2026 年 2 月 26 日 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/11 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | 777 | 1.1% | 2.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | 2566 | 150.7% | 87% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | 3972 | -35.5% | -64% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796 | 789 | ...

最高法院刚宣布特朗普那套全球征税的玩法越权，不到一天，这位总统就直接把所有进口商品的临时税率从10%拉到15%。 这不是简单的加码，而是对司法裁决赤裸裸的回击。 他压根没打算退让，反而用更硬的手段把整个国际贸易推入更深的混乱。 法院周五裁定，特朗普去年援引《国际紧急经济权力法》开征关税，超出了总统权限。 法官们说得清楚：这种涉及全国税收的重大调整，必须由国会点头。 可特朗普听完裁决后怒火中烧，不仅骂大法官是"国家的耻辱"，还立刻翻出另一部法律——《1974年贸易法》第122条，作为新武器。 这条款几十年没人动过，但它确实允许总统在所谓"国际收支失衡"时，征收最高15%的关税，有效期150天。 他现在就卡在这个缝隙里，把10%变成15%，声称这是"法定且经过法律检验"的操作。 他在"真实社交"上发声明，语气强硬得像在宣战："这些国家几十年来一直在掠夺美国，没人管——直到我出现！" 这句话不是情绪宣泄，而是政策逻辑的核心。 他不认为自己在破坏规则，而是在纠正长期被忽视的"不公平"。 他要的不是谈判，是单方面重设规则。 150天对他来说不是限制，是缓冲期。 他计划在这段时间内打磨一套"法律上无懈可击"的长期关税体系 ...

2026年02月25日 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期不佳，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料与现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.5 | -0.74% | | | I2605 | | 740.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 519,204 | 24,654 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

