1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Slow resumption of hot metal production, and ore prices are under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak market sentiment, with repeated fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuations in market trading sentiment, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Tightening demand expectations at the ore end, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Improving demand, with prices oscillating at a high level [2][20] 3. Summary by Category Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan or 0.62%. The trading volume was 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) was 777.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in ore prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.33%. The trading volume was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. Among spot prices, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In March, the output of rebar decreased by 5.46 tons, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.4 tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2605 futures contract was 5,874 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan. The trading volume was 166,212 lots, and the open interest was 158,901 lots. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In March, the silicon - manganese production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased. However, starting from April 1, many enterprises announced production cuts. A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6,580 yuan/ton in late March [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a bearish outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan or 5.4%. The trading volume was 863,734 lots, and the open interest was 396,170 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots. The spot price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 31, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain trends. The online auction of coking coal had a high rejection rate, and the market sentiment was weak [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 820.5 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.7%. The trading volume was 4,637 lots, a decrease of 15.2%. The open interest was 11,027 lots, a decrease of 3.2%. The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/m³, unchanged [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy - based financial instruments [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in industrial profits for January-February 2026 is primarily driven by a low base effect and revenue improvement, with profits rising 10.1 percentage points year-on-year to 15.2% [2][9][80] Revenue - Revenue for January-February 2026 saw a substantial increase, supported by better-than-seasonal performance in both domestic and external demand, with consumption, investment, and export growth rates rising by 1.9, 16.9, and 15.3 percentage points to 2.8%, 1.8%, and 21.8% respectively [2][15][80] - The petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experienced revenue improvements, with cumulative year-on-year revenue growth for these sectors rising by 7, 8.8, and 8 percentage points to -0.7%, 7.5%, and 6% respectively [2][15][80] Industry Contribution - The non-ferrous metal-related industries significantly contributed to overall profit growth, with non-ferrous selection and processing boosting profits by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% and 6.1% respectively [3][21][80] - Chemical raw materials and oil and gas extraction also made notable contributions to overall profits, increasing by 4.5 and 0.9 percentage points to 1.4% and -1.2% respectively [3][21][80] Cost Structure - The cost rate for industrial enterprises fell to 84.8%, remaining stable compared to previous years, with the petrochemical and metallurgy chains showing lower cost rates than the previous year [3][24][80] - The cost rates for oil and gas extraction and non-ferrous selection saw significant declines, with reductions of 22.8% and 8% respectively [3][24][80] Inventory - The nominal inventory for industrial enterprises increased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6%, while the actual inventory growth rate rose by 0.6 percentage points to 7.3% [7][65][80] Future Outlook - The recent surge in oil prices may lead to price increases in the petrochemical chain, but could also pressure profit margins and demand, with expected impacts becoming evident around May 2026 [4][41][82]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in industrial profits for January-February 2026 is primarily driven by a low base effect and revenue improvement [2][9][80]. Revenue - In January-February 2026, the cumulative revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, up from 1.1% in the previous period, supported by better-than-seasonal performance in both domestic and external demand [2][8][80]. - The growth rates for consumption, investment, and exports rose by 1.9, 16.9, and 15.3 percentage points respectively, reaching 2.8%, 1.8%, and 21.8% [2][15][80]. - Revenue improvements were noted across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical chain, metallurgy chain, and consumer chain showing cumulative year-on-year revenue increases of 7%, 8.8%, and 8 percentage points respectively [2][15][80]. Industry Contribution - The non-ferrous metal-related industries significantly contributed to overall profit growth, with non-ferrous selection and non-ferrous rolling contributing 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to the profit increase, reaching 1.8% and 6.1% respectively [3][21][81]. - The chemical raw materials and oil and gas extraction sectors also made substantial contributions, increasing overall profits by 4.5 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively [3][21][81]. Cost Structure - The industrial enterprises' cost rate fell to 84.8%, remaining stable compared to previous years, with the petrochemical and metallurgy chains showing cost rates of 85.7% and 87.1%, which are lower than the previous year's figures by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points [3][24][81]. - Significant reductions in cost rates were observed in the oil and gas extraction and non-ferrous selection sectors, with declines of 22.8% and 8% respectively [3][24][81]. Future Outlook - The recent surge in oil prices may lead to price increases in the petrochemical chain, but could also negatively impact profit margins and demand, with a transmission lag of about three months expected [4][41][82]. - If the average crude oil price rises by $10 per barrel in 2026, the profit growth rate for the petrochemical industry could decline by 8%, potentially dragging down overall profit growth by approximately 1.1 percentage points [4][41][82]. Regular Tracking - Industrial profits showed a notable increase, with cumulative profits rising by 15.2% year-on-year, up 10.1 percentage points from the previous month [5][44][83]. - The revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises improved, with significant increases noted in the leather, footwear, and wood industries [5][44][83]. - Inventory growth rates have generally declined, particularly in the mid and downstream sectors, with nominal inventory rising by 2.7 percentage points to 6.6% year-on-year [7][65][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: Negotiations and games intensify price fluctuations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Multi - and short - side markets play games, with wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - Logs: Cost expectations weaken, and prices correct [2][15] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The closing price of I2605 was 817.0 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan/ton or 1.30%, and the position decreased by 6,288 hands to 408,026 hands [4] - Spot prices: Imported ore and some domestic ore prices increased slightly, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged [4] - Basis and spreads: Some basis values decreased, and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Price fluctuations are due to structural contradictions in cost and inventory, including rising freight and low port inventory [4] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, and the GDP growth target is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [4][5] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (trend intensity: 0) [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: RB2605 closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.35%, and HC2605 closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Positions decreased [8] - Spot prices: Some prices in different regions decreased or remained unchanged [8] - Basis and spreads: Some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - On March 26, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different changes [9] - Various steel - related production, inventory, and trade data in March and 1 - 2 months of 2026 are provided [10] - Real estate investment decreased, and industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased in 1 - 2 months of 2026 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral for both rebar and hot - rolled coil (trend intensity: 0) [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and trading volumes and positions varied [12] - Spot prices: Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the price of manganese ore remained unchanged [12] - Spreads: Various spreads such as spot - futures spreads, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News** - Price quotes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are provided [12] - A company's manganese ore price quote increased [14] - Some silicon - iron furnaces were restarted [14] - Steel mills had new procurement plans and prices [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (trend intensity: 0) [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes [15] - Spreads: Various spreads changed, with significant percentage changes in some spreads [15] - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, with only a few showing small fluctuations [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, and the GDP growth target is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (trend intensity: 0) [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Near - end trading shows marginal improvement, and prices are firm [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, intraday fluctuations will intensify [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Due to the fermentation of market sentiment, both will have wide - range fluctuations [2][14]. - Steam coal: The sentiment is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][18]. - Logs: Demand is recovering, and prices are rising [2][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 824.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton (0.61%). The open interest increased by 3,958 to 445,891 hands. Among the spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 3.0 yuan/ton to 960.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price increase is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, including rising energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable goods. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased. The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 228.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.95 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,145 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.10%); the closing price of HC2605 was not clearly stated. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The daily output of steel products decreased. The real estate investment from January to February decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, while the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The import and export of steel and iron ore also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2605 was 6,480 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan. Spot prices generally increased, and the basis and spread also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased on March 24. Some silicon - iron furnaces were restarted. Some enterprises set the purchase price. There are news that manganese - alloy plants will start production cuts on April 1 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,249.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 3.1%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan (- 2.7%). Spot prices of some coal types increased, and the basis and spread changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 24, the CCI metallurgical coal index increased. The coking coal online auction had no unsold items, with an average premium of 94.64 yuan/ton, and coal prices generally rose [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal in Shanxi Datong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 593.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 24, the market sentiment in northern ports was positive, but there were differences in views on the future market. The national raw coal output from January to February decreased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties also changed, such as the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.3% [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The demand for logs recovered, the port inventory decreased, and the prices rebounded. The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report was adjusted, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is at a high level technically, with intensified fluctuations [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate strongly due to high sentiment in the raw material sector [2] - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to sector sentiment resonance [2] - Silicomanganese has high bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to position risks [2] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate strongly as market sentiment ferments [2] - Steam coal has strong sentiment, and port transactions have moved up [2] - Log prices are strengthening marginally and rebounding [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 819.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43%. The price of various iron ore types increased to varying degrees, with the price of domestic iron ore rising more significantly. The basis and spreads also changed [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The rise in iron ore prices is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, such as increased energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable products. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, and the 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 increased, with trading volumes and positions changing. Spot prices in various regions also rose. