你可以忍受 30 %的浮亏，却在 1 0%的浮盈后 急忙平仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant gains, while the Hong Kong stock market is facing downward pressure due to capital inflow to A-shares and recent adjustments in the US stock market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares reached a 10-year high with a trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan, marking the third-highest in history, and the total market capitalization has reached 107 trillion yuan [8]. - The Hang Seng Index's earnings have been continuously revised downwards, with a projected growth rate of -1.2% for 2025, contrasting with the upward revisions in the US stock market [7]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing bullish sentiment among investors regarding A-shares, with predictions of breaking the 4000-point mark before the National Day holiday [7][11]. - Notable economists express differing views on asset valuations, indicating that while some sectors have room for growth, others may be nearing their peak [11]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The tightening of Hong Kong dollar liquidity has led to a sharp rise in overnight Hibor rates, which may impact local real estate markets [5]. - The low AH premium at 125% is seen as an "invisible bottom," suggesting that below this level, dividend attractiveness diminishes [5].

Core Insights - The performance of FOF (Fund of Funds) products has been impressive this year, with over 90% achieving positive returns [1][4] - The asset allocation approach is described as having "no optimal solution," emphasizing the need for a stable analytical framework and diversified investments to avoid common pitfalls like "chasing gains and cutting losses" [1][3][6] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The manager, Tang Jun, advocates for a multi-faceted asset allocation strategy that includes objective standards and diversified returns to mitigate risks associated with market expectations [1][6] - Tang Jun's experience in quantitative investment has shaped his ability to identify market factors and adjust asset allocations dynamically based on market conditions [2][4] - The current allocation strategy has shifted towards A-shares, reflecting a responsive adjustment to market trends, with a notable increase in A-share allocation compared to Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Group 2: Market Insights and Tactical Adjustments - The positive performance of FOF products is attributed to effective diversification strategies, particularly during stable market conditions [4] - Despite uncertainties in external environments, domestic policy support is expected to provide a solid foundation for the A-share market, leading to a stable and potentially strong performance [5] - Tang Jun has actively engaged in tactical allocations within sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries, capitalizing on growth trends and market opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Behavioral Insights and Investor Guidance - The common mistake of "chasing gains and cutting losses" is highlighted, with recommendations for establishing an analytical framework based on objective standards to guide investment decisions [6][7] - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial for avoiding impulsive trading decisions, as market consensus often serves as a contrary indicator [7] - Investors are advised to differentiate between returns driven by style beta and alpha when selecting funds, which aligns with Tang Jun's quantitative research background [7]

Core Insights - The performance of public funds in the first half of the year has been significantly influenced by thematic investments, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector and the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][2] - Despite the high volatility associated with concentrated investment strategies, some fund managers have successfully achieved stable returns through diversified approaches [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - Many top-performing active equity funds in the first half of the year focused heavily on thematic investments, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics [2] - Growth-oriented fund manager Gao Nan achieved over 25% returns with a strategy that included both high-growth sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and semiconductor industries, as well as more stable sectors like home furnishings [2] - Value-oriented fund manager Lan Xiaokang's fund achieved a return of 17.44%, focusing on high-dividend stocks and sectors like finance and precious metals [3] - The cyclical fund managed by Ye Yong recorded a return of 26.62%, emphasizing investments in resource stocks such as precious metals and oil [4] - The quantitative fund managed by Yao Jiahong and Ma Fang achieved a return of 20.02%, with a diversified portfolio across various industries [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's new action plan aims to link fund manager compensation more closely to fund performance, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies [5] - Fund managers are expected to focus more on absolute valuation metrics, emphasizing cash flow, competitive advantages, and dividend capabilities [5] - The outlook for the equity market in the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of economic recovery and opportunities for fundamental resonance [6] - The "barbell strategy" is favored, focusing on both high-return, high-dividend assets and growth-oriented sectors, particularly in the technology and military industries [6]

