美股市场正行走于刀锋之上。一方面，美国就业市场的疲软信号愈发明确，经济失速的风险正在累积；另一方面，市场对美联储重启降息的预期也因此升温。 高盛认为，未来两个月将是决定性的观察期，这场增长与政策的拉锯战，将影响美股和债市的下一步走向。 据追风交易台消息，高盛顶尖交易员多米尼克·威尔逊（Dominic Wilson）在最新研报中写道， 当前投资的核心挑战在于，如何找到既能从市场预期的美联储 降息中获益，又能在美国深度经济衰退风险成为现实时提供保护的投资标的。 对于全球股市而言，这同样是一场微妙的平衡游戏。报告指出，只要能够避免深度下行风险，美股就可以继续"攀爬忧虑之墙"。然而，考虑到市场对增长放缓 的定价已较为充分，且衰退风险依然高企，股市的回调风险比以往更高。 同时，市场已重新定价美联储的宽松路径，9月降息的可能性很高。短期美债收益率仍有下行空间，并且在更激进的降息预期下，2年期与5年期美债收益率曲 线可能进一步陡峭化。 就业市场亮起红灯：转折点信号值得警惕 7月份的非农就业报告，尤其是对前几个月数据的大幅下修，彻底改变了游戏规则。高盛强调，这一变化已将市场和决策者的注意力引向了美联储双重使命中 的"就业"一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with concerns about recession and expectations for interest rate cuts creating a challenging environment for investors [1][3] Economic Signals - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with increasing risks of economic slowdown [3] - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, which may signal a turning point in the economy [4][5] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring but no large-scale layoffs, aligning with other signs of economic weakness [4] Interest Rate Expectations - The market has shifted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a high likelihood of a cut in September [6] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has increased to more than two [6] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline further, with the yield curve for 2-year and 5-year bonds potentially steepening [6] Investment Strategies - Investors face the challenge of finding assets that can benefit from expected rate cuts while also providing protection against the risk of a deep recession [3] - Options products betting on accelerated rate cuts are becoming attractive as a "recession protection" tool due to declining market volatility [7]

Investment Perspectives - Passive investment, as perceived, should be neutral, consistently profitable, and risk-free [1] - Examples of passive income include money market funds, short-term US Treasury bonds, arbitrage robots, and subscription fees [2] - Some define passive investment as stocks, ETFs, and bonds, which can incur losses, blurring the line between passive and active strategies [3] - The definition of passive investment is questioned when losses occur, suggesting a disconnect between the expectation of passive income and the reality of market fluctuations [3]

美财长：或会在初期通过发行短债来满足融资需求 金十数据7月4日讯，美国财政部长贝森特周四表示，共和党的全面减税和支出法案颁布后，美国的融资 需求可能会上升。在债务上限限制解除后，财政部可能会通过增发短期美债来补充国库账户的资金。贝 森特表示："这项立法也帮助我们摆脱了那个糟糕的债务上限困境，正因为如此，我们此前不得不限制 发行债务。因此，我们很可能会在初期通过发行短期美债来补充财政部的一般账户。" ...

Core Insights - The U.S. long-term bond funds are experiencing the largest capital outflow in five years, with a net outflow of $11 billion in Q2 2025, marking the highest since the market turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - This sell-off reverses a trend of average inflows of $20 billion over the previous 12 quarters, indicating deep investor anxiety regarding the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The outflow reflects broader concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook, exacerbated by rising debt levels, inflation, and supply issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Debt Concerns - The U.S. is facing a "debt tsunami," with projections of trillions in additional debt over the next decade due to tax reforms, leading to accelerated Treasury issuance to cover deficits [1] - Market trust in fiscal sustainability is rapidly eroding, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs' chief credit strategist [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to trigger imported inflation, which poses a significant threat to long-term bonds [2] - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real purchasing power of fixed interest payments [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The U.S. Treasury's accelerated borrowing to fill deficits has led to a supply-demand imbalance in long-term bonds, with prices dropping approximately 1% this quarter and 30-year yields nearing 4.82% [3] - Bill Gross warns that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to break below 4.25% due to fiscal deficits and a weak dollar contributing to inflation [3] Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to long-term bonds, short-term Treasury funds attracted over $39 billion this quarter, indicating a significant shift in investor strategy [4] - Investors are opting for shorter maturities to lock in yields while avoiding long-term inflation risks, with expectations of delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until 2026 [4] - The preference for liquidity is heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, leading to a focus on more liquid short-term assets [4] Group 5: Global Implications - The sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries is prompting a global reallocation of capital, with institutions like PIMCO reducing exposure to the dollar and long-term bonds [5] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's, sovereign funds are accelerating diversification into gold and non-U.S. bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.49% [5] - There is an increasing demand for risk compensation, as investors anticipate needing higher returns on the long end of the yield curve, despite the core status of U.S. Treasuries remaining intact [5] Group 6: Historical Context - The current scale of Treasury sell-offs has surpassed the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and the bond market crash of 2022, suggesting that if U.S. fiscal discipline continues to falter, the process of "de-dollarization" may accelerate, reshaping the global financial landscape [6]