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and production decreased. In March 19th steel union weekly data, production increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. There were also data on real estate investment, industrial added value, and steel import and export [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1 [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased, and spot prices also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding fluctuations [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some silicon - iron furnaces were put into production, and the impact of cyclone on manganese ore was being evaluated. There was data on manganese ore import volume and inventory, and the procurement prices of some steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1 [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Data**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and spot prices of some coking coals and cokes remained unchanged. The basis and spreads changed [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index increased, and the coking coal online auction had no unsold lots, with prices rising. The first round of price increase for coking coal by mainstream coking enterprises was officially launched [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [16] Steam Coal - **Price Data**: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas all had certain changes, and the long - term agreement prices also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 23rd, the sentiment in the northern port market was positive, and it was expected that port prices would continue to rise. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal (based on the spot price of steam coal in northern ports) is 1 [20] Logs - **Price Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed. The prices of log spot markets in different regions and varieties had different degrees of change, and the spreads also changed [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: The increase in demand, the rapid increase in port departure, and the increase in sea freight led to a price rebound. The GDP growth target was adjusted in the 2026 government work report, and the Shanghai real estate policy was optimized [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 1 [24]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the outlooks are as follows: - Oils and fats: Oscillatory [7][8] - Protein meals: Oscillatory [9] - Corn: Oscillatory [10][11] - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening [11] - Natural rubber: Oscillatory [12][14] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory and strengthening [15] - Cotton: Oscillatory and strengthening [16] - Sugar: Oscillatory [18] - Pulp: Oscillatory [20] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [20][22] - Logs: Oscillatory [23] Group 2: Core Views - The overall agricultural market is currently characterized by complex and diverse trends, with different commodities showing various price movements and supply - demand relationships. The market is significantly influenced by factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitics, and seasonal patterns. For example, the hog market is facing high supply and weak demand, while the oil and fat market is affected by geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics in the international market. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Oils and fats continue to oscillate. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, affecting the cost of vegetable oils. Different types of oils have their own supply - demand situations. For example, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in the first half of March, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [8]. Protein Meals - **View**: Trading is清淡, and the two major protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) oscillate in a narrow range. International factors such as inflation concerns in the US, geopolitical tensions, and the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest affect the price of soybeans, which in turn impacts protein meals. Domestically, the import cost has slightly decreased, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The spot market has light trading volume [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory [9]. Corn - **View**: The market maintains a tight balance, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is affected by factors such as farmers' selling rhythm and the increase in wheat supply. The demand from downstream enterprises is mainly for replenishment, and the market is in a state of game between supply and demand [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short - term. In the medium - term, it has a bullish tendency based on the annual supply - demand balance [11]. Hogs - **View**: Supply remains high, and hog prices continue to decline. In the short - term, supply exceeds demand due to high inventory and low consumption. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will continue until August 2026. In the long - term, hog prices may gradually pick up in the third quarter of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and weakening. It is recommended that the industrial sector consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year and anti - arbitrage strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The macro - environment is weak, and rubber prices continue to decline. The market is affected by the macro - economic downturn, the expected high yield in the Yunnan production area, and the decline in tire orders to the Middle East [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price is relatively firm. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a reduction in the supply of butadiene, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. The price will remain strong in the short - term if oil prices continue to rise [15]. Cotton - **View**: The macro - sentiment is bearish, and cotton prices continue to correct. The fundamentals are generally good, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upside is limited in the short - term [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a long - term buying strategy on dips [16]. Sugar - **View**: Short - term domestic and international sugar prices oscillate with oil prices. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, but oil price fluctuations may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil, thereby influencing sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [18]. Pulp - **View**: Pulp shows signs of stabilizing after continuous decline. The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and low downstream demand. However, the cost provides a certain support [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and resistance at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [20]. Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates weakly. The market is generally stable, with some price increases. The paper mills have inventory pressure, and the demand from downstream printers is average. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20][22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [22]. Logs - **View**: Geopolitical factors increase the volatility of logs. The price is mainly driven by cost factors, such as the increase in freight and exchange rate. In the short - term, the futures price oscillates strongly, but in the medium - term, it may face pressure due to increased supply [23]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 830 yuan/cubic meter [23]. Group 4: Commodity Index Data - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2569.19, with a change of - 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, with a change of - 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, with a change of + 0.39%. - The agricultural product index on March 19, 2026 was 968.39, with a daily change of - 0.19%, a 5 - day change of - 1.96%, a one - month change of + 4.04%, and a year - to - date change of + 3.79% [185][187].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Iron ore shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should be held continuously [2][4]. - The market sentiment for rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and they will fluctuate widely [2][7]. - In the short term, due to the influence of the geopolitical situation, the long - short game of silicon iron and manganese silicon commodities intensifies [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - The price of thermal coal is rising in the producing areas and stabilizing at the ports [2][17]. - The cost of logs is rising, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [2][19]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 811.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.67%); the open interest decreased by 6,207 hands. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads changed to some extent [4]. - **News**: Near - term prices rebounded due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,310 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.21%). Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **News**: In February 2026, the decline in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow. There were changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. Import and export data of steel and iron ore also changed. The CPI rose, and the PPI decline narrowed. There were policies related to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and real estate [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2605 and 2607 decreased, as well as those of manganese silicon 2605 and 2607. Spot prices of silicon iron decreased, and that of manganese silicon increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **News**: There were price quotes from iron alloy online, and the daily output of silicon iron increased. Some steel mills determined the purchase prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1156.5 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton (-1.7%); the closing price of J2605 was 1721.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (-0.6%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: There were changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index. The coking coal online auction had a 10% non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 53.35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices in the producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased slightly, and the port prices remained stable. The long - term agreement prices increased slightly [17]. - **News**: The market sentiment in the northern ports was positive on March 18. The national raw coal output from January to February 2026 decreased slightly year - on - year [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, and there were changes in spreads [19]. - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and there were real estate policies in Shanghai [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Most products are expected to have an oscillatory trend, and some are expected to show a weakening or strengthening trend in the medium - to - long term [1][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - specific lows [6]. - **Protein Meal**: Double - meal continues its oscillatory trend. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Corn**: The market maintains a tight balance. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [9][11]. - **Hogs**: Pig sources are abundant, and prices are falling. The short - to - medium - term outlook is oscillatory and weakening, while the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [1][10][11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment on the disk has weakened, and the rubber price has temporarily broken through the support level. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The disk is slowly moving down. If crude oil continues to rise, the disk will remain strong in the short term [14]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is correcting and testing the lower support. The outlook is oscillatory and strengthening, and corrections may be opportunities for long - positions [15]. - **Sugar**: Thailand's sugar production has increased year - on - year. In the short term, domestic and foreign sugar prices will oscillate following oil prices. In the long term, there is still upward pressure on prices [15][16][17]. - **Pulp**: The weakness of softwood pulp remains unchanged, and futures continue to decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [18]. - **Offset Paper**: As pulp weakens, offset paper prices are moving down. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [19][21]. - **Logs**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment, log prices are weakening. In the short term, the disk will oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, it will operate within a range [22]. 2. Key Data of Each Product - **Hogs**: On March 18, the national average hog price was 10.02 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of - 0.3%; the closing price of hog futures (active contract) was 10,475 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 2.06% [1][10][11]. - **Protein Meal**: On March 18, the international soybean trade premium quotes were 229 cents/bu for US Gulf soybeans, 213 cents/bu for US West soybeans, and 140 cents/bu for South American soybeans. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 231.08 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of - 63.29 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 2,382 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 0.17% [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber at Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: On March 18, the Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract closed at 15,210 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 205 yuan/ton [15]. - **Sugar**: On March 16, the Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract closed at 5,343 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 63 yuan/ton, or - 1.17% [15]. - **Pulp**: The price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Offset Paper**: On March 18, the daily market price of 70g white peony offset paper in Shandong was 4,450 yuan/ton [19]. - **Logs**: On March 18, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/m³, and the main contract of logs closed at 806 yuan/m³, with a decrease of 0.68% [22]. 3. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2,581.98, with a decrease of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2,916.20, with a decrease of 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2,557.35, with a decrease of 0.31%. The agricultural product index was 970.26, with a daily decrease of 0.38%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 4.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.99% [185][187].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]