Report Information - Report Title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Cao Jianlan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early April, there is still supply pressure on logs. It is expected that the arrival of goods will improve marginally from the middle of the month. If the subsequent inventory reduction intensifies and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the current decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and entering the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound strength. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. At the same time, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment, increasing market uncertainty, and market sentiment fluctuations should be vigilant [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all declined on April 9 compared to April 8, with decreases of - 0.24%, - 0.06%, and - 0.18% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts all increased [2] - Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 9 compared to April 8. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine decreased by - 0.87% on April 11 compared to April 4, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2] - The import theoretical cost decreased by 3.74 yuan to 822.61 yuan on April 8 compared to April 7, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 yuan to 7.345 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters from December 31 to February 28, with a growth rate of 50.98%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, with a growth rate of 18.37% [2] Inventory - As of April 4, the total log inventory in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a decline rate of - 0.28%. Inventory in Shandong increased by 9 million cubic meters (4.74%), while inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [3] Demand - As of April 4, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a growth rate of 7% [3]