Group 1 - Investors are fleeing U.S. long-term bond funds at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic began five years ago, with nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the second quarter, marking a stark contrast to the previous 12 quarters' average inflow of $20 billion [1] - The outflow reflects deep anxiety regarding the U.S. fiscal path, as the proposed tax reform is expected to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade, leading to a significant increase in bond issuance [1][2] - The current environment is characterized by high volatility and inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, causing panic in the long end of the yield curve and general unease among investors [2] Group 2 - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real value of fixed interest payments, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury prices by approximately 1% this quarter [2] - In contrast, over $39 billion flowed into short-term U.S. Treasury funds this quarter, as these funds offer attractive yields amid the Federal Reserve's high short-term interest rates [2] - Investors may prefer to diversify their bond holdings globally, but the U.S. Treasury market is not expected to lose its status as a core asset in global fixed income portfolios [3]

Core Insights - The passage of the GENIUS Act is expected to formally integrate USD stablecoins into a regulatory framework, creating a new channel for global non-USD liquidity to flow into the U.S. market, thereby reinforcing the dollar's global dominance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Treasury Securities - The GENIUS Act mandates that all stablecoins must be backed 1:1 by high-quality, low-risk liquid assets, particularly U.S. Treasury securities maturing within 93 days, which will increase demand for short-term U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. - Research indicates that inflows from stablecoins can lower the 3-month Treasury yield by 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days, while outflows can raise it by 6-8 basis points, with Tether (USDT) having the most significant impact [2][3]. Group 2: Risks to Traditional Banking - The U.S. Treasury has warned that allowing stablecoins to pay interest could divert significant bank deposits to these more flexible digital assets, posing a threat to the stability of the traditional banking system [3]. - To mitigate this risk, the GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits stablecoins from paying interest, preventing direct competition with bank deposits [3]. Group 3: Global Digital Dollarization - The regulatory framework established by the GENIUS Act is accelerating the global digital dollarization process, particularly in countries with unstable currencies and high inflation [4]. - A survey sponsored by Visa revealed that 47% of crypto users in countries like Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, India, and Indonesia use stablecoins primarily for saving dollars to hedge against local currency depreciation [4]. - The share of stablecoin transactions occurring outside North America is projected to exceed 80% in the future, indicating rapid global expansion [4]. Group 4: Cost Efficiency in Cross-Border Remittances - Stablecoins are emerging as a low-cost, efficient alternative for cross-border remittances, with average costs ranging from 0.5% to 3.0%, compared to the global average of 6.62% for traditional remittances [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in institutional investor preferences from long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to short-term bonds due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path and rising U.S. fiscal deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Major asset management firms like BlackRock, Schroders, and Allianz are adopting a cautious stance towards long-term government bonds in developed markets, focusing instead on short-duration bonds and regional diversification [2]. - BlackRock's analysis indicates that the increase in U.S. Treasury yields since April reflects a normalization of global bond term premiums, leading to a preference for short-term bonds and Eurozone credit bonds [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - Schroders notes that the risk of a global economic recession has decreased, with current economic data appearing relatively stable, although uncertainties from tariffs and trade policies may still pose challenges [4]. - Allianz highlights a decoupling of U.S. Treasury yields from the dollar, suggesting that international investors are withdrawing capital from the U.S. due to concerns over Trump's policies [6]. Group 3: Eurozone Bonds - Eurozone bonds are gaining traction among institutional investors, with BlackRock favoring them over U.S. Treasuries due to rising yields and a more favorable valuation compared to similar U.S. assets [7]. - Schroders expresses optimism about the Eurozone's economic prospects, particularly due to Germany's fiscal stimulus and a relatively loose monetary environment [7]. - Allianz anticipates that the European bond market will benefit from a shift in investment funds towards the Eurozone, supported by stable interest rate policies from the European Central Bank [9].