Core Insights - The annual index conference held by Huaxia Fund highlighted the evolution of index investment strategies among different investors, emphasizing the importance of cognitive upgrades and strategic iterations in enhancing investment experiences [1][9]. Group 1: Investor Profiles - Xiong Siyuan transitioned from a confident "alpha" seeker to a focus on index investment and diversified allocation after facing challenges in the A-share market, now aiming to create excess returns through index-enhanced products [2]. - Ding Ying's investment journey spans 20 years, evolving from passive investment to active management, adjusting her portfolio from 90% bonds to a mix of 60%-80% bonds and equity, reflecting her growing risk tolerance and understanding [3]. - Ren Shuai, a user of the Hongse Huojian app, represents a younger demographic, moving from traditional bank savings to exploring tech-focused investments through funds, still identifying as a beginner in the investment landscape [4]. Group 2: Core Strategies - Ding Ying employs a strategy of "contrarian timing and dynamic balance," advocating for buying undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks, with a focus on 60%-80% allocation in government bonds as a stabilizing factor [5]. - Xiong Siyuan's framework includes "diversified allocation and index enhancement," emphasizing the importance of understanding risk tolerance and using tools to assess index valuations for informed investment decisions [6]. - Ren Shuai's approach is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, utilizing news events to identify investment signals and relying on community discussions to validate his investment strategies [7][8]. Group 3: Pitfalls to Avoid - Investors should be wary of "crowding traps," as highlighted by Xiong Siyuan's experience with excessive capital inflow into small-cap sectors leading to significant drawdowns, suggesting caution when popular funds are heavily promoted [9]. - Ding Ying warns against "mindless dollar-cost averaging," sharing her experience of incurring losses by continuing to invest in a declining market without trend analysis, advocating for a more strategic approach to investment timing [9]. - Xiong Siyuan advises caution with sector-specific indices due to their higher volatility compared to broad-based indices, recommending new investors limit their exposure to 5% of their portfolio [9]. Group 4: Investment Wisdom - Ding Ying emphasizes the importance of conscious investing, managing positions wisely, and taking profits during market exuberance [9]. - Xiong Siyuan suggests finding a set of long-term appreciating assets and maintaining a balanced allocation while investing during market dips [9]. - Ren Shuai encourages investors to discover their own "upward indices" to foster a positive investment journey [9].

Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is considered the only "free lunch" in investing, emphasizing the importance of effective diversification into negatively or lowly correlated assets while seeking higher certainty [1] Group 1: Investment Performance and Strategies - The performance of the 招银理财 products, such as the 嘉裕系列 and 智远系列, shows significant returns, with 嘉裕日开180天 achieving an 8.8% cumulative increase and an annualized return of 3.4% since its inception [2][3] - The investment team proactively adjusted strategies in response to market downturns, such as increasing gold allocations and reducing exposure to volatile equities, which helped recover losses quickly [4] - 招银理财 employs a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach, covering various asset classes including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, domestic bonds, US Treasuries, gold, futures, and options [4] Group 2: Team Structure and Operations - The 固收团队 (fixed income team) has undergone structural adjustments, elevating departments to enhance collaboration and efficiency, managing approximately 600 billion in fixed income products [8] - The investment management process is supported by a proprietary multi-asset management system that facilitates real-time monitoring and compliance, enhancing operational efficiency [10] - The team emphasizes collaboration over individual star managers, with a focus on collective decision-making and shared research among team members [14][15] Group 3: Risk Management and Return Control - 招银理财's products are designed with an absolute return focus, prioritizing risk management and minimizing drawdowns, with specific strategies in place to control volatility and ensure stable returns [12][24] - The 嘉裕系列 employs a down-side volatility control model, which mandates forced reductions in positions when drawdowns exceed predetermined thresholds [24][25] - The investment strategy includes a mix of defensive and offensive tactics, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and adjusting positions based on market conditions [30][41] Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Strategies - The 固收团队 anticipates opportunities in both stock and bond markets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a balanced approach to investment strategies [53] - The focus will be on structural alpha extraction in equities while maintaining a stable yield strategy in bonds, adapting to market fluctuations [53]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in institutional investor preferences from long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to short-term bonds due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path and rising U.S. fiscal deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Major asset management firms like BlackRock, Schroders, and Allianz are adopting a cautious stance towards long-term government bonds in developed markets, focusing instead on short-duration bonds and regional diversification [2]. - BlackRock's analysis indicates that the increase in U.S. Treasury yields since April reflects a normalization of global bond term premiums, leading to a preference for short-term bonds and Eurozone credit bonds [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - Schroders notes that the risk of a global economic recession has decreased, with current economic data appearing relatively stable, although uncertainties from tariffs and trade policies may still pose challenges [4]. - Allianz highlights a decoupling of U.S. Treasury yields from the