原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月24日 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 764.5 | 769.5 | -5.0 | -0.65% | | | 原木2603 | 770.0 | 778.0 | -8.0 | -1.03% | | | 原木2605 | 781.0 | 783.5 | -2.5 | -0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -16.5 | -14.0 | -2.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -30.0 | -38.0 | 8.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -24.5 | -29.5 | 5.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The log futures fluctuated yesterday. The main contract LG2603 closed at 778 yuan per cubic meter, down 1 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The latest round of FOB quotes was 112 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. The inventory decreased significantly on a weekly basis, and the demand declined slightly. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports decreased by 40% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 41% week - on - week. The recent log futures price has recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, the later shipment volume is expected to decrease. The demand remains stable but weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On December 22, compared with December 19, the price of log 2601 was 769.5, down 2.5 (- 0.32%); log 2603 was 778.0, down 1.0 (- 0.13%); log 2605 was 783.5, unchanged. The 01 - 03 spread was - 8.5, down 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was - 14.0, down 2.5. The 03 - contract basis was - 38.0, up 1.0; the 01 - contract basis was - 29.5, up 2.5 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged from December 19 to 22, with no change in price or percentage change. The FOB prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged from December 19 to 26 [2] - **Import Cost**: On December 22, compared with December 21, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.032, down 0.003 (0%); the import theoretical cost was 775.12, down 0.26 (0%) [2] 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In November, the port shipment volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (- 6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49.0, down 5.0 (- 9.26%) [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: As of December 19, compared with December 12, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (- 4.41%); the inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, down 7.1 million cubic meters (- 3.77%); the inventory in Jiangsu was 61.52 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters (- 9.85%) [2][3] 3.4 Demand - **Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly)**: As of December 19, compared with December 12, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (- 2%); in Shandong, it was 3.34 million cubic meters, down 0.10 million cubic meters (- 3%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.52 million cubic meters, up 0.02 million cubic meters (1%) [3] 3.5 Forecast of Log Arrival - From December 22 - 28, 2025, there were 9 pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports, 6 fewer than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%. The total arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3]