在裁决公布后，特朗普宣布将征收新的10%全球性临时关税。圣保罗工业联合会提醒，美方还决定依 据"301条款"启动新的调查程序。巴西自2025年7月起已处于"301调查"之下，这意味着巴西产品可能比 其他国家更早面临新关税。 新华财经圣保罗2月21日电（记者杨家和）巴西圣保罗工业联合会20日表示，美国最高法院裁决认定特 朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，有助于撤销此前对巴西等国加征的关税，但美国政府通过其他法律工具 征收新的关税，巴西产品出口仍面临不确定性。 圣保罗工业联合会在声明中指出，美国最高法院判定特朗普对巴西加征40%关税违法，对巴西出口构成 利好，但是形势"仍需谨慎评估"，将密切关注后续动向。 圣保罗工业联合会特别提示，美国以"国家安全"为理由实施的关税措施仍然有效，对钢铁、铝制品、木 材和汽车等战略行业的关税未在此次最高法院裁决范围之内。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美国官员正威胁要对与墨西哥和加拿大的贸易协议进行重大调整，这可能会颠覆现有的商业模式，并将 加拿大排除在外。 本月初，特朗普找到了向加拿大施压的新杠杆：一座预计将于今年开通的连接两国的新桥。特朗普威胁 要阻断该桥的开通。知情官员透露，特朗普并非对桥梁本身感兴趣，而是希望以此迫使加拿大在贸易上 做出让步。 特朗普于2月9日在社交媒体上表示："在北美大国得到充分补偿，且加拿大以我们应得的公平和尊重对 待美国之前，我不允许这座桥开通。"这一威胁预示了他在重新谈判贸易协定时将采取的高压手段。根 据他首个任期签署的法案，《美墨加协定》（USMCA）定于明年夏季进行审查。 美国官员一直在加大对加拿大的压力。特朗普威胁封锁底特律至温莎大桥，只是他针对加拿大总理卡尼 的一系列冲突中的最新一例。去年10月，因安大略省在美国投放的一则引用里根总统抨击关税言论的广 告，特朗普一度中止了贸易谈判，最终以卡尼道歉告终。 特朗普政府列出了一份要求卡尼让步的清单，包括加拿大长期受保护的乳制品行业等宿怨。另一个紧迫 问题是，为反击特朗普对加拿大的关税，安大略省等省政府控制的酒类分销商去年将美国酒类下架。 此外，卡尼在全球范围内加强与他国贸易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution challenging the Trump administration's tariffs on Canadian goods, marking a rare congressional check on executive power, especially with six Republican members breaking party lines to support the measure [1][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - Trump's tariffs, initiated in early 2025, included a 25% additional tariff on most Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on energy products, leading to a 15% decline in Canadian exports to the U.S. and an average annual increase of $1,500 in costs for American consumers [5][10]. - The tariffs resulted in a 20% reduction in trade volume between the U.S. and Canada, with Midwestern farmers losing significant export opportunities due to market closures [5][9]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Six Republican lawmakers expressed deep concerns over the economic negative impacts of Trump's tariff policy, indicating a fracture within the Republican Party [3][10]. - Trump's threats against dissenting Republican members highlight internal party divisions and dissatisfaction with his trade policies [3][10][11]. Group 3: International Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's early 2026 visit to China aimed to enhance cooperation in energy and technology, which Trump perceived as a challenge to U.S. global dominance [7][9]. - Following the House resolution, Chinese investments in Canada, particularly in electric vehicle components and high-tech sectors, are expected to increase, indicating a shift in supply chain dynamics [11][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The House's action signals a potential shift in congressional oversight of trade policies, with future emergency measures likely facing increased scrutiny [11][12]. - Economic reports suggest that removing tariffs could lower U.S. inflation by 0.5 percentage points, but Trump's opposition to such proposals indicates ongoing trade tensions [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a chemical research report on log market, specifically the Log Daily Report dated February 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Log prices (daily) and wood square prices (daily) for different types of logs and wood squares at various ports are presented, with all prices showing 0.00% day - on - day and week - on - week changes [2] - Futures volume and price data for LG2603, LG2605, and LG2607 contracts are provided, including closing prices, changes, and volume/position changes [2] Group 3: Market Review - On February 10, the log spot market was stable. Prices of different grades of radiata pine logs in Rizhao remained unchanged [4] - The closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 777 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous trading day [5] Group 4: Important Information - In January 2026, 74 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a month - on - month decrease of 14.94%. The total arrival volume was about 166.81 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%. Among them, 45 ships were from New Zealand, with an arrival volume of about 147.45 million cubic meters, accounting for 88% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.69% [7] - From February 2 to February 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 5.15 million cubic meters, a 16.53% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 3.28 million cubic meters, a 15.68% decrease, and that at Jiangsu ports was 1.29 million cubic meters, an 18.87% decrease [7] Group 5: Logic Analysis - Supply pressure is increasing marginally; demand is dragged down by the Spring Festival off - season, with the average daily outbound volume decreasing by 16.53% month - on - month. The foreign market price in February increased by 3 - 5 US dollars, raising the procurement cost. The increase in supply and weak demand will suppress prices in the short term, but the rising cost forms a bottom support. Also, the low inventory buffers the supply shock. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the post - festival demand resumption rhythm needs to be monitored [7] Group 6: Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - For arbitrage, take profit on the 3 - 5 reverse spread [8] - For options, wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing log and wood square prices, import CFR prices, port log inventory, and other related data [11][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the log futures market is weak, with the main contract dropping significantly by 2.28% to 772.0 yuan/cubic meter as of the report date [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In the week from January 31 to February 6, New Zealand ports shipped a total of 12 vessels carrying 440,000 cubic meters of logs, an increase of 4 vessels and 140,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [2] - As of February 6, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 2.38 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65%; radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, down 1.94%; North American material inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09%; and spruce/fir inventory remained stable at 110,000 cubic meters [2] Group 2: Pricing Trends - On the spot market, the price of radiata pine logs in Shandong was quoted at 754 yuan/m, an increase of 14 yuan/m; in Jiangsu, the spot price was 784 yuan/m, also up by 14 yuan/m; the import CFR price was at 113 USD/m, a week-on-week increase of 3 USD/m [2] - Overall, the spot market prices are stable, with a recent reduction in log arrivals, leading to a tightening supply situation. However, demand remains weak as processing plants begin to close for the Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures notes that the recent reduction in log arrivals is leading to a tightening supply, and after digesting supply shocks, log prices are expected to stabilize [4] - Green Dahan Futures highlights a complex market with mixed factors affecting log futures. Prices for 3-meter wood in the Lianshan area continue to rise, providing strong support for demand. If the price transmission mechanism for wood is smooth, there is potential for further price increases in the spot market, leading to a positive outlook for radiata pine prices post-holiday [4]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. unilaterally raising tariffs on South Korean goods, which has led to disappointment from South Korea's ruling Democratic Party [1][2] - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on South Korean exports such as automobiles, timber, and pharmaceuticals from 15% to 25%, citing the lack of approval of the U.S.-Korea trade agreement by the South Korean National Assembly [1][2] - South Korea's government is assessing the implications of the U.S. actions and is committed to ongoing negotiations through video conferences [1][2] Group 2 - The trade agreement framework established in July 2025 requires South Korea to meet three core obligations, including a $350 billion investment in the U.S. and a $100 billion procurement of energy products [2] - There is significant domestic criticism in South Korea regarding the trade agreement, particularly concerning the unilateral tariff increase by the U.S. without prior consultation [2][3] - Experts suggest that the U.S. is using tariffs as a tool to pressure allies into increasing investments, which could undermine the existing international order [3]