dollar, suggesting that international investors are withdrawing capital from the U.S. due to concerns over Trump's policies [6]. Group 3: Eurozone Bonds - Eurozone bonds are gaining traction among institutional investors, with BlackRock favoring them over U.S. Treasuries due to rising yields and a more favorable valuation compared to similar U.S. assets [7]. - Schroders expresses optimism about the Eurozone's economic prospects, particularly due to Germany's fiscal stimulus and a relatively loose monetary environment [7]. - Allianz anticipates that the European bond market will benefit from a shift in investment funds towards the Eurozone, supported by stable interest rate policies from the European Central Bank [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increased demand for stable investment options amid economic uncertainties and declining yields from traditional financial products [4][5]. Group 1: Market Growth - As of May 22, the total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 260 billion yuan, marking an 81.6% increase from the end of 2024, significantly outpacing the growth of stock ETFs [2][4]. - The surge in bond ETF popularity is attributed to the need for diversified asset allocation among institutional and individual investors [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs offer strong liquidity, low fees, and high transparency, making them attractive to investors seeking to mitigate risks through diversified investments [4][5]. - The introduction of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs aims to enhance the development of credit bond ETFs, which are essential for managing credit risk and improving liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The deep market-making credit bond index has shown a cumulative increase of 11.38% since its base date, outperforming the comparable AAA credit bond index by 161 basis points, with a maximum drawdown of only 0.97% [8]. - The bond ETF adopts a "T+0" trading mechanism, significantly enhancing liquidity and operational efficiency for various trading strategies [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, selecting suitable bond ETFs involves focusing on tracking error control and the operational capabilities of fund managers [11]. - The Guangfa credit bond ETF has a tracking error of only 0.0095%, positioning it favorably among its peers and contributing to its rapid growth in assets under management [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond ETF market is expected to continue expanding as long-term funds, such as pensions and insurance, increasingly seek diversified investment options [12]. - The inclusion of credit bond ETFs in the repo pledge library is anticipated to further enhance their liquidity, making them a viable option for personal investors looking for capital preservation and growth [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing preference of investors for diversified asset allocation to seek relative certainty and mitigate risks, with over 80% of FOF products achieving positive returns as of May 16, 2025 [1][3] - The unique advantage of FOF is its diversified allocation strategy, which includes a selection of actively managed funds, passive index funds, QDII funds, and alternative funds, enhancing the diversity of income sources [1] - In the first quarter, FOF fund managers actively utilized their allocation advantages by investing in equity ETFs, increasing exposure to Hong Kong and overseas markets, and positioning in popular sectors such as gold, technology, and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, two major trends in FOF asset allocation are emerging: diversification, with a significant increase in the proportion of commodity funds, QDII funds, and mutual recognition funds; and passive investment, with a growing reliance on index funds to lower investment costs and improve efficiency [1] - The FOF product managed by GF Fund's asset allocation department exemplifies the characteristics of diversification and passive investment, holding a variety of ETFs and maintaining a low concentration with no single fund exceeding 4% of the total [3] - As the advantages of FOF allocation become more prominent, FOF funds are gaining recognition from an increasing number of investors, with the total market size of public FOF products reaching 151.1 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9 billion yuan from the previous quarter, marking a new high in nearly a year [3]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the removal of U.S. sovereign debt from the highest credit rating category by all three major rating agencies [1] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a "safe haven" asset and a core "anti-dollar" asset by global investors, especially in light of the U.S. credit rating downgrade [1][2] - Wall Street institutions are predicting a prolonged "dollar bear market," driven by the chaotic economic policies of the Trump administration [1][4] Group 2 - The current global economic design is fundamentally based on a debt model, where borrowing is often used to purchase tangible assets [3] - In a moderate inflation environment, equities like stocks are expected to perform well as they represent shares of productive assets [3] - The sentiment among Wall Street investors remains bearish on the dollar, with many hedge funds believing that a multi-year "dollar bear market" has just begun [4][5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, forecasting $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [5][6] - In extreme risk scenarios, gold prices could potentially rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that investor allocation to the dollar has dropped to a 19-year low, with 57% believing the dollar is overvalued [6][7] Group 4 - The "BIG strategy" proposed by Bank of America, which involves holding U.S. Treasuries, international stocks (excluding the U.S.), and gold, has shown to provide superior returns compared to the "Trump trade